AFC West
1. Kansas City Chiefs: 13-4
The Kansas City Chiefs may have gotten really lucky last year in some of their one-score games, but this team is still just flat-out good. I don’t know if they are 13-win good, but are you going to project their downfall? The Chiefs feel like a team that sort of sleepwalks through the offseason and just pulls out wins whatever way they need to at the drop of a hat. I could see Kansas City dropping to 11 or 12 wins but dropping from 15 to 13 seems like a pretty reasonable projection right now.
2. Denver Broncos: 12-5
The Denver Broncos have substantially improved since Sean Payton took over as their head coach, to the surprise of absolutely no one. This team won nine games last year by nine or more points, but struggled to finish one-score games (1-6). They now have an even better defense which ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and Bo Nix had a historically good rookie year. This team won 10 games with $90 million in dead cap working against them. Another jump is likely.
3. Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
The Jim Harbaugh era got off to a solid start as the Chargers made it back to the playoffs and were awesome all year defensively. Sadly for them, they stunk it up in the playoffs again and Justin Herbert played the worst we had seen from him all year on the biggest stage. The Chargers found a way to Charger. I’m skeptical this team has made the changes necessary to truly compete for an AFC West title but Jim Harbaugh’s teams are always tough.
4. Las Vegas Raiders: 9-8
How much can Pete Carroll do to change the losing culture with the Raiders? Well, he’s got himself a quarterback in Geno Smith and one of the best weapons in the 2025 rookie class in Ashton Jeanty. The Raiders still are a work in progress defensively, but with Maxx Crosby, it’s like they’ve got 12 guys out there anyway. I think they’re going to be one of the most improved teams in the league but still rough around the edges.