Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck a lock for a huge fantasy week

Indianapolis Colts star quarterback Andrew Luck looked like one of the worst players at the position over the first three weeks of the 2015 season, and he’s still sitting at a meager 57.2% completion percentage as a result of that rough start.

ALSO ON SPIN ZONE: Did the Colts have one of the greatest defensive players ever?

After the Colts decided to give him two weeks off in order to heal from what seemed to be a significant injury, Luck looked like the top-ten quarterback of old, tossing three touchdowns to no picks in a Sunday Night Football loss to the New England Patriots. In fact, Luck threw for over 300 yards (312) for the first time all season, and this is coming from a player who averaged about 298 passing yards per contest in 2014.

More from Indianapolis Colts

This week, Luck will get to face an even easier secondary when the Colts take on the New Orleans Saints tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The home-field advantage won’t mean that much against a fellow dome team that is, incidentally, better on the road than at home, but Luck doesn’t need any extra advantage to torch one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses.

Per Pro-Football Reference, only one team allows more net yards per pass attempt than the Saints mark of 7.7, and they are also 31st in the league with two interceptions forced. Teams have an 11:2 TD:INT ratio when facing Rob Ryan’s defense, though they did critically show up in a big way against Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in a huge Thursday Night Football win last week.

That said, the Colts are better-equipped to have a big day against the Saints, because they match up better with New Orleans’s defense. Firstly, the Colts have much more depth at receiver, and I would take Donte Moncrief, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Andre Johnson, and Phillip Dorsett over Leonard Hankerson, Roddy White, and Jacob Tamme in a heartbeat. Allen and Fleener are especially important, since the Saints, who are last in the NFL as a pass defense in Football Outsider’s DVOA, are the worst team in the league at covering TEs (also per FO’s DVOA stat).

For the first time all season, Luck had more touchdowns than interceptions and more than 300 passing yards in Week 6, and he figures to be even more ready this week. That doesn’t bode well for this Saints defense, which benefited from a hot start (shoutout to Michael Mauti) that forced the Falcons to abandon their running game and become one-dimensional as an offense, which was a death-knell for them.

It’s hard to see this happening for a second straight week, but, even if it does, that won’t prevent Luck from racking up huge passing yards. This prediction isn’t necessarily that the Saints pass defense will do poorly, but, rather, a proclamation that Luck is locked in to have a monster week. Delvin Breaux and Cameron Jordan are playing like two of the best players at their positions, but it’s hard to like what others have done on this defense, specifically Brandon Browner and the linebackers in coverage.

Using Frank Gore and the tight ends will be a huge key for the Colts offense, and I trust Luck’s ability to find the right mis-matches against a soft defense. Even though he played the worst football of his career to start this season, he was so good in his first three seasons and played cleanly enough last week that I trust him to make it back-to-back bounce-back games post-injury.

Oct 18, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) throws a pass against the New England Patriots during the NFL game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

If Luck doesn’t toss 300 passing yards with another favorable TD:INT ratio, then he should come out of his game extremely disappointed.

Anything other than a strong display would cause those Luck questions to re-surface, and, well, we don’t really want to hear too many hot takes against a 26-year-old QB who had 7.7 yards per attempt and 40 TD passes in 2014.

Luck was a victim of unfair expectations coming into the season when some had him tabbed as the MVP favorite, but he’s undoubtedly more like the Week 6 version of himself than the injured edition we saw in the first three games.

Additionally, Drew Brees is averaging an insane 323.2 passing yards per game and is quietly playing at a high level with a 68.2% completion percentage to boot.

I don’t trust a Colts pass defense that is 29th in the league in net yards per pass attempt allowed (only two spots above the Saints) to stop him. This is going to be a shootout, and fantasy owners of Luck will likely be rolling in points after Sunday’s game.

Next: Was a Colts team one of the greatest in NFL history?

More from NFL Spin Zone