Indianapolis Colts: Realistic expecations for a playoff run

By Brian Spaen | Jun 1, 2015

A number of the AFC’s best teams are going to have tough starts when the 2015 season begins. It ended ugly for the Indianapolis Colts getting blown off the field by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Can the Colts get back to that level, and more importantly, finally break into the Super Bowl in the post-Peyton Manning era?

The Patriots have been dealing with offseason drama ever since “Deflategate.” Punishments have been handed down and Tom Brady could be facing a four-game suspension to open the season. If the suspension holds, Brady would return in Week 6 at Indianapolis, ironically. While Brady is still allowed to tune up in preseason action, he’ll likely have some struggles that can be found on opening weekend.

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That could benefit the Colts. Before that game, Indianapolis will be facing the Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans. All of those teams went a combined 27-53 in 2014, with the Jets, Jaguars, and Titans all winning four games or less.

The schedule continues to benefit them. After the Patriots, they’ll play all four NFC South teams in the next five games. Remember, the “winner” of that division had a losing record heading into the playoffs last year. The one game between the four will be a home date against the Denver Broncos before a bye week.

While fans will mark their calendar for the big matchup in Week 9, this won’t be the same Broncos we’ve gotten used to. Matt Verderame of FanSided believes the team will regress with an older Manning under center and the coaching change from John Fox to Gary Kubiak.

"Most Broncos fans are thrilled for the change, but it remains an odd decision. Kubiak’s offense requires a mobile quarterback, something Manning will never be associated with. All of the misdirection and bootlegs Kubiak loves to utilize will be muted with Manning at the controls."

If the Colts can benefit from a weaker Patriots and Broncos team, the schedule sets up well for them to win a lot of games and achieve a high seed in the playoffs. Expectations shouldn’t be lower than getting a one or a two seed and getting the valuable first weekend off.

Getting a great seed is only half the battle. There’s the question of if Andrew Luck can be the guy to lead them to the next level. Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report warns that despite a good first three seasons, the stats and highlights don’t tell the whole story. For example, his performance against those Patriots in the AFC title game.

"Watching him against the Patriots in the playoffs, you could see that he can get frustrated when he doesn’t have options—and that can lead to a slow start. He missed on some opportunities in that game, and unlike in the divisional round versus the Broncos, when T.Y. Hilton absolutely owned Aqib Talib at the top of his routes, the Patriots played a more lockdown, physical style against the Colts’ offensive weapons."

Despite the criticism, Bowen believes that Luck is ready to take the next step and become an elite NFL quarterback. What’s going to boost Luck is the upgraded parts around him. A lot of the offensive show has been him.

The running game receives the biggest upgrade with Andre Johnson and Frank Gore, two reliable backs that should be able to establish a consistent ground attack. Drafting Phillip Dorsett adds speed to the wide receiver position to compliment Hilton. There’s potential for them to be an offensive juggernaut.

Probably the biggest concern will be the improvement of the Colts defense up front. They ranked 11th in defense overall last season and was mostly anchored by the secondary, but they struggled in pass rush and stopping the run (18th overall). They have to stay healthy and produce more efficiently — defensive end Kendall Langford is more comfortable in Indianapolis’ defensive scheme despite low numbers and defensive tackle Art Jones missed roughly half the season.

Indianapolis will be a great team in 2015. With the New England and Denver facing adversity and a big coaching change, respectively, the Colts couldn’t ask to be in a better position to break into the Super Bowl. That’s where the expectations should be set at.

Next: Indianapolis Colts: Expectations for Henry Anderson

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