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Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck injury’s effect on TY Hilton

By Kevin Parvizi

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By now, you’ve probably heard the news that Indianapolis Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck is expected to miss tonight’s rivalry matchup against the Houston Texans, as per the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Although Luck will still work out before the start of the game, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported even more recently that the struggling fourth-year signal-caller will not be able to start.

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In his place, the Colts will turn to veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck for a second straight week, and this causes the rest of us to focus our attention on the team’s skill position players. Many fantasy owners are curious as to how Hasselbeck starting against J.J. Watt and the Texans (a stronger defense on paper than the Jacksonville Jaguars unit) will affect key players like Frank Gore, TY Hilton, and Donte Moncrief.

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Hilton’s Week 5 prospects against the Texans are especially interesting, as the Atlanta Falcons had no issues torching Houston’s defense in the previous work. Moreover, Hilton has been beyond brilliant against the Texans in the past, and Rotoworld noted that the Colts best player on offense (with Luck out, of course) averages 110 yards and a touchdown whenever he faces these familiar foes.

Last season, Hilton averaged a hefty 89.7 yards per game against all opponents, but that average has been down to 73.5 yards per game through four games this season. However, that’s still an incredibly impressive mark, because you have to account for a five factors:

1. The offense as a whole, specifically Luck, has sucked.

2. There are more mouths to feed in the offense now that Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett are on the team.

3. The offensive line has been awful, which, of course, has an effect on how many good opportunities receivers get, especially receivers with vertical ability.

4. He had to deal with an injury in the first two week of the season.

5. Hasselbeck started in Week 4.

No matter how you spin it, Hilton has been their most effective player on offense this year, and his ability to stretch the field and make plays have been key. The issue is that we can’t expect Hilton to make many plays tonight, based on what happened last week in Hasselbeck’s start for Andrew Luck.

Hilton led the team with 13 targets and was understandably Hasselbeck’s go-to guy, but the 25-year-old FIU product averaged a meager 9.6 yards per reception, turning seven catches into just 67 yards. Hasselbeck didn’t throw him many high-quality targets, and we can expect another possession-like game from Hilton today. We all know that the Colts current QB doesn’t have the arm strength to challenge defenses or properly use Hilton’s speed to his advantage, and facing a front seven with the likes of Watt and Jadeveon Clowney only increases the likelihood of Hilton having another sub-10.0 YPR game.

Fantasy owners know that Hilton is one of those players who can win you a game on one play, but that sort of spark just won’t happen with Hasselbeck under center, especially once you factor in how magnified the Indianapolis Colts offensive line issues will be against their Week 5 opponents.

That said, the Texans secondary has never managed to come up with an answer for TY Hilton in the past, and there’s a good chance they’ll continue to have troubles covering him in tonight’s game. That could allow Hilton to pile up enough receptions, but that would mean that his fantasy impact would be even more predicated on his ability to find the end zone. Although he averages a touchdown scored every time he faces the Texans, he has yet to find the end zone in the 2015 season.

The Texans are 26th in the NFL in scoring defense right now and have been surprisingly subpar against the pass, including a 7:2 TD:INT ratio allowed. Hilton clearly has the ability and matchup opportunity, but it all depends on what the Colts gameplan will be in their second game with Hasselbeck at quarterback.

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