Week 1 QB Bold Predictions: Patrick Mahomes flops while Aaron Rodgers dominates

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers | Michael Owens and Joe Sargent/GettyImages

We made it. Gone are the long days of summer and football is here to stay a while. The 2025 NFL season kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Dallas Cowboys led by Dak Prescott and Micah -- ope.

Moving on, we'll just say most fans are thrilled for this season's opening weekend after an eventful offseason (more eventful for some teams than others, I'll add).

As we get set to watch some of the brightest stars under center in Week 1, how about some bold predictions to kick us off? Remember, every single one of these will absolutely, definitely, 100 percent actually happen. Make sure you hold me to them come next week.

Patrick Mahomes finishes with less than 200 passing yards, more interceptions than touchdowns

This is more about the Chargers than it is Patrick Mahomes, to be fair. Last year, Los Angeles' defense finished with the league's seventh-best pass defense and the fourth-best turnover differential. To some fans, this might be a bit surprising considering this is a defense that has consistently not lived up to what it could be over the last few years.

Name

Odds to leave Week 1 with a smile

Brittany Mahomes

<1%

Taylor Swift

<1%

Jesse Minter

Pretty good, Bob

Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter did that in his first year with the team, by the way.

Mahomes will be without Rashee Rice in this one, but he'll still have Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce as his top pass catchers. In Mahomes' two games against the Chargers last year, he averaged 227 passing yards and the Chiefs failed to score 20 points. Just remember that.

Aaron Rodgers goes for 300 yards in a Steelers win over the Jets

Logic would tell you that the Steelers have a better shot at running the ball on New York, but when it comes to Aaron Rodgers, logic is always out the window. Going up against his former team, a team Rodgers knows well, he is going to start the season with a bang. The Steelers get a victory, while Justin Fields suffers one more loss to a familiar foe.

Baker Mayfield accounts for 4 touchdowns in a Bucs win over Atlanta

QB Name

Wins vs. Falcons in 2024

Baker Mayfield

0

We will keep this one short and sweet. Don't think the Buccaneers aren't ready to avenge going 0-2 against the Falcons in 2024. Baker Mayfield begins the season an an absolute heater, accounting for four scores. Here's another bold prediction for you: rookie wide receiver Emeka Egbuka catches two of them.

Daniel Jones throws three touchdowns en route to a Colts win over the Dolphins

We can talk about the Dolphins' injuries in their defensive back field and the concerns with Tyreek Hill on offense, but that's a story for another day. This is about Daniel Jones, who will surprise everyone when he tosses a trio of touchdowns and leads the Colts to a Week 1 victory. Jones has been given a true chance at redemption, and at least against this Dolphins defense, he'll take advantage.

The Dolphins' secondary might be the worst in football thanks to both injuries and departed talent. Now, their pass rush on the other hand, is a problem. That's going to be a tall task for the Colts' offensive line to keep up with. You know, I've almost talked myself out of this one. But, hey, I'm sticking with it. Jones has a huge game and the Colts win.

Jayden Daniels and Russell Wilson both fail to throw a TD pass

This game has the makings of one dominated by the ground.

Last year, both the Commanders and Giants finished as a top-10 pass defense. Likewise, they also finished as a bottom-6 run defense.

I think the Commanders will look to justify their trading of Brian Robinson and try to establish a healthy run with the rest of their back field led by Austin Ekeler. Do we see an early Jacory Croskey-Merritt breakout?

Meanwhile, the Giants feature both Tyrone Tracy and Cam Skattebo early and often against a Commanders defense that allowed over 137 rushing yards per game in 2024.

Bills hold Lamar Jackson to under 200 total yards in a Week 1 victory over Baltimore

For his career, Jackson has averaged about 172 passing yards per game against Buffalo if you take out the one outlier back in September of 2018 where he only attempted four passes. Along with that, Jackson has averaged 46.5 rushing yards against Buffalo (including the postseason). Do the math, and Jackson typically puts up a mediocre performance against the Bills, on average.

The Ravens are still worried about the Bills. Just ask newly-paid Kyle Hamilton. You better believe that. Jackson is only 3-3 against the Bills over his career, again, including postseason play. In Week 1, this year, the Bills get the best of him and Jackson is held mostly in check.

Caleb Williams finishes with 300 total yards against the Vikings on Monday Night Football

As good as Brian Flores' defense was last year, his unit still finished 28th against the pass. Vikings fans will tell you they're still concerned about an outside cornerback room featuring Jeff Okudah and Isaiah Rodgers, so look for Caleb Williams to exploit that with guys like Rome Odunze and DJ Moore.

Ben Johnson's offense has been designed for Williams to get the ball out a lot quicker, which will help him avoid getting sacked at such a high rate. Not to mention, the offensive line is much improved. But, Johnson will also allow Williams to get outside the pocket and use his legs at times; an underrated aspect of his game.