Reggie Wayne better off in reduced role

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne has been one of the best players at the position since 2000 and will surely make the Hall of Fame, but he hasn’t been playing at a high level this season. We keep hearing about how Wayne might be injured, but the fact of the matter is that he’s having a poor year by his standards (really, by anyone’s standards). The numbers speak volumes about how uncharacteristically subpar the former No. 1 wideout has been, as he’s dropping passes, not making any plays, and probably deserves to receive less targets than Donte Moncrief and TE Dwayne Allen going forward.

Wayne has downplayed the torn triceps injury that Chuck Pagano stated his wideout is suffering from, but what really matters to the Colts at this point is his play going forward. He’s coming off of one of the worst games of his career, as he caught just one pass on eight targets against the Cleveland Browns, dropping a whopping three passes, per Pro Football Focus. We knew that Wayne wouldn’t be an explosive player in the offense, especially since he’s coming off of a torn ACL, but it’s insane how he has turned into one of the league’s most drop-prone players with eight drops on the season. Per PFF, he’s forced just one missed tackle, and Andrew Luck has had more interceptions (four) than touchdowns (two) when targeting Wayne.

It’s clear that, from a statistical perspective, Wayne isn’t getting it done out there. It’s hard to understand why he’s been targeted 103 times this season when he clearly hasn’t been efficient with his targets. Per Advanced Football Analytics, Wayne’s WPA is in the negatives and his EPA is at exactly 0, so you could even argue that he’s holding back the offense. I’m not sure that’s entirely the case, since he is at least moving the chains for the offense with the 36th-most first downs in the league (the elite T.Y. Hilton is third with 60).

His inefficiency goes beyond drops, though, as Wayne has caught just 53.4% of everything thrown him, and that is absolutely dreadful. How can a possession receiver have a catch rate that is 8.5% below the completion percentage of his quarterback? That’s an excusable catch rate for a deep threat averaging over 15 yards per reception, but Wayne is averaging a mediocre 11.7 yards per catch with just two TDs; he isn’t making plays. As evidenced by his drop rate and the interceptions thrown in his direction, he’s also been far from safe.

With just 6.2 yards per target, Wayne has been the second-least efficient receiver on the team, as he only has the albatross Hakeem Nicks to thank. Nicks has been one of the worst receivers in the NFL this season, so it’s hardly an accomplishment that Wayne has been more effective. It’s disappointing to see how little he has done with his 103 targets from Luck, because a 53.4% catch rate is almost laughable. Luck has a devilish 66.6 QB Rating when throwing it at Wayne, per PFF, and it’s yet another damning statistic that goes against Wayne.

So what should the Colts do with him? I think they should just demote him to mostly slot duties, especially if he is injured. Again, this is a 36-year-old chain-moving wideout coming off of an ACL tear and apparently dealing with a triceps injury of some significance, as well as knee and elbow injuries. Based on the slot performance numbers from PFF, Wayne has been more effective lining up inside, so I think it’s best to place him there in the hopes that he can play a little bit better for this offense.

Contrast Wayne’s inefficient play with rookie Donte Moncrief’s numbers, and you’ll see why many people are pining for the less-raw-than-expected Ole Miss product to receive more targets. He’s averaging a whopping 15.7 yards per reception, and yet he still has a 73% catch rate, which yields an incredible 11.4 yards per target. A large sample size will cause those numbers to regress to whatever the mean is, but I’m sure it’s greater than Wayne’s average. Moncrief provides much more playmaking ability in the Colts offense, and you can’t even make the argument that Wayne is the safer option at this point.Another guy who deserves more targets from Wayne’s one-fifth share (he has been targeted on 19.3% of the Colts total pass attempts this season) is Dwayne Allen, who is one of the most underrated TEs in the NFL and is averaging ten yards per target to go with his seven touchdown catches.

I hope that it isn’t old age catching up to Reggie Wayne, and I sincerely hope he is dealing with an injury and not a decline in skill. I’m leaning more towards the “injury” side of things, but that’s mostly for his sake. It’s clear that he hasn’t been playing well this season, and I think it’s best for the Colts to divert his targets to the younger guys. After dropping three passes and catching just one on eight targets last week, the Colts should probably cut down on his targets. It wasn’t just the Cleveland Browns secondary either, as he caught just three passes on nine targets against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don’t think Wayne has been completely terrible this season, but the Colts should reduce his role; maybe that will also help prolong his career.

More from NFL Spin Zone

Home/Indianapolis Colts