The anatomy of success or failure as a number one drafted quarterback
Since 2010, 11 quarterbacks have been taken with the number one overall pick. Many of them have had average to above-average careers: Here's looking at you, Baker Mayfield. Others have shown flashes of greatness but whose careers have stalled or crashed and burned: Cam Newton has entered the group chat. And some have set their teams back for years as failures: with his benching this week, Bryce Young appears to be next in that lineage.
The NFL is all about talent; without it, no player succeeds. But a number of specific factors impact whether a number one overall pick elevates his team from the doldrums to the promised land or costs his team a valued pick, and maybe more. In this day and age of "franchise quarterback or death," teams often give up additional draft capital to move up to pick number one. These factors determine whether a top prospect becomes a franchise savior or killer.
1. NFL physical abilities and development
Most number-one picks are selected because of their performance in college, 8 of the 11 quarterbacks picked since 2012 won the Heisman Trophy in college. But what drives success in college doesn't always translate to the NFL. And not every QB develops the skills needed to be a good, great, or elite quarterback in the "league." What skills a rookie brings into the league, and his ability and drive to gain and improve those skills, are a main factor to his success, or failure, at the next level.
2. Franchise stability and infrastructure
The number one pick in the NFL, absent a trade, goes to the team with the worst record. As a result, the team he joins will generally be...bad. But a bad team isn't always a badly run franchise. The stability and sound decision-making of an owner, general manager, and coaching staff are directly related to the successes and failures of rookie quarterbacks. Quarterbacks, more than any other position, rely on the infrastructure of a team to develop the player himself, provide the talent around him, and create a culture of winning.
3. "Pandora's box" - Injuries, character, and leadership
The NFL draft combine is like a first date; everyone wears their best clothes and behaves as if their mother is on their shoulder parsing every word they say and every action they take. Before entering the league, teams coddle star players through high school and college so NFL teams are presented with an image of a player that doesn't fully reflect the player they'll have to coach when things get tough and the losing starts. Injuries also play a key role in a player's trajectory towards success or failure in the league. These intangibles, along with the leadership qualities, or lack thereof, of a quarterback greatly impact his future in the NFL
Let's look at how each category played a role in the successes of MVPs and Super Bowl champions, some quarterbacks who had some success but never reached the top of the mountain, and some top prospects who did not live up to their top-pick billing.
The Successes - One NFL MVP, one Superbowl champ, and some bad Luck
2011 - Cam Newton - 2015 NFL MVP who could have been more
- Franchise Stability - (C+) Cam Newton was drafted by the Carolina Panthers who, at the time, were owned by Jerry Richardson, coached by Ron Rivera, and whose general manager, Marty Hurney, who was a long-time executive with the team. While Richardson was rightfully forced out of the league, he brought NFL football to Charlotte, and Rivera and Hurney were stable leaders whose staff alumni include current Buffalo Bills head coach, Sean McDermott.
- Physical Abilities - (A+) Cam Newton was a unique blend of physical size, athletic ability, and arm talent. At 6'5", 245 lbs, Cam Newton could make every throw and had elite quickness and speed. These traits were the driving forces that won him a Heisman and his magical 2015-2016 season where Newton won the NFL MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, and tallied a 15-1 record for a Panthers team that lost Super Bowl 50 to the Denver Broncos.
- Injuries and Character - (F) A player as physically talented as Cam Newton usually lasts over 10 years in the NFL. However, Newton endured numerous injuries during his NFL career. While Newton suffered rib and back injuries in a mid-season car accident early in his career; starting in 2016, Newton suffered a concussion, a Lisfranc injury, ligament damage to his knee, and multiple shoulder injuries that eventually ended his career in 2022. Newton also struggled with questions about his character, from the time he was drafted, to his messy breakup with the Panthers.
Andrew Luck - Injuries derailed a career that "could have been"
Andrew Luck joined an Indianapolis Colts team with a meddling owner in Jim Irsay but with a stable front office with general manager Ryan Grigson and head coach Chuck Pagano running the show for most of his career. Irsay is crazy; like really crazy, but he allowed Grigson and Pagano to do their jobs and the Colts have historically put together good teams. This continued around Luck who had good talent around him; except on the offensive line.
It was the Colts' inability to protect him that led to injuries that would end his career before he could reach the top of the mountain. But Andrew Luck had hall-of-fame talent and was one of the best quarterbacks in the league for most of his short career.
The "middlemen" - Where a change of scenery or circumstances is vial to success
Baker Mayfield - From hero to zero to redemption
Franchise Stability - (Cleveland - F / Tampa Bay B+) Baker Reagan Mayfield was drafted number 1 overall by the Cleveland Browns; fresh off a winless season and a 1-31 record over two seasons. To say the Browns have been a dumpster fire since their reincarnation in 1999 is an insult to dumpsters and a gross understatement. Mayfield joined a team that had 2 winning seasons in the 20 seasons before he arrived. To help Baker's transition to the NFL, the Browns brought in John Dorsey, who had some success with the then San Diego Chargers, at GM, and Gregg Williams, the defensive coordinator for the 0-16 Browns was elevated to head coach. Jimmy Haslam is a "hands-on" owner which is often the mark of the beast when trying to build an NFL team.
