Philadelphia Eagles: Early expectations for Nelson Agholor

Coming into the draft, the focus was on the Philadelphia Eagles making a move up to the second overall pick in order to draft Marcus Mariota, but when the Tennessee Titans rejected their lucrative offers, the focus turned to the likes of Byron Jones and Nelson Agholor as immediate upgrades at positions of need. Wide receiver was the more pressing need for the Eagles, as they signed marquee free agent Byron Maxwell while also losing No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin, who was easily the team’s best player on offense last season.

The Eagles decision to draft Agholor with the 20th overall pick was immediately praised, as the USC Trojans product can immediately step into Maclin’s old role. He possesses good speed (a forty time in the low 4.40s) and is one of the most agile players in the class. Agholor can operate in tight areas due to his quickness, but he can also be dangerous in space, as we’ve seen on his many impressive returns during his college career.

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I’m not sure if Agholor’s playing style perfectly matches Maclin’s, since I think Maclin is a bit better at the catch point and downfield. But Agholor has an even higher ceiling, because he’s just so darn good in the slot and on the outside. We’ve seen him compared to several receivers by NFL scouts, and I think Agholor is something of a cross between Randall Cobb and Maclin at his best, and that’s great company.

Since the Eagles figure to be a running team with Sam Bradford a question mark (but one with tangible upside) at quarterback, a strong offensive line, and the running back duo of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, it’s hard to project how many targets their pass-catchers will see. This is especially true for Agholor, who could be as high as the team’s top target or as low as the team’s third option (behind Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews, and I wouldn’t even count out second-year Oregon product Josh Huff completely).

Obviously, it’s never easy to prognosticate a rookie’s role, but the Eagles took Agholor at No. 20 for a reason. Some might say Breshad Perriman is the better prospect due to his sheer upside and ridiculous tools, but Agholor was easily the best fit at the position for the Eagles. He’s also a much more refined player who greatly improved his hands last season, and his inside-outside versatility could be a huge key for the Eagles offense. Matthews can also line up across the formation, but Agholor is a significantly cleaner route runner.

Last season, Maclin led the team with 144 targets, so there’s quite a bit of production to be made up. Matthews was thrown at 103 times last season and benefited greatly from his chemistry with Mark Sanchez near the end of the season, and while he looks set for more targets, the fact that he had 103 targets as one of the starting options for the Eagles confirms that they will be more than willing to send the ball in Agholor’s direction.

Ertz surely deserves more than 88 targets after putting up some strong numbers, and he could be one of the best tight ends in the NFL next season if he’s given more chances to sign. What will also cut into Agholor’s targets is the volume of rushing attempts, since those will most likely go up with that aforementioned two-headed duo having replaced LeSean McCoy.

But Agholor could siphon some targets away from Riley Cooper, who doesn’t deserve 94 targets, though his opportunities could get directed to Huff, who looks poised to be the No. 3 WR behind Agholor and Matthews.

Again, it’s difficult to accurately picture the Philadelphia Eagles pass-catching hierarchy (as you can tell from the paragraphs above), but it’s clear that Agholor fits in somewhere. I think 100+ targets is a more than reasonable projection for him, and the explosive nature of the Eagles offense could allow him to put up 800 receiving yards. Look, Matthews had 103 targets as a rookie, so the opportunity is there for Agholor, who, in my opinion, is an even better receiver, especially since his work ethic and understanding of advanced route concepts are top-notch.

Oct 25, 2014; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Nelson Agholor (15) lines up for a play during the second half against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Utah won 24-21. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

The common thread with the selections of Matthews and Agholor is that the are productive receivers from big conferences who can play inside or outside, are smart, possess good work ethic, have more than just one dimension to their games, are tough, and can understand an advanced route tree.

On the surface, Nelson Agholor seems to trump Matthews in most of these categories, because he has better tools, burst, and runs sharper routes.

I will be disappointed if Agholor doesn’t produce over 800 receiving yards as a rookie, because he has a legit shot at 1,000. That’s not something we should expect out of a rookie receiver, no matter how much last year’s crop spoiled us.

That said, only Amari Cooper is definitely more polished among WRs in this year’s class, and Agholor is more than dynamic enough to make plays downfield or make things happen with the ball in his hands after the catch. He was the perfect fit as Maclin’s replacement, and he’s also a hard worker to boot.

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