Tennessee Titans Justin Hunter has hope despite putrid 2014
The Tennessee Volunteers produced two of the top wide receiver prospects in the 2013 NFL Draft, and both Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson were viewed as first-round caliber prospects with plenty of bust potential due to their rawness. While Patterson was taken in the first round after the Minnesota Vikings traded with the New England Patriots, Hunter was selected very early in the second round, as the Tennessee Titans plucked the 6’4″ wideout off the board with the 34th overall pick in the draft.
Hunter caught just 18 passes for 354 yards as a rookie, but he flashed the kind of playmaking ability and potential that had scouts intrigued with him during the pre-draft process. With an average of 19.7 yards per reception to go with four touchdowns, Hunter showed that his explosiveness and red zone ability weren’t sapped out by injury, and he averaged 8.4 yards per target in a promising season as a deep threat. He showed off expected inconsistency in his first season, as he caught just 42.9% of the passes thrown at him and dropped five passes.
In his second season, Hunter’s rate stats were actually worse despite the uptick in overall production, as the 28 receptions for 498 yards and three touchdowns weren’t enough to make up for some more issues. He caught just 41.8% of everything thrown at him, per Advanced Football Analytics, and Pro Football Focus had the young wideout charged with seven drops. Although he showed off plenty of playmaking ability again by averaging over 17 yards per reception and forcing seven missed tackles, his inability to move the chains hurt his team.
We knew Hunter would struggle with drops in the NFL, but it just doesn’t feel like he’s making enough plays to make up for it. PFF keeps track of a stat called WR Rating, which gives the QB Rating quarterbacks had when throwing it to that receiver. Among 90 qualifiers, Hunter was 87th, and his former teammate Patterson was the lowest in the NFL. Deep threats will always have higher yards per target averages and lower WR Ratings, but a 58.8 mark is just completely unacceptable and speaks volumes about his inconsistency.
PFF’s yards per route run helps minimize the boosts deep threats have, because it takes efficiency as yards per route run instead of simply yards per target (deep threats are generally targeted less and benefit most from busted coverages). Hunter, who had the second-worst drop rate in the NFL last season, had one of the lower yards per route run marks in the league at 1.32. And with a catch rate just over 20% on deep throws (only six qualifiers had a lower catch rate on passes thrown at least 20 yards), Hunter didn’t even make the most of his big-play opportunities.
By every single statistical measure, Justin Hunter had a terrible year for the Titans, and it was especially disappointing given that he received massive training camp hype. Even the most even-keeled of beat writers became believers in Hunter, because he played that well in practices.
More from NFL Spin Zone
- Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
- Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
- Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
- Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
- Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens
It’s a harsh reminder that training camp performances mean little, but it’s also a reminder that Hunter has some of the most ridiculous tools at the position, especially when you look at his size-speed combo. Hunter has been set deep often during his career, he’s made “wow” plays, and he’s shown that he can make guys miss after the catch. The problem is that he’s inefficient, drop-prone, and doesn’t seem to understand the nuances of the position.
Hunter could easily become a huge second-round bust for the Tennessee Titans, but there’s still more than enough hope that he can fulfill his potential. He remains one of the most high-upside wide receivers in the league, mainly because there are so few receivers with his raw ability. Hunter did flash that ability last season, and his yards per reception averages can’t be ignored. The dream pick for the Titans is a top QB in this year’s draft class, but Marcus Mariota might not be within reach.
The Titans seem content with starting Zach Mettenberger next season, though I think it’s better to make him part of the competition. Mettenberge showed plenty of aggressiveness as a rookie and did what he could to drive the ball downfield, so growth from Mettenberger bodes well for Hunter, who would be targeted on plenty of those deep passes. The problem is that Hunter will have to make massive strides of his own this offseason, and it’s telling that he didn’t have a single game with at least five receptions in 2014, underscoring his utter lack of reliability as a receiver.
So why does Hunter still deserve some hype? Well, he was never expected to make a big impact in his first two seasons, as he was always a project coming out of Tennessee. Sadly, he’s been more raw than we expected, but he hasn’t been in an ideal situation either. The Titans have two solid possession guys around him in Kendall Wright and TE Delanie Walker, but the quarterback situation hasn’t exactly been ideal, even if Mettenberger’s arm plays into Hunter’s strengths as a deep threat.
Hunter was- and there’s no way to put this kindly- alarmingly poor in his second season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he receives some more breakout hype. Until his rookie contract runs out, Hunter’s potential will continue to intrigue, and it’s important to be patient and develop players like him.
Chances are that he never develops into a true star, but if he puts it together, he could be a big-time weapon on an offense that hasn’t had a true big-time playmaker at WR in some time.It’s hard to believe in someone after they posted one of the league’s worst drop rates, catch rates, and WR Ratings, but Hunter could absolutely bully DBs if he can develop some consistency. If he doesn’t, then he’ll go the Stephen Hill route. Despite the immediate success of wide receivers in this year’s legendary class, this is one of the toughest positions to transition to, especially for someone as raw as Hunter.