2024 Offseason Preview: Rock bottom for the Tennessee Titans
2024 Offseason Preview: rock bottom for the Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans took a leap forward with the 2018 hiring of head coach Mike Vrabel, and seemed poised to enter the NFL’s elite. Instead, they fell apart as quickly as they emerged, costing general manager Jon Robinson his job. Now Vrabel and new GM Ran Carthon must pick up the pieces and figure out how to get back to their winning ways.
On November 17th, 2022, the Tennessee Titans defeated the Green Bay Packers to move to 7-3 on the season. On the heels of seasons where the team finished 12-5 and 11-5, things looked pretty good for Nashville’s team.
That was the end of the Titans’ successful run, however. The team lost seven straight games to close the season. After the second loss, a 35-10 drubbing at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles, the team fired general manager Jon Robinson. The optics looked bad—Robinson had traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles prior to the season, only to see him explode for 119 yards and two touchdowns in a game where the punchless Tennessee offense could muster only 11 first downs.
Aside from the disastrous Brown trade, the Titans made other missteps that eroded their talent base, even during the period with positive on-field results. The team cut 2020 first-round pick Isaiah Wilson after only one game. The next year’s first-rounder, Caleb Farley, hasn’t played a lot more, suffering a litany of injuries. The team found itself in cap trouble, which in part prompted Brown’s trade and let effective contributors like Jack Conklin, Corey Davis, Adoree’ Jackson, and Jonnu Smith leave in free agency. Big free agent signing Bud Dupree flopped, and trade target Julio Jones proved past his prime.
All that leaves the Titans where they are today: last place in their division with a record of 5-8, the 25th scoring offense in the league, and one of the weakest core talent bases in the NFL. They have a lot of work to do.
Leadership
Owner: Amy Adams Strunk
General Manager: Ran Carthon
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel
Amy Adams Strunk took over as owner in 2015 after a period of upheaval that began with her father Bud’s death in 2013. Bud Adams founded the Houston Oilers as an original AFL franchise in 1959, and moved the team to Tennessee for the 1996 season. Strunk’s emergence has largely overlapped with this good stretch for the Titans, with the team hiring Robinson in 2016 and Vrabel two years later.
Vrabel, a longtime standout player for the New England Patriots, rose quickly through the coaching ranks in his second career. He began as a positional coach for his alma mater, Ohio State, in 2011, jumped to the NFL in 2014, and after just one season as defensive coordinator for the Houston Texans, earned the Titans head coaching gig. His overall record stands at 53-42 despite the recent struggles, and he’s well-regarded.
Carthon joined as general manager in January and inherited little cap space, so it’s tough to judge his tenure so far. He comes from the progressive wing of the New England scouting school, having worked under Thomas Dimitroff, Les Snead, and John Lynch / Adam Peters with the Falcons, Rams, and 49ers, respectively.
Building Blocks
The situation is bleak. The team’s two highest-graded offensive players per Pro Football Focus are running back Derrick Henry, 29 years old and a pending free agent, and 31-year-old receiver DeAndre Hopkins. The offensive line has been OK, with 2023 first-round pick Peter Skoronski playing well at left guard and 2021 second-rounder Dillon Radunz contributing at four positions. Quarterback Will Levis, the 33th pick in the draft, has flashed. Rookie third-rounder Tyjae Spears has shown signs he can step into Henry’s shoes as the starting running back.
Defensively, there are more pieces. Interior lineman Jeffery Simmons has been one of the game’s better defensive tackles, and the team locked him up through 2027. Roger McCreary, the team’s second-round pick in 2022, has performed well, mostly playing slot corner. This season’s best story might be linebacker Jack Gibbens, an undrafted rookie in 2022 out of Minnesota who has emerged as a starter.
Needs
As you might imagine from the “building blocks” section, the needs are pretty much everywhere. The run game should be fine, even with Henry’s contract voiding, but the passing game desperately needs help behind Hopkins. Treylon Burks, selected with the pick the team got for Brown, has disappointed so far at receiver. The team has failed to fill Smith’s shoes at tight end. Left tackle Andre Dillard, signed from the Eagles, has shown the same struggles he did in Philadelphia.
The run defense ranks sixth in the NFL through 13 games at a stingy 3.8 yards per carry, but the pass defense has been rough, allowing 6.5 yards per attempt. The secondary particularly has been a problem. The team traded star free safety Kevin Byard earlier in the season, pressing 2021 third-rounder Elijah Molden into action. PFF currently ranks Molden 82nd of 89 safeties. Cornerback Kristian Fulton has been even worse.
Assets
Carthon has done an admirable job reversing the team’s cap picture after inheriting a team projected to be $23 million over the cap. The Titans are eating more than $54 million in dead money in 2023 per Over the Cap, but their prize will be an NFL-best $84.9 million in 2024 cap space.
Carthon did give away the team’s 2024 third-rounder in trading up to select Levis at the top of the second round, leaving the Titans a bit short on draft capital. They project to pick high in the first and second rounds given their poor record, but that third-rounder likely would land in the top 75.
Prognosis and Plan
The 2023 season has been something of a holding pattern, flushing the salary cap and righting things for the future. Years of missed draft picks and free agent signings that didn’t pan out leave the team needing to build back their base of talent.
The ground game largely paved the way for the successful run from 2019 to 2021. Henry, the 2020 Associated Press Offensive Player of the Year, proved an untackleable monster at 6’3”, 247 pounds. Robinson built a quality offensive line to open running holes. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith dialed up a complementary play action attack that let the passing game thrive despite low volume. From 2019 to 2021, they ranked 10th, 2nd, and 1st in rush attempts and 31st, 30th, and 25th in pass attempts.
But with Henry a free agent, and 30 years old even if the team does re-sign him, the team should re-assess if the ground game is the best ticket to success in the modern NFL. Even with a unicorn like Henry, the running attack has taken a step back over the past two seasons; without him, they figure to be ordinary. Carthon and Vrabel must find ways to augment the passing game to offset the dropoff with the run attack.
With some cap space to work with and a couple high picks in the draft, the Titans braintrust must set a new vision for the team. They need talent almost everywhere; how they prioritize, evaluate, and execute on their vision will determine if they can get back to their winning ways or continue their recent losing.