We can't overreact to what we've been seeing in the NFL preseason, but that doesn't mean we have to completely ignore it, either.
Even when it comes to a topic as big as the NFL MVP, certain players at the quarterback position are already giving us some great indicators of what we can expect for the upcoming season.
Right now, it feels like there are a trio of quarterbacks being slept on as legitimate MVP candidates in 2026. That doesn't mean these guys are guaranteed to be in the race, but they might have a better shot at winning the award than the masses are assuming at this point. These players do not currently have the best odds to win MVP, some outside the top 10 for the oddsmakers completely.
Let's take a look at three of the top sleeper MVP candidates for the 2026 NFL season, and what makes us confident these candidates will actually be in the mix.
Top 3 sleeper NFL MVP candidates at quarterback in 2026
3. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
We've said it before, and we'll say it again: Trevor Lawrence was maybe the most underrated star in the second half of the 2025 NFL season regardless of position.
From Week 10 through the end of the regular season, the Jaguars were a perfect 8-0 as a team, and it was mostly thanks to Lawrence's stellar individual efforts (although the team played well as a whole, of course). He was undoubtedly the catalyst.
He threw for over 2,000 yards in those 8 games with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions (3 of which came in one game vs. the Cardinals). He also added 5 rushing touchdowns and fumbled just one time. That combination of efficiency and ball security is MVP-caliber. Extrapolated over an entire 17-game sample, that would have put Lawrence on pace for 48 Total TDs and over 4,000 yards passing.
Again, those are MVP numbers he was putting up. It was one of the first times we've truly seen the former #1 overall pick look like a superstar in this league. Not that he hasn't played well before, even for stretches of time, but the second half of the 2025 season was the best extended stretch of ball Lawrence has played.
Now, the question is: Can he build on that in 2026?
2. Bo Nix, Broncos
There will be some who scoff at this, and others who see the vision.
Quarterbacks are already some of the most polarizing players in the NFL regardless of position, but Bo Nix seems to be one of those guys who hits both ends of the spectrum on an extreme level. Since he was playing at Oregon, the NFL conensus has had a very "love-hate" relationship with Nix.
But one thing nobody can deny is the way he played in clutch moments last season for the Denver Broncos. Nix engineered 7 game-winning drives for the Broncos last season, 8 if you include the Divisional Round of the playoffs. His 7 game-winning drives in the regular season last year are tied for the 2nd-most for a QB in a single season in NFL history.
There are valid arguments to be made about Nix starting games slower than he should, or being too erratic at times to be an MVP, but he looks poised to make a massive leap in his third NFL season. The arrival of Jaylen Waddle is going to be huge for Nix's development, as well as the Broncos pivoting to Davis Webb calling plays for the offense.
It was only one preseason game, but we can see a lot more downfield concepts in Denver's offense with Webb calling plays, and having more downfield attempts will give Nix a chance to load up the stat sheet and put up MVP-caliber numbers.
1. Jordan Love, Packers
There isn't a more underrated star quarterback in the NFL right now than Jordan Love. He is currently sitting somewhere between the 11th- and 13th-best odds to be NFL MVP this upcoming season. That's pathetic.
Or easy money, depending on who you are.
I'm not a betting man, but the odds coming out of Vegas can serve as a great launching-off point for some conversation, and a conversation needs to be had about Jordan Love.
He's dealt with some injuries over the past couple of seasons, but he has the MVP goods when he's healthy. He's got one of the best arms in the NFL. He has a great understanding of Matt LaFleur's offense, and those two are on the same page. He takes good care of the football. He's got the ability to make big plays with his legs and get outside the pocket.
Especially given the injury to Micah Parsons, Love has a chance to really put the Packers on his back unlike any player in team history outside of Greg Jennings. He could emerge early this season as an MVP front-runner.
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