New York Jets: Expectations for Jace Amaro

Coming into the 2014 season, not much was expected out of New York Jets rookie tight end Jace Amaro, who was coming out of a Texas Tech offense that was the antithesis of a pro-style unit. 38 receptions for 345 yards isn’t a bad haul for a rookie tight end, especially since it’s easily one of the most difficult positions to translate to. The Jets invested a second-round pick in Amaro, so they are expecting big things at some point the near future, and there’s a good chance Chan Gailey can give him a significant boost by taking advantage of his size and athletic ability as a hybrid tight end.

Amaro clearly isn’t an in-line tight end and fits the “move” profile, though he does have the size, toughness, and upside to become a quality in-line blocker if asked. That said, the Jets took him high for his pass-catching potential, and all eyes will be on him in 2015 to see if he can make strides in that department. Due to the Jets issues at quarterback and his own issues with transitioning to the NFL, Amaro was something of a glorified safety valve with just 9.1 yards per reception.

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Of course, Amaro wasn’t exactly “safe” either, as he dropped, per Pro Football Focus, six passes in his first season for a catch rate that bettered just six other tight ends. One of those TEs was fellow rookie Eric Ebron, whom the Detroit Lions believe will make a big second-year leap.

Amaro excelled when lining up in the slot, because he did a great job of moving the chains despite his six drops on just 53 targets. He caught an excellent 71.1% of everything thrown at him, though he put up just 6.5 yards per target because of his low amount of yards per reception. Per PFF, Amaro had the tenth-best catch rate among all tight ends when lined up in the slot, so that’s something for Gailey and the Jets to look forward to in 2015, whether it’s Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, or even somebody else starting at quarterback.

The Jets upcoming spread offense should have concepts that Amaro will be much more familiar with, as he was dominant in the Red Raiders spread attack. In all fairness to the previous coaching staff, the Jets did a great job of limiting Amaro to his strengths as a rookie, as he barely spent any time blocking. According to PFF, Amaro ran 244 routes but stayed in as a blocker just 126 times in the passing and running game.

Moreover, 59.4% of Amaro’s routes last season came when he was lined up in the slot, so we’ll see if that’s a number that increases in his second season. While Amaro has become more comfortable with playing the position in the NFL, his versatile skill-set and greater comfort when aligned in the slot will be more valuable in the New York Jets new offense. And if the Jets do bring in Mariota, then that could be a nice boost for him down-the-road, as Mariota excels at making the quick reads necessary in a spread attack.

While Amaro’s numbers as a rookie were mediocre on the surface, he did outproduce both Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The caveat here is that I didn’t have him ranked above either of those two TE as a draft prospect, and, more importantly, he received more targets than those guys. Neither of those notes matter much, though, because Amaro was supposed to be even more raw than Ebron as a rookie. Instead, he out-produced those two tight ends, which means that he’s further along than initially expected.

It’s hard to predict how a new offense will look, and that becomes just about impossible if we don’t know who the quarterback will be yet. That said, Jace Amaro is in a favorable position with Gailey at the helm and both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker forming an excellent partnership on the outside. Amaro will have to compete with Jeremy Kerley for reps over the middle of the field, but I don’t expect that to be a big issue.

He’s currently locked in as “the guy” at tight end and could be third on the totem pole in targets, as he was third on the Jets in targets last season behind Decker and Kerley. I could see he and Kerley flipping spots behind the established duo of Marshall and Decker, and, if that’s the case, we could see Amaro flirt with 70 targets (Kerley had 75 last season).

A lot depends on how often the Jets pass the ball, but Amaro should see an increase in targets and yards per reception.The increase in YPR will lead to a decrease in catch rate, but he should have more yards per target and better numbers as a whole, though, again, that also assumes the Jets QB play will be better.

Sep 28, 2014; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets tight end Jace Amaro (88) carries the ball against the Detroit Lions at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports

I like what I saw from Amaro as a rookie as compared to what I expected from him, but he still has plenty of work to do in the hands and learning department.

He’s on the right track, and I think we could see a 50-catch sophomore season, though his red zone role will depend on how often the Jets starting QB chucks it in Marshall’s general direction inside the 20 (in most cases, that’s a fine strategy).

It’s hard to buy into Amaro fully as a future breakout candidate after he had a drop rate over 13% and a yards per reception average under ten, but it’s important to keep expectations for a rookie TE without any pro-style experience in perspective.

Gailey seems like the perfect OC to take advantage of Amaro’s mis-match making potential in the slot, and it will be exciting to see how he develops in 2015 after flashing enough ability in his first year.

Ultimately, I’m not expecting anything big from Amaro next season, but I would be disappointed if he can’t come close to 50 catches and five TDs with over seven yards per target and a drop rate under 10%. Of course, he has the upside for more than that, but I think it would be unwise to expect more than that.

Next: Expectations for Stevan Ridley

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