Drew Brees perfectly fine, no knee-jerk needed
New Orleans Saints star quarterback Drew Brees was the subject of a report earlier this season stating that the team would draft a quarterback “high” in 2015 and regretted not picking one in 2014. It predictably set off plenty of buzz, hot takes, criticism, and everything in between, especially since Brees had been struggling to that point. Of course, he promptly shredded the Pittsburgh Steelers putrid secondary on that day, tossing five TDs with no picks, as the Steelers left everyone but Jimmy Graham wide open.
Statistically speaking, Brees was a disappointment in 2014, as his numbers were clearly off the pace. He threw for his least amount of touchdowns since 2010, averaged the lowest passing yards per game since 2010, and put up his lowest yards per attempt since, well, 2010. It was his worst season in years, based on the box score stats, but he still complete 69.2% of his passes (his highest since 2011), averaged a solid 7.5 yards per attempt, and put up 4,952 passing yards. Those are numbers many quarterbacks would kill for, but we’ve come to expect 5,000-40-15 (yards-TD-INT) from Brees.
Brees was tied with Andy Dalton for the third-most interceptions in the league with 17 picks, but it’s totally unfair to take those interceptions at face value for one basic reason; Brees threw the ball more than anybody else in the league. Yes, he led the league with 659 pass attempts, and if you look at INT%, which takes a look at the percentage of interceptions a quarterback threw as a proportion to his overall pass attempts, you’ll see that he was 14th in the league in INT%. That isn’t good, but it’s nothing that deserves criticism.
The Saints offense called for shorter throws than usual, as Brees averaged 10.9 yards per completion, which was the lowest of his career since 2010, but his completion percentage was also second in the NFL (Tony Romo was first). Why did the Saints want to dial up shorter passes? My theory is that it’s because Brees faced more pressure than he’s used to, as the Saints offensive line was a massive disappointment. Normally solid interior OLs Jahri Evans, Ben Grubbs, and Jonathan Goodwin did not play well this season. Evans was especially bad, as six sacks allowed, per Pro Football Focus, is a ghastly number for a guard in this league.
Interior pressure affects quarterbacks more then pressure from the outside, especially if it’s a non-mobile QB like Brees. Pressure from up the middle comes at a faster rate, and Brees, who felt the heat plenty of times in 2014, clearly did worse when under duress. That’s obviously true for most quarterbacks, but check out how bad Brees was under pressure. When given a clean pocket, he completed 74.6% of his passes and had a 112.2 QB Rating, but that fell to a 56.2% completion percentage, a 1:3 TD:INT ratio, and a ridiculously low 60.5 QB Rating.
New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) throws the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the second half at Raymond James Stadium. New Orleans Saints defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
PFF has some interesting stats that are related to pressure, and I find it interesting that despite his low QB Rating, Brees was still second in the league in accuracy percentage, which measure a QBs completion percentage on throws that weren’t dropped or thrown away. His receivers dropped 12 passes when he was under pressure, so only Blake Bortles had things worse on that front. Brees’s main issue may have been his unwillingness to take sacks, as he tied with Josh McCown for the league lead with nine interceptions when pressured.
All of these numbers make it difficult to draw a clean conclusion, but it’s clear to me that Brees faced much more pressure than he’s used to, and there’s no doubt that interior pressure is more damaging to quarterbacks. It forced him to make quicker throws, and while he was accurate on them, the mistakes he did make were huge back-breakers. Drops also hurt him last season, as only Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco lost more yards to dropped passes, so that also hurt some of his numbers.
There’s a lot of talk floating around about how Brees could be declining and how they need to think about his replacement, but all of that seems like hogwash to me. I could be wrong, but, at the very least, it seems like it’s too early to draw such a strong conclusion. This is especially since Brees was one of the NFL’s best deep passers in 2014, as, per PFF, he was “accurate” (using PFF’s accuracy percentage) on 51.6% of his throws that traveled beyond 20 yards, and only Ryan topped him there.
With a QB Rating of 134.9 on throws to his deep left, I don’t think Brees had any issues getting the ball to playmakers like Kenny Stills. He’s never been known for his arm strength, but it’s a stretch to say, “HAHA, he can’t throw the deep ball anymore!”
Since he averaged 10.9 yards per completion this season, the only difference is that he threw the deep ball less, and that has to do with the increased amount of pressure he faced this season. Among 25 qualifying quarterbacks, only Ryan Tannehill threw the deep ball less than Brees, so the Saints offense traded big plays for efficiency. Per Advanced Football Analytics, Brees had the second-highest success rate%, which measures the percentage of successful plays a player had, based on down and distance factors. First and third? Aaron Rodgers and Tony Romo, respectively. His SR% and lack of deep targets shows that the Saints offense wanted him to focus on consistency instead of splash plays.
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Brees was second in the league in completion percentage, tied for the league lead in passing yards, tied for tenth in yards per attempt, sixth in QB Rating, tenth in WPA, and fourth in EPA. At worst, he was one of the top ten quarterbacks in the league, and, at best, he was still one of the top five quarterbacks in the league. We saw people jumping to conclusions when Tom Brady‘s numbers weren’t quite right last season, and while those were even tougher circumstances, Brady’s own numbers were also worse than Brees’s this year, as Brees’s numbers were still great.
Something that doesn’t get enough play is the change in Brees’s supporting cast, because his line had a down year in the pass blocking department, particularly Evans and Goodwin. He also had to work with new receivers, as he had Brandin Cooks in the fold and later lost the rookie to an injury, and star TE Graham was also banged up for a good part of the season. He still had plenty of weapons around him, but the main change is the fact that he was asked to do things differently.
Drew Brees isn’t declining, but we’ll know more about where he stands among the top QBs in the NFL next season. But to say he struggled last season is erroneous, as he was only disappointing in comparison to the locked-in-top-four expectations we have of him each season. Based on his accuracy on deep passes and on most throws, a bounce-back from his line will safely get him back to that point in 2014.
At 35, some decline from Brees is likely, but even if he “only” plays at the level he did in 2014, the Saints are still in good hands. With the issues they had on defense, he’s clearly the last thing they need to worry about in the short-term. Grooming a long-term replacement is a different story, but some of the takes on Brees are unfair and don’t take into account analytics that show a passer who is still highly effective. To those who pointed the finger at him for the Saints struggles this season, you’re looking at the wrong side of the ball.