Tony Romo Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

When the Dallas Cowboys took on the New York Giants last season, star quarterback Tony Romo was a sure bet to have a strong day through the air against an injury-depleted and ineffective secondary. In 2014, the Giants, according to Pro Football-Reference, allowed 6.8 net yards per attempt through the air (24th in the NFL) and 25.0 points per game, and the Cowboys took full advantage of that by scoring 31 points in both of their victories.

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Although Romo will no longer get to benefit from DeMarco Murray, who had 128 and 121 rushing yards against the Giants league-worst run defense (a ridiculous 4.9 yards per carry allowed for the season) in both outings, we have every reason to believe that the second-best quarterback in the 2014 season will pick up where he left off against the Giants when both teams face off on Sunday Night Football to open up their regular season campaigns.

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Trading for Kam Chancellor is almost every team’s dream, but no team would need his services more than the Giants. Rookie Landon Collins is no sure thing, but he’s the team’s best safety on paper with Brandon Meriweather, Cooper Taylor, and Craig Dahl being the team’s other options. Throw in the fact that star defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul won’t be able to play this week, and you can see just how much pressure star corners Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara are under.

When the Cowboys first played the Giants last season in Week 7, Romo was a surgical 17-23 with 279 passing yards, three touchdowns, and an interception, averaging a mind-boggling 12.13 yards per attempt in the process. Just a month later, Romo delivered another masterpiece in a three-point game, tossing four scores with no picks and posting 10.58 yards per attempt with a 69.23% completion percentage, as per PFR.

To do that twice in the span of about a month against the same team is extraordinary, and Romo clearly had the Giants number last season. Although both DRC and Amukamara are healthy and ready to roll, JPP’s absence and the issues at safety mean that the Giants are in and equally unfavorable position.

While not having a sure-fire feature back hurts the Cowboys, it actually helps Romo’s fantasy value this week. Based on the fact that the Giants should have no trouble moving the ball through the air against an Orlando Scandrick-less secondary, we should be in store for another shootout. Romo needed just 23 and 26 pass attempts to carve up the Giants, so his fantasy upside only increases with more pass attempts on the horizon in Week 1.

Eli Manning was no slouch against the Cowboys either with 248 yards, three TDs, and no picks in the first matchup and 338 yards, three touchdowns, and just one pick in their November rematch. Again, this all bodes well for Romo’s chances of blowing up from a fantasy perspective, especially since ace deep threat Terrance Williams should have an even easier time torching the Giants secondary, which will be even more vulnerable to the deep ball.

In fact, Williams, who caught just one pass for 18 yards in both games against the Giants last year, could go from being a non-factor to an X-Factor for the Cowboys offense, and that would be huge for Tony Romo. Last season, Romo largely relied on Dez Bryant to torch the Giants defense, and Bryant should continue to prove to be difficult to cover.

But Williams, Cole Beasley, the tight ends, or even Lance Dunbar could be more involved in the passing game this week, so that’s worth monitoring. Romo has shown that he can use just about anybody effectively in the passing game, and that’s even more worrisome for a Giants defense that is only strong on the defensive line and at cornerback.

Look for Romo to put up 270 passing yards with a pair of touchdowns and no interceptions in a precise, efficient display against the Giants secondary. He’s locked in as a top-five fantasy quarterback this week, given his massive success against the same opponent in 2014 and his own brilliance as a quarterback.

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