New England Patriots: Tom Brady ready to boss in Week 9, especially over middle
It’s been a long week of rest for the New England Patriots after they thoroughly dismantled the rival Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football, and star quarterback Tom Brady put in another MVP performance by tossing 356 yards and four touchdowns on 26-of-38 passing despite facing constant pressure. He