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How much could Julio Jones help the Falcons as a decoy?

By Kevin Parvizi

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Atlanta Falcons star wide receiver Julio Jones had a then-career day in Week 13 in an upset victory over the Arizona Cardinals, roasting an elite cornerback in Patrick Peterson with ten receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown. But Jones outdid himself last week on Monday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers, nearly spearheading an upset with a franchise record 259 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 17 targets. Although he “only” caught one touchdown pass, he narrowly missed a second TD on two separate occasions. Moreover, he didn’t even get to finish the game, as he left in the fourth quarter with a hip injury, casting his status for the Week 15 battle against the Pittsburgh Steelers in immediate doubt.

The Steelers secondary is in shambles, as their two starting corners ended up being two of their worst players. Neither of them will start next week, as Cortez Allen is on the injured reserve after a disappointing first season under his new contract, while Ike Taylor was finally benched after yet another horrible display in coverage. This pass defense is ripe for the picking, but Jones probably won’t be able to take advantage of them and shoot for a 300-yard day.

Jones is officially listed questionable on the Falcons injury report with his hip injury, and he wasn’t able to practice at all this week. He’s highly questionable at best, and the only thing keeping him from a more pessimistic listing might be his star status. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s D. Orlando Ledbetter, Jones would be a decoy if he’s able to play against the Steelers, and, more troubling, Ledbetter adds that Jones “can barely run”.

At this point, the Falcons elite wideout- and the current league leader in receiving yards with 1,428 on 93 catches- is a full-blown game-time decision at best. We already know that fantasy owners should think twice about inserting him into the lineup in the hopes that he can make a big impact in the fantasy playoffs, but how much will Jones help the Falcons as a team in their quest for a playoff spot if he is used as a decoy?

No. 1 wide receivers are critical to their team’s success in this league for a variety of reasons. First of all, they are excellent players who are reliable targets and can break the game open with their playmaking ability, and, secondly, they open things up for the rest of the offense by taking attention away from the No. 2 and 3 guys. If Julio Jones is unable to play, then Roddy White would become the No. 1 receiver and Harry Douglas the No. 2 guy. That looks less effective than a trio of Jones-White-Douglas, especially since Jones is capable of beating double-teams and shutdown corners on his own.

If he’s used as a decoy, then the Falcons won’t be able to reap the rewards of Jones’s actual on-field play, which includes six 100-yard performances. As I wrote earlier this week, no receiver is more important to his team’s success than Jones, and the Falcons are 4-2 when he gets over the century mark in receiving yards. That won’t be the case tomorrow against the Steelers, because he “can barely run” and isn’t nearly healthy enough to make that sort of a tangible impact. It’s much harder, however, to measure how much he helps the offense by taking away from the other guys.

Jones’s effectiveness as a decoy will depend on his ability to make the defense fear him, and that largely depends on how healthy he is. The Steelers aren’t going to take a far-less-than-100% Jones too lightly, but if Jones gets passes thrown his way and doesn’t seem able to do anything with those targets, then the Steelers could ease up on him by giving the corner covering him less safety help. If that’s the case, then there will be more pressure on the likes of White, Douglas, and Devin Hester to beat the coverage. No player would be under the microscope more than White, because he has an excellent matchup ahead of him but would almost certainly figure to face double-coverage on most of his routes.

Some will wonder if Jones should even play tomorrow, because the Week 16 and 17 games agains the rival New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers are even more important for this team. If they want to secure crucial rivalry wins over those two teams that will do more to decide their playoff fate, then they will need Julio Jones to be 100% to beat Keenan Lewis and take advantage of the Panthers secondary. The Falcons will have to decide if Jones is effective enough as a decoy to justify the risk of aggravation and the loss of an extra week to heal up before two more important games in the following weeks to close out the regular season.

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