Green Bay Packers: How good will Davante Adams be in 2015?

Last season, Green Bay Packers rookie wide receiver Davante Adams looked as solid as advertised in his first season out of Fresno State, and he was yet another rookie receiver in last year’s historic class to look incredibly polished as a first-year player. Adams was fed 66 targets by MVP QB Aaron Rodgers and turned them into a promising 38 receptions for 446 yards and three touchdowns in 16 appearances.

We all know that Adams is capable of so much more in the Packers offense, and even though Randall Cobb is back on the team after re-signing in the offseason, it’s pretty clear that the second-year wideout is ready for a bigger workload. He’ll likely cut into Cobb’s targets in addition to carving out his own opportunities, and Adams is the type of smart and smooth route-runner who can reliably get open. He also has excellent hands that were the subject of much adoration in his first offseason, so there’s no doubt that he can make a big impact in 2015 as the Packers No. 3 receiver.

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Jeff Janis or Jared Abbrederis (the former, who received Jordy Nelson comparisons as a draft prospect, has looked better this offseason) will be looking for targets of their own, but Adams is clearly the second-year wideout with the most polish.

Adams is busy earnin’ more praise this offseason, and perhaps the most effusive praise came from Rodgers. Per ESPN Wisconsin’s Jason Wilde, Rodgers said of the 22-year-old WR, “In my mind, he has humongous upside – and he’s starting to reach that upside. I think the opportunities are going to come for him. He’s got two great guys to play with. His attention to detail is very impressive and his approach.”

Rodgers cited Adams’s obvious athletic ability, attention to detail, and work ethic for reasons why he believes the second-year pro has “humongous upside”. It’s important to note that Rodgers isn’t a guy who hands out praise without reason, so Adams is clearly doing all the right things. There’s also no doubt that Rodgers puts receivers he trusts in a position to do some big-time damage, and it means that Adams must be watched even more closely this upcoming season.

Of course, Rodgers’s praise raises the question, how good can Adams be next season? I mean, if you ask Cobb, he’ll be better than everyone thinks. Everyone knows that Adams is a player to watch, but it sounds like the Packers stars want us to raise expectations of him this year.

According to the USA Today’s Tom Pelissero, Cobb said of Adams, “I think a lot of people don’t understand how good Davante Adams is going to be … but he’s going to wake people up this year.”

That might be even higher praise, especially considering that Davante Adams woke up plenty of people with some fantastic performances last season, including his big games against the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Divisional Round. Those two 100-yard performances were critical, as the first showed that he’s capable of leading a passing attack if the opposition can cover the team’s top two wideouts, while the Cowboys game showed off his playmaking ability both before and after the catch (we all remember his highlight-reel TD in that one).

But while Adams played well as a rookie and showed plenty of promise, he did have some issues. Firstly, his 6.8 yards per target average was below-average, especially when you account for the fact that he was catching passes from Rodgers, who helped Jordy Nelson and Cobb average 10.1 yards per target each. Adams was promising and showed incredible clutchness and focus, but he also caught just 57.9% of everything thrown at him.

And although Adams had amazing hands as a college prospect (he was money for Derek Carr on back-shoulder throws), he did drop four passes on those 66 targets last year (well, PFF had him at 62 targets), per Pro Football Focus. That’s not a terrible mark, but it did put him in the subpar Percy Harvin and Taylor Gabriel drop rate range in 2014. PFF also had Adams with the league’s third-lowest yards per route run average.

It’s important to realize that when you are projecting a player’s second-year season, you have to put the negatives in context. His drops weren’t really a major issue, and they will most likely go down with an increased role. Perhaps some of those drops were concentration-related, though Adams’s ability to rise to the occasion in big moments seems to indicate that they might have been as a result of bad luck or part of him adjusting to the NFL from a less competitive college conference.

Nov 30, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) reacts after dropping a pass during the game against the New England Patriots at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won 26-21. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers called on Adams to run plenty of routes, but he wasn’t targeted often on those routes, causing his yards per route run numbers to take a hit.

He’ll have to do a better job of increasing his catch rate, but, again, a larger role in the offense with more targets will help that cause. Adams was looked over in favor of Nelson and Cobb (and for good reason, no doubt) when he ran routes last year, but it sounds like Rodgers and the Packers are ready to unleash him.

There’s no doubt that Adams has the physical tools to be a really good receiver in this league, as he runs a forty in the mid 4.5s at 6’1″, 212 pounds with a monster vertical.

The issue is that while he will receive a bigger role in the offense, it’s hard to see him hoarding enough targets with Nelson and Cobb in front of him (and others like Janis and TE Richard Rodgers looking for opportunities) to have a true breakout season in the Packers offense.

But the hype surrounding Adams is warranted, and you can ask the Cowboys, Patriots, and Miami Dolphins that if you think the Packers are over-zealous in hyping their talented second-year wideout.

Next: Packers: Historical struggles vs. AD

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