Oakland Raiders: Projecting Amari Cooper’s Rookie Numbers

After drafting Amari Cooper 4th overall in this year’s NFL Draft, the Oakland Raiders obviously expect a lot of production from him, and would be fairly disappointed if he was not an every play starter from game 1. Cooper is no stranger to pressure; playing in the SEC in college while at Alabama these days means your every move will be scrutinized and debated over. Some college analysts would call the SEC as close to playing in the NFL as you can get in terms of talent level at every position and toughness.

Cooper not only played every game in that environment, he thrived in it, which projects well for his professional career. Let’s take a best guess estimate at just how well he will project statistics-wise in his rookie year for Oakland.

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It is hard to look at a players stats in college and correlate that directly to the pros, as different schemes and different teammates can obviously drastically alter production. Even taking Cooper’s three year college career as an example demonstrates that. Cooper’s Junior year under Lane Kiffin at Alabama was 180 degrees different from Cooper’s sophomore year while under the scheme of then OC Doug Nussmeier.

The pass was emphasized a lot more under Kiffin, and was a big reason why Cooper’s numbers went from 45 catches for 736 yards and 4 TD’s in 2013 to an astronomical 124 catches for 1727 yards and 16 TD’s, per sports-reference.com. Now, under head coach Jack Del Rio and offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, the scheme will be different again.

The good news for Raider fans and Cooper is that a look at Musgrave’s history shows he is highly adaptable depending on the players he has to work with. While in Philly last year as the QB coach for Chip Kelly, Musgrave helped run an extremely powerful passing attack, ranking 6th overall in total passing per ESPN.com stats. The other great news is that Musgrave is a quarterback guru of sorts, having worked with Matt Ryan during his early years and helping Mark Sanchez step in last season for the Eagles and play fairly well.

On top of all that, he has shown a great ability to be an effective run play caller. When he was the OC in Minnesota from 2011 to 2013, he presided over an offensive group that led the league in rushing, highlighted by Adrian Peterson’s monster 2012 campaign. During that season Peterson came within a few yards of breaking the single season rushing record with 2,097; what this means is that Musgrave can succeed in both facets of offense and will play to his group’s strengths.

Musgrave has coached before with Del Rio and knows his style and tendencies. He has already said in interviews with the media, via raiders.com, that he will tailor the offense to suit his players, and will bring a lot of what worked in Philly to Oakland:

“The last 12 months have been terrific for me to see the system here in Philadelphia – be a part of it, be a contributor. We’re going to do quite a bit if it fits what the players can do there in Oakland. We’re looking forward to getting out on the field in the spring and really finding out where their strengths lie. We talked about tailoring our system to fit them, but I’ve got a hunch that a lot of the things we did here in Philadelphia will match up real nice and be effective.”

All of this news bodes well for Cooper, who along with second year quarterback Derek Carr will try to get the ball into space and use Cooper’s speed and size to the team’s advantage. That of course means that they need to be able to run the ball effectively as well, as defenses will probably be looking at Cooper early as a deep threat to score anytime he is on the field.

Considering the schedule, the team’s other weapons, the coaching staff and the fact that Cooper will most likely have a rookie learning curve initially, I project the following for Cooper in 2015:

67 receptions for 855 yards and 7 TD’s.

As long as Cooper can stay healthy, and the Raiders can keep Carr’s Jersey fairly clean, there is no reason these numbers can’t become a reality. And if everything comes together just right, Cooper’s season could be similar to Odell Beckham Jr.’s from 2014, both in statistics and in recognition. One thing is for certain: 2015 holds more promise for Raider fans when it comes to the offensive side of the ball than in any year since their last Super Bowl run.

Next: Raiders Offensive Line Isn't The Issue

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