Miami Dolphins: Don’t underestimate Kenny Stills
Since the Miami Dolphins started wide receiver Rishard Matthews over offseason trade acquisition Kenny Stills in the team’s preseason dress rehearsal game against the Atlanta Falcons, the “watch out for Matthews” takes started rolling in. Matthews has undeniable talent and is good enough to compete for a role in the Dolphins offense now that he’s matured, but it’s still a stretch to expect him to push a player of Stills’s caliber.
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Drew Brees helped him plenty, but, well, you don’t finish second in the NFL with 11.2 yards per target, according to Advanced Football Analytics, without being at least a little good. I mean, the other wide receivers to average at least ten yards per target in 2014 were DeSean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Odell Beckham Jr., T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, and Jordy Nelson.
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That’s pretty good company to be in, because all of those receivers are among the game’s elites and are No. 1-caliber wideouts. Stills isn’t on par with those receivers, and his enormous yards per target average was also helped along by his limited role (just 83 targets, but it’s worth noting that D-Jax had only 88 himself), quarterback situation, and status as a deep threat (he averaged 14.8 yards per reception with 33.7% of his targets coming at least 15 yards down the field).
There’s this narrative that Ryan Tannehill is a dreadful deep passer, but that narrative stems from the fact that he’s so good at playing the intermediate game. Because he’s a non-elite quarterback who was fifth in the NFL in completion percentage, the fact that he was in the middle-of-the-pack among QBs in Pro Football Focus’s “Accuracy Percentage” on throws of at least 20 yards goes overlooked.
No quarterback threw deep passes less frequently than Tannehill last season as a percentage of his total attempts, but consider that Brees was second-lowest on the list. Stills ran plenty of deep routes, but, as per PFF, Mike Wallace was targeted on a higher percentage of his deep routes.
Last season, Tannehill threw 24 passes of at least 20 yards in Wallace’s direction, eight to Brian Hartline, four to Brandon Gibson, and three apiece to Jarvis Landry and Matthews. None of those guys caught more than one-third (Landry) of everything thrown at them. As the aforementioned “Accuracy Percentage” stat shows us, this was a case of the Miami Dolphins receivers leaving plays on the table in 2014.
Consider Wallace. The man was simply atrocious vertically, and it never seemed like he was on the same page as Tannehill. Yes, Tannehill’s strength isn’t the deep ball, but it’s kind of pathetic when a player catches just 25% of 24 deep passes thrown at him. But that’s where Wallace was at last season.
Now consider Stills. According to PFF, no receiver caught a higher percentage of 20+ yard passes last season than the former Saints standout, and only one receiver came within ten percentage points of his 64.3% catch rate on such throws. This wasn’t just a one-year blip either, because he tied with Hartline (another feather in Tannehill’s cap) for 14th in catch rate on such targets with five touchdown receptions and no drops. Meanwhile, Wallace had a 16.7% catch rate with more drops (two) than touchdown receptions (one).
The numbers that Stills has put up in a limited role with the Saints over the past two seasons have been nothing short of exceptional, and it’s pretty mind-blowing to think that a player caught 75.9% of everything thrown at him despite also averaging 14.8 yards per catch. In 2013, Stills had 12.8 (!) yards per target due to 20.0 yards per reception with a touchdown on 10% of his targets. If that isn’t a sign of a beastly playmaker, then I don’t know what is.
Sep 30, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Kenny Stills (84) congratulates running back Darren Sproles (43) after Sproles scored a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports
Honestly, it’s just disrespectful to even consider the idea of Matthews usurping a player with Stills’s natural talent. And here’s another thing. Matthews caught just two passes for four yards and a touchdown on his five targets against the Falcons as the starter. Stills put up a more efficient two receptions for 26 yards on three targets in that game, which isn’t bad for a guy who was dealing with a calf injury a couple of weeks ago.
Stills is probably someone you want to dock in fantasy leagues just because of the fact that the Dolphins will use a rotation of sorts at the wide receiver position, because they have so much pass-catching depth. However, there isn’t a single player on the roster with an ounce of Stills’s vertical playmaking ability, and he’s been much more effective at snaring deep passes than Wallace ever was with the Dolphins.
I’ll bet Wallace will work out better for Teddy Bridgewater, because, for whatever reason, it just didn’t click for him in Miami. Again, he caught about one-sixth and one-fourth of his deep passes with the Dolphins in the past two seasons, whereas Hartline was a top-15 league leader in catch rate on 20-yard passes in 2013.
While it is perfectly valid to be happy with Matthews’s progress, don’t forget just how good Kenny Stills has been from a statistical perspective over the past two seasons. Stills has been called the “ideal” receiver for Tannehill, who said the receiver might be the smoothest route-runner he’s played with.
I doubt you are underestimating him, but, in case you are, please don’t. He will fill an important role for the Dolphins this season and is only just rounding into form after his injury. Stills is at his best as a deep threat, but he can bring more to the table than just big plays due to his good hands, body control, athleticism, and extremely underrated quickness and burst.
Heck, if he gets enough targets in Miami, then he has a shot- it isn’t a likelihood, after all- at emerging as a true No. 1 target in this league.