Physical skills and development - (C) Mayfield, a Heisman trophy winner with Oklahoma, brought more guts and moxie than a prototypical NFL skillset with him to the league. Mayfield measured 6' tall at the combine; celebration of which showed the borderline "first-pick" physical skill set he possessed. Mayfield had early success with the Browns; driven largely by his ability to distribute the ball to talented skill players and a dominant run game. Mayfield can make a lot of, but not all of the, throws great quarterbacks have to make. He never developed the touch needed to master the middle of the field and his arm's strength limits his outside and deep passing game.
Injuries, Character, and Leadership - (Early Baker - D+ / "New Baker A) - Baker Mayfield came with a number of warning signs of immaturity. He attempted to plant a flag...into concrete. He was arrested after drunkenly "fleeing" from campus police. Early on, Mayfield struggled to accept his role in the team's struggles and his comments about teammates didn't show the leadership expected from a franchise quarterback. But in Tampa, after real struggles in Cleveland, Carolina, and Los Angeles, Baker has shown maturity and developed into a leader with the Buccaneers. It's always easier to show those qualities when you're winning, but the current version of Baker Mayfield is a player who can lead the talented Buccaneers to the playoffs.
Jared Goff and Matt Stafford - Good but great?
Both Matt Stafford and Jared Goff brought in NFL ready skill sets as rookies. And Matt Stafford, in an organization that couldn't get out of its own way, or stop drafting first-round wide receivers for multiple consecutive years, put up huge numbers during the early part of his career. But his organization's failures kept him from reaching his potential. Goff had early success as well in Los Angeles, but his inability to get the Rams to the Super Bowl led to a trade, swapping Stafford for Goff in 2021.
The Lions are a different organization now, driven largely by a solid, unassuming, Brad Holmes as general manager, and a dynamic and galvanizing force as head coach in Dan Campbell. Under this regime, with great talent around him, Jared Goff has a shot at a Super Bowl and is justifying a number one overall selection. Matt Stafford has made himself a hall-of-fame candidate with a Super Bowl win with the Rams. Both have stayed healthy, have elite talent, and thrived once in the right organization.
The Franchise Killers - Failures that result in years of team struggles
Bryce Young - A story not completed but so far, a terrible read
Franchise Stability - (F) - The Carolina Panthers that drafted Cam Newton are not the Panthers that drafted Byce Young number one overall in 2022. The Panthers moved from pick 9 to pick 1 in the 2022 draft by trading the talented DJ Moore and three future draft picks; one of which was used by the Chicago Bears to select Caleb Williams number one overall in last April's draft.
David Tepper, the current Panther's owner insists on being involved in all "important" team decisions, The Panther's front office has been in constant flux under Tepper who has fired 5 coaches in three years and 3 general managers in the past five years. The Panther's skill level is below league average, including an offensive line that has allowed Bryce Young to be sacked 68 times in his 18 games as a pro.
Physical skills and development - (F, with room for improvement) - Bryce Young's size (he measured 5'10" and 205 lbs.) concerned many front-office executives at the combine. Given his lack of dynamic playmaking with his legs, in contrast to similar-sized Kyler Murray, Young has struggled in his NFL career to make the standard throws from the pocket required to succeed in the league. Given his benching two games into the NFL season,
Young's development is well below what the Panthers expected from their number 1 pick. However, some regard has to be given to the lack of playmakers around him and the turnstile nature of his offensive line. Young may have a chance to develop on another team, but for now, his NFL passing skills do not justify his draft status.
Injuries, Character, and Leadership - (Incomplete) Bryce Young has missed one game due to an injury in his rookie season. Sadly, this may be his most impressive stat as a pro, but it does speak to toughness as Young was the second-most sacked quarterback in the league in his rookie year. Young brought with him from USC a reputation as a solid leader with a calming influence in the chaos that can be high-stakes college football.
Coming into the 2024 season, Young was credited for growth and maturity in preparing for his second season as a pro. However, his benching angered the young signal caller; he was described as pissed and hurt by the decision. While losing one's job is understandably frustrating, Young's inability to control his emotions, in opposition to his normal character, may show an inability to process his benching in a positive manner going forward.
Sam Bradford and JaMarcus Russell - Case studies in injuries and over drafting
Sam Bradford won a Heisman Trophy and Rookie of the Year in his first year with the then St. Louis Rams. The Rams, under Stan Kroenke, have never been an "A," or an "F" franchise. Had Bradford stayed healthy, he may have had a career worthy of a number-one overall selection. The same cannot be said about JaMarcus Russell.
The then Oakland Raiders, under the late Al Davis, fell in love with the physical traits of the 6'6", 265 lbs. Russell. The fables of his athletic ability and Davis's hubris to be the smartest owner in the NFL led to the misstep of drafting the LSU product number 1 in 2007. Russell did not have the physical skills, or desire, to be an NFL-quality product. In his defense, he was drafted to a terrible organization, but he remains a cautionary tale to all teams with the number one overall pick.