NFL predictions: Predicting passing touchdown leaders for the 2024 season
The 2024 NFL Season is quickly approaching, so let's try to predict the passing touchdown leaders for the upcoming season. The 2023 NFL passing touchdown leaders can be viewed here, and it's a list filled with elite quarterbacks.
Will some of the same faces pop up in the 2024 NFL Season? It's likely. And it's also likely that some other QBs truly put their name on the map and cement their status as an elite QB in the NFL. Let's try to predict the passing TD leaders for the 2024 NFL Season.
NFL predictions: Predicting passing touchdown leaders for the 2024 season
5. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins - 30
Rounding out the top-5 will be Tua Tagovailoa, who will top his 2023 total by one touchdown and throw 30 in the 2024 NFL Season. For as prolific as the Miami Dolphins offense has been over the last two seasons, Tagovailoa has never thrown 30 touchdowns in a season.
Across his four-year career, his 17-game average comes out to 26 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. However, across the last two seasons in the Mike McDaniel era, Tua is averaging 31 touchdown passes per 17 games.
Getting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle back again for another year together should make for another strong season from Tua Tagovailoa, and he'll hit the 30-touchdown mark in 2024.
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - 30
Patrick Mahomes threw just 27 touchdown passes in the 2024 NFL Season, which still ranked eighth in the NFL. We all know how good Mahomes is, as he's once thrown 50 in a season before and has four total seasons with at least 37 touchdown passes.
I do believe the Kansas City Chiefs WR room is a bit of a problem, and it's worth wondering if TE Travis Kelce can still be productive given he's approaching his late-30s, but Mahomes is still going to churn out another fine regular season, perhaps throwing 30 touchdowns and around 8-12 interceptions.
3. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers - 32
Brock Purdy threw 31 touchdown passes in the 2023 NFL Season. Through 25 regular season games, Purdy has thrown 44 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. Across a 17-game season, Purdy averages 30 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, which is insane production.
People seem to have very different opinions on Purdy, but he's given us 25 regular season games, and he looks like an elite quarterback. He'll throw one more touchdown pass in 2024 than he did in 2023 and again rank very high in many categories among his QB peers.
2. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans - 34
CJ Stroud threw just 23 touchdown passes, but we all saw just how amazing his rookie season was, and the year two jump for many quarterbacks is real. Stroud will be another year immersed in the NFL and now has Stefon Diggs to throw to, including the return of Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
Stroud is going to win the NFL MVP award, and he'll do so tossing 34 touchdown passes, among many other great individual statistics. How could you not be very high on the 2024 Houston Texans?
1. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers - 37
From Weeks 7-18, Jordan Love threw 24 touchdowns against five interceptions. This stretch over a 17-game season would have given Love 34 touchdowns against seven interceptions and a stellar 103.4 rating. When you consider just how young the Green Bay Packers offense was in 2023 and just how much better they can get, it's hard to not be extremely high on Love for 2024.
He threw 32 touchdown passes in 2023 and will increase that number by five for the 2024 NFL Season, giving him 37 on the year and the lead among QBs in touchdown passes.