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San Francisco 49ers: Expectations for Carlos Hyde

By Kevin Parvizi

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Cincinnati Bengals rising star Jeremy Hill was undoubtedly the best rookie back last season, but San Francisco 49ers back Carlos Hyde could have given Hill a run for his money had he received more than just 83 carries. Hyde was viewed as the top running back prospect in the class, only to see Bishop Sankey quizzically get his name called first. Stuck behind Frank Gore, whom he was compared to in the pre-draft process, Hyde didn’t get to make much of an impact on the 49ers lousy offense last season, but that should completely change in 2015.

The Hyde hype train seems to be starting up, as the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows passed along yesterday that 49ers GM Trent Baalke stated that the former Ohio State star has dropped weight to the mid-220s after weighing in the mid-230s last season. That extra drop in weight will make him even more explosive and agile, and Baalke obviously notes that his likely feature back looks “extremely good”. I mean, did we expect him to say anything else?

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But we have every reason to believe that Hyde is a fully legit feature back, and it goes beyond the fact that he was a touted prospect coming out of college, seen as a consistent, well-rounded rusher with a true foundation back skill-set. Even in his limited carries last season, we were able to see that Hyde does indeed have promise.

First of all, it’s important to note that he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry, and even though that doesn’t tell us as much as his other stats might, it shows that he didn’t set the world on fire in those carries. The 49ers are bringing in other backs for workouts, such as touted Boise State product Jay Ajayi, so they aren’t completely sold on Hyde.

That said, the fact that the 49ers didn’t re-sign Gore and drafted a player who was compared to Gore right before their veteran feature back’s contract year tells us that this team was clearly high on Hyde as a prospect. Otherwise, why else would they draft an heir-apparent at the position as opposed to shoring up a need elsewhere on the roster? The 49ers are also known for their willingness to go “best available”, and that’s yet another positive point for Hyde.

What’s more positive, though, is the fact that he was a missed tackles-forced machine as a rookie, and that might be much more indicative of his rushing ability than his 4.0 yards per carry. According to Pro Football Focus, Hyde forced a whopping 25 missed tackles on just 83 carries, which means that he had the most missed tackles forced of any back with under 150 carries. And he only had 83. In fact, his 25 missed tackles forced were tied with Cleveland Browns rookie Terrance West, who needed 171 rushes to hit that mark.

It’s hard to read into small sample sizes, but it’s still very encouraging to see that he had a ratio of .301 missed tackles forced per carry (for reference, Marshawn Lynch, who had a league-leading 88 missed tackles forced on the ground, had a .314 clip). His 2.73 yards after contact per carry dwarfed Gore’s 2.29 mark, so that’s yet another stat to keep in mind.

But while Carlos Hyde did a great job of getting more than what was in front of him, he, per PFF, had just three runs that went for at least 15 yards. His meager 12 receptions for 68 yards highlight the fact that he isn’t someone who can make much of an impact in the passing game, so he’s not a playmaking back by any stretch.

Of course, that’s why the 49ers have Kendall Hunter, whom they are also talking up, and veteran offseason signing Reggie Bush, who is still very elusive and one of the best pass-catching backs in the business. That will go a long way in helping Hyde focus on rushing, which he was quietly good at despite his limited carries and mediocre YPC. His four rushing touchdowns hint at an ability to find the end zone, which is a valuable trait for any team but is especially valuable for a smash-mouth 49ers offense.

I would actually be surprised if the 49ers don’t draft a running back, because they are looking into options at the position in order to hedge their bets. In fact, I think the 49ers will go back to an offense that is clearly more run-heavy, allowing Colin Kaepernick to work the read-option and find new weapon Torrey Smith on deep passes that are set up by the rushing attack.

Oct 19, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) before the game against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports

What’s unclear is how high the San Francisco 49ers will take a back, and I would be equally surprised if they decide to go for a top option like Ajayi.

In my opinion, it’s more likely for the Niners to scoop up a sleeper option like Jeremy Langford, but they will, at an absolute minimum, snag a priority UDFA.

I think Hyde should be in line for around 200 carries, but it all depends on how the 49ers attack the position in the draft, because their interest in prospects at the position makes things a bit confusing.

That said, I think they will give Hyde every chance to seize the feature back gig, and, if that happens, he should clear the 1,000 yard mark and could flirt with double-digit touchdowns.

The weird thing is that I’m not even sure the weight loss was necessary given how many missed tackles he forced last year, but he should be equipped to handle punishment inside the tackles and can easily do some damage around the edge. He didn’t get many explosive plays of at least 15 yards last season, but that could change following his drop in weight.

Again, it’s hard to read too much into small sample sizes, but Hyde did show plenty of promise as a rookie and was rated highly as a draft prospect for a reason.

Next: What is the 49ers best option in the first?

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