Which Green Bay Packers run defense will show up in 2015?

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The Green Bay Packers run defense was a tale of two halves in 2014, defined by the transition of Clay Matthews from outside linebacker to the inside. With Letroy Guion and Josh Boyd left to handle the nose tackle position with B.J. Raji on injured reserve, opposing running backs routinely gained the first-step advantage over the Green Bay Packers’ second level.

As Guion came on strong through the heart of the season, however, with Matthews slotting in behind him, things changed. From their bye in week nine onwards, the Packers allowed their opposition’s running backs to top 100 yards on the ground just twice, scoring two touchdowns combined. In the first half of the season, Green Bay had allowed four totals over 100 yards with six touchdowns to running backs.

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B.J. Raji’s return will be critical, and with Matthews expected to line up on the inside for early downs and in running situations, there’s potential. As Rob Demovsky of ESPN wisely highlights, however, Green Bay’s late-season improvement in 2014 may have been misleading.

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The Packers ranked 29th against the rush following week 11, which Demovsky notes is the final time that Green Bay faced a running back who would finish 2014 with 1,000 rushing yards. Between the Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, Bills, Buccaneers and Lions, there wasn’t much to fear. Nobody like Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch or Jamaal Charles, the first three running backs that Green Bay will face in 2015.

“I think we’ll find out early,” Raji tells Demovsky. “Ultimately one game is one game, but I think this will be a good test for us, a good challenge. A great back like Forte and a scheme that does enough to keep you honest, so I think it will be a good challenge.”

The early worry will be that Letroy Guion and Datone Jones‘ suspensions leave the Packers thin along the defensive line, something that coordinator Dom Capers is well aware of. “We know that we’re going to get challenged and challenged early, especially with a couple linemen not being in there, so other guys have to step up, have to perform.”

Mike Pennel wil take over Guion’s role in the base defense, adding some bulk to the line alongside Raji and the excellent Mike Daniels. Sam Barrington should play a strong hand in the success of this unit, as well, figuring to factor in on all three downs. Barrington patrols the line with a powerful style, and should he be able to maximize his tremendous physical talents, he possesses the potential to grow into a plus run defender from the inside.

Perhaps Green Bay’s early schedule has a silver lining. As Raji says, they’ll know right away how the defense stacks up against the run, leaving them plenty of time to adjust should troubles arise. They may lack another weapon like Matthews to plug in as a quick-fix, leaving Raji’s performance as a tipping point for the Packers success.

Next: Making sense of Alonzo Harris, Green Bay's surprise third RB

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