San Diego Chargers: Keenan Allen set for big Week 6

San Diego Chargers third-year wide receiver Keenan Allen has flashed his rookie form throughout the first five weeks of the 2015 regular season after being held to just 783 receiving yards last season. Thanks to an improved running game due to rookie Melvin Gordon‘s modest success behind an awful offensive line, Allen and the Chargers passing game have been able to move the ball, thus allowing the team’s No. 1 receiver to average a whopping 88.8 receiving yards per game.

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Allen has an opportunity to have another big week here in Week 6, because the stars are aligning for him to make some plays against the Green Bay Packers this week. The most difficult challenge for the Chargers will be stopping an excellent Packers pass rush that absolutely pulverized Nick Foles last week, as defensive ends Mike Daniels and Datone Jones completely ripped apart an overmatched St. Louis Rams offensive line.

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Facing a sure-fire top-five pass defense at Lambeau, Philip Rivers does not look poised to have a strong game against Green Bay, who have finally commanded respect around the league for being an elite pass D. Rivers might not even have ace possession receiver Stevie Johnson out there this week, as Johnson missed the Week 5 Monday Night Football loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers and hasn’t practiced this week (as of writing this, we’re still waiting for Friday’s practice report) due to this hamstring injury.

If Johnson can’t go, that makes Allen the clear go-to wide receiver, and that should make him a target-monster. In fact, he is averaging a little bit over 11 targets per game this season, and while it would be unfair to expect a 166 or 133-yard performance (he hit these totals in Week 1 and Week 3, respectively) this week, the target numbers show that Allen is generally a consistent bet to produce. Outside of a 16-yard dud against the Cincinnati Bengals, Allen’s 57 receiving yards against Pittsburgh were his lowest of the season.

The thing about that Steelers game is that Allen could have easily had a monster game. He totally embarrassed Ross Cockrell, but Rivers’s pass was batted at the line of scrimmage. The former Cal superstar could have added another touchdown, too, but he would instead finish with a modest 6/57/0 line. However, the important thing here is that he had ten targets with Johnson out, so we can expect a similarly big Week 6 workload if the Chargers key offseason addition is indeed unavailable.

Even if Johnson plays, there’s still reason to believe that Allen can put up big numbers. Although the Packers pass defense has surrendered just 5.1 net yards per pass attempt and has a whopping eight interceptions compared to just five touchdowns allowed, they have been a bit vulnerable against No. 1 receivers.

Sep 13, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) reacts after a reception during the second half of the game against the Detroit Lions at Qualcomm Stadium. San Diego won 33-28. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

According to Football Outsiders, there isn’t a better team in the NFL right now at covering No. 2 receivers, and the Packers have also excelled against tight ends and running backs. However, No. 1 receivers have averaged 72.6 yards per game against them.

Even last week against St. Louis, Stedman Bailey (the Rams default No. 1 option) turned just five targets into 73 yards. Before that, Doug Baldwin had a 7/92/1 line on just eight targets, and Kansas City Chiefs star receiver Jeremy Maclin blew up for eight catches, 141 yards, and a touchdown.

Basically, the Packers pass defense is one of the best in the business, but No. 1 receivers can make things happen against them.

That bodes well for Allen, particularly if the Chargers are forced into garbage time situations, as the Packers are the best in the business at jumping out to big leads (check the Kansas City game as an example of this, as well as the entire 2014 regular season).

Rivers should find it difficult to find time in the pocket, but Allen’s game is based on quickly getting open, and he can win in contested situations.

With Johnson not 100% or out, Allen gets a further boost, and he is the player on the Chargers offense with the best chance of having an impressive performance. After all, it’s hard to bet against someone who is averaging 7.8 receptions per game this year.

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