Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards
Best Bet: Under 25.5 (-110)
This is Mahomes' fourth Super Bowl appearance since 2019. In his three previous appearances, one having been against the 49ers in 2020, Mahomes has yet to miss this mark of 25.5 rushing yards, with 29 yards being his lowest rushing total in any Super Bowl.
The more a quarterback has to scramble to avoid a defensive front's pass rush, the more prone they are they to picking up yards with their legs. This year's 49ers defense ranks in the bottom 10 in both hurry percentage (5.4%) and blitz percentage (18%). However, even with the lack of blitz calling, the Niners' defense managed to rank 7th in sacks this year, pressuring the quarterback on 21% of dropbacks.
With the lack of hurries and the minimal blitz calling, Mahomes is most likely going to be pretty well contained by the 49ers. In three career meetings against San Francisco, Mahomes averages just 12 yards per game on the ground. Over the Chiefs last nine games, Mahomes has only eclipsed this 25.5 yard mark three times. Expect the 49ers defense to account for Mahomes' ability to scramble by implementing a spy on obvious passing situations using their speedy linebackers such as Fred Warner and Oren Burks.