Nick Foles only makes sense for St. Louis Rams at low price
The St. Louis Rams have stood by Sam Bradford as a viable starting quarterback, and he’d probably be regarded as a decent starter if he didn’t suffer severe injuries in back-to-back seasons. That said, the Rams can’t afford to head into another season without sufficient competition at the position, so it makes sense for them to trade for a young quarterback that has some upside and past production; Les Snead and Jeff Fisher simply don’t have enough time on their hands to go through the lumps of developing a new QB or taking a top prospect in the first round.
Earlier today, NJ.com’s Eliot-Shorr Parks reported that the Rams are interested in Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, who could be on the trading block this offseason. There are rumblings that the Eagles are indeed interested in packaging several to picks to move up for Marcus Mariota, and Chip Kelly will hope that schematic concerns drop Mariota further down to decrease his price from the expected king’s ransom.
If Kelly doesn’t plan on keeping Foles around after his regression in 2014 and his overall lack of mobility, then some team stands to gain. Foles isn’t exactly a top-class quarterback, but he was remarkably efficient in his apparent breakout season in 2013. Despite his clearly below-average 2014 season, there are people around the league who gave Parks some positive reviews of the quarterback, and Foles is a young option at 26.
Rams veteran backup Shaun Hill will hit the free agent market, leaving them with Bradford and Austin Davis as the two QBs on their roster. Davis did some nice things last season before regressing to the mean, and he isn’t consistent enough to be franchise material, though he does look like a useful backup. Meanwhile, Bradford can be a quality starter in this league, but it’s too hard for the Rams to depend on him.
Basically, the Rams are in a tough position at quarterback. Despite Bradford’s high price tag, they aren’t in a situation where they can cut ties with him, because they don’t have any other legitimate options…yet. Davis has some ability, but he showed that he’s more of a “nice backup” than a “nice starter”, and the latter is clearly what the Rams are going for.
In comparison to Bradford and Davis, Foles has had more success in the NFL, but it’s hard to call his play consistent. He was mediocre at best near the end of the 2012 season and clearly didn’t play well last season, so his trade value stems from his age, relatively solid arm talent, ability to make quick decisions, and his incredible 2013 season. Foles has the ability to move an offense efficiently, but it’s clear that he needs plenty of weapons around him.
Thankfully for the Rams, they have volume on offense, in that they have a host of pass-catchers and backs who can be seen as above-average. Benny Cunningham and Zac Stacy have done some nice things in the backfield, Tre Mason has plenty of talent, Brian Quick and Kenny Britt played well at WR last year, Stedman Bailey is solid, Tavon Austin can make big plays after the catch, and Jared Cook has plenty of raw talent and athletic ability at the tight end position.
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Not including the running backs, the St. Louis Rams- assuming they re-sign Britt, which would make plenty of sense for both parties- have five legitimate pass-catchers on their hands, and that’s exactly the kind of set-up that suits someone like Foles, who would also stand to benefit from the running back committee.
Aug 23, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (8) warms up before the game against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
The key for the Rams is getting much better play from their offensive line, and hopefully not playing Scott Wells or Davin Joseph, who is an impending free agent anyway, will help in that regard. Going into the 2014 season, it looked like the Rams would have one of the league’s strongest lines after keeping Rodger Saffold and adding Greg Robinson, but it wasn’t to be.
Trading for Nick Foles sounds like a nice idea on paper, but the Rams have to be extremely careful here. What they’re looking for is somebody who can provide Bradford will legitimate competition and be a capable starter if anything happens to Bradford for a third year running.
What the Rams can’t do is burn a first-round pick on a QB, and chances are that they won’t have a good enough option available to make it worth selecting a first-round QB. They also aren’t in a position to take someone after the first round and feel comfortable with them competing immediately, since this class is too raw. Snead and Fisher are a quality GM-HC combo in my eyes, but the NFL stands for “Not For Long”, meaning that these two don’t have the luxury to develop their own guy.
When you trade a quarterback, you have to think, “Is the guy I’m getting more valuable than someone I would take with Pick X?” The Rams have to make sure that the pick they give to the Eagles is one that would not have a better-valued QB, though, again, the Rams aren’t in a position to draft/groom a signal-caller.
If the Eagles put Foles on the trading block, then it’s implied that they want Mariota, which means that a deal involving Foles might involve a first-round swap with an additional pick being sent by the team interesting in acquiring Foles. The free agent market will be filled with a host of underwhelming veterans, so Foles is one of the best options available.
He isn’t a bad QB, but the Rams have to be careful not to overpay him, since he played poorly last year and isn’t a top-flight option. Any team acquiring him, such as the Rams, is simply hoping that he will be solid, and a team like the Tennessee Titans would be in a better position to pay more to trade for him. If the Rams can get him for a third-round pick or less, then it makes sense to pull the trigger; anything more- and even a third is pushing it- would be far too steep. In a swap of firsts, only a fifth or a conditional 2016 pick makes sense.