Brandon LaFell Super Bowl 2015 Projection

New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell was one of the breakout stars of the 2014 NFL season, as he first burst onto the stage by being the lone bright spot in the team’s panic-inducing blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. It was the first of just two 100-yard receiving days on the season for LaFell, who also came close twice. Although it’s hard to even see him coming close in Super Bowl 2015 against the elite Seattle Seahawks defense, every single pass-catcher has to play a key role against a secondary that is as deep, talented, physical, fast, and instinctive as Seattle’s.

LaFell’s calling card with the Patriots has been his week-to-week consistency, because he’s been held under three receptions just once since Week 3. He has put together 11 games with at least 50 receiving yards, and that’s pretty darn good for someone who is the No. 3 option in the passing attack. I wish he managed to go over 1,000 receiving yards to add to his 74 receptions in his career year, and he may have gotten it if not for the goose eggs in the first two weeks of the regular season.

The prevailing belief is that the Patriots will sacrifice LaFell to Richard Sherman, who has been playing his usual lights-out football. Significant injury or not, Sherman will be a huge test for a receiver who never caught 50 passes in a season until 2014, especially since Sherman largely took Jordy Nelson out of the game whenever on him; Aaron Rodgers decided to pick on him just twice, possibly because the first of those targets was a pick.

I wonder how often Bill Belichick will tell his receivers to test Sherman’s arm, because LaFell would be the perfect receiver to do this with. At 6’3″, 210 pounds, Dwayne Bowe’s former teammate at LSU is one of the most physical wide receivers in the game, and that’s evident in his seven touchdown receptions and always-touted blocking. If anyone can exploit a cornerback’s arm injury or beat a strong, well-placed jam, then it’s LaFell.

Teams don’t always put the same receiver on the same side of the field on every play, and that sort of choice of alignment is basically non-existent. We should see LaFell face Byron Maxwell at times, but it seems like he’ll primarily duel against Sherman. Tom Brady doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who will shy away from a shutdown corner, but he’s definitely going to be smart about his targets; LaFell will get phased out of the game if he can’t get open.

The problem for LaFell is that he’s coming off a very poor showing against the Indianapolis Colts, as he failed to do anything with his six targets, hauling in four passes for a meager 28 yards. Colts cornerback Greg Toler struggled all season long, but LaFell couldn’t generate sufficient separation against the former Arizona Cardinals CB. Meanwhile, Julian Edelman had no issues tearing apart Toler’s coverage, so that’s worth noting. However, LaFell did get three receptions for 62 yards when the Patriots played the Colts in the regular season, and he had no issues getting some big plays against Vontae Davis.

Widely seen by many as a potential Super Bowl X-Factor, LaFell’s play next week is likely contingent on the matchups he faces. Theoretically, it should be easier for a shifty, slot receiver like Edelman to find holes in the Seahawks zones and beat Jeremy Lane in man coverage than it is to beat Sherman or Maxwell while simultaneously worrying about excellent safety help. For LaFell, it’s all about seeing if he can get any bonus plays against Sherman and make the defense worry about him.

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During the regular season, LaFell benefited from the attention players like Rob Gronkowski and Edelman received over the middle of the field, but he also helped ease pressure off of those guys with his 70-catch work on the outside. Against the Seahawks secondary, it will have to be a team effort for Patriots receivers, since every pass-catcher needs to get open, put stress on the defense, and work to free up others; there’s no room for someone to be a non-factor.

Sadly for the Pats, Edelman was the only real factor in the passing game last week, and that isn’t going to work against Seattle, since Brady can’t overcome a lack of pass-catching help against a secondary that Aaron Rodgers and his receivers couldn’t even beat.

Brady is probably the best quarterback in history at playing well while his pass-catchers are struggling, but nobody can accomplish that feat against the Legion of Boom.

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Brandon LaFell (19) celebrates with tight end Tim Wright (81) after catching a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

It’s great to see that Brandon LaFell’s consistent, solid play in the regular season hasn’t gone unnoticed, but he’ll have to step his game up next week. If the Patriots fall behind, then they will need him to show some wheels and toughness on the outside to make big plays. Gronk led the team with over 13 yards per reception, but LaFell was the only other player with over 12.

This Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl has the makings of a tough, defensive battle between two smart teams, and that suits both team’s offenses better, especially considering the secondaries both teams will field.

But big games are based on swing plays- as the Patriots know from experience- and LaFell is one of the player who is capable of making those plays, such as that game-winning TD against the Baltimore Ravens. To be fair, that was mostly Brady’s brilliance by perfectly placing the ball in tight coverage, but LaFell deserves credit for making that play.

He’s their second-best wide receiver, their best deep threat, and a guy with sure hands; he’ll have to show off some serious route-running chops in this one in order to make a big impact.

I think we’ll see four receptions for 40 yards and a touchdown from LaFell, as he’ll have room in the end zone with the defense focusing on Gronk. The weird thing is that a well-designed slot route is the best weapon against the Seahawks in the end zone, but LaFell is a prime red zone target.

The four receptions for 40 yards is actually optimistic, since his season average against all defenses is 4.6 receptions for about 60 yards. Of course, the numbers won’t tell the whole story about LaFell’s impact, because there’s so much more that goes into having a good game against the ‘Hawks than just the stats a receiver produces on their own.

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