Jeremy Hill the tipping factor in Bengals vs. Steelers?
Both the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have locked up playoff spots, but tonight’s game will decide who wins the AFC North and who gets to play their first playoff game at home. There’s no doubt that this game could go either way, so the individual performances of key players will be instrumental in tipping the balance to either bitter rival. Although it is unlikely, the Bengals could lock up a playoff bye tonight by winning, but they would need the Denver Broncos to drop one to the lowly Oakland Raiders. Derek Carr has spearheaded upsets over the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers this season, but the Broncos defense is playing on a whole different level.
Last week, the Bengals defeated the Broncos behind an uncharacteristic four picks from Peyton Manning, but plenty of credit goes to the Bengals excellent pass defense for the result. Rookie running back Jeremy Hill has finally usurped Giovani Bernard as the team’s feature back, and he played his best game of the season against Terrance Knighton and Co., bullying the Broncos defense to the tune of 147 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. He was equally good the previous week against the rival Cleveland Browns, churning out 148 and two TDs on 25 carries.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a huge weakness this season, as this team will make it into the playoffs on the strength of an explosive offense led by Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell– three of the best players in the league at their respective positions. While the Steelers pass defense is the worst part of the unit, they also allow 4.4 yards per carry and have failed to establish themselves as a strong run defense. That said, they allowed a meager 39 rushing yards to the Chiefs last week, and they haven’t allowed 100 rushing yards in a game in their past three outings.
When the Bengals and Steelers faced off in Week 14, Hill received just eight carries, but he was extremely efficient and turned those eight attempts into 46 yards. That’s an average of 5.8 yards per carry, so he would have been more of a factor had he received more rushes. In fact, when the Bengals give Hill the ball at least 20 rushing attempts in a game, he never runs for less than 140 yards, which is simply ridiculous. With 1,024 rushing yards on just 199 carries, an average of 5.1 yards per attempt, and nine rushing touchdowns, Hill has quietly established himself as one of the game’s best feature backs as a rookie, and he’s definitely worth an honorable mention in the “Rookie of the Year” race.
Hill’s powerful rushing style can cause any defense problems, and his ability to make defenders miss is an underrated trait. He’s a smart back who is pretty explosive at the second level, and that helps him regularly average chunks of five yards. With his no-holds-bar running, Hill rumbles into the end zone with ease, and he should have around triple the carries he received back in the Bengals first meeting with the Steelers this season.
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The stakes aren’t do-or-die for either team, but there’s no doubt that a win tonight would help the victor carry some positive momentum into the postseason. I mean, it’s a rivalry game for the AFC North title on Sunday Night Football. More importantly, the winner gets to start their playoffs at home, and the stakes are higher for the Bengals due to the slim chance of earning a playoff bye.
The Steelers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards of any team this season, but they have been playing better of late. Even without Troy Polamalu last week, they were still able to suffocate the Chiefs offense. Of course, the Bengals will be a tougher challenge, especially since they figure to give their star back plenty of touches (unlike the Chiefs, who gave Jamaal Charles just nine carries). Polamalu is listed questionable, so the Steelers will hope that one of their best run defenders will be available. Having strong run defense in the secondary is important against a back like Hill, who has forced plenty of missed tackles and is, per Pro Football Focus, fourth in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt.
Hill will be one of the Bengals biggest keys to victory going forward, and he and the excellent offensive line in front of him allow this team to have an elite rushing attack. Throw in the elusive Bernard as the No. 2 guy, and you have a running game that is among the best in the NFL. Le’Veon Bell is the more talented and touted back, but Hill has more than enough production to boast in his rookie season and also has the benefit of playing behind an offensive line that features the likes of Andrew Whitworth, who was one of the biggest Pro Bowl snubs this year.
If the Steelers can keep Jeremy Hill in check, then they have a great chance at upending the Bengals and locking up a home game in the Wild Card round. If, however, Hill keeps up his torrid pace after back-to-back 140-yard games against the Browns and Broncos, then that would likely be enough for this team to finish the regular season on a winning note. By the time they take the field tonight, they’ll know if they have a shot at a playoff bye, but the chances of them being in that position are obviously extremely low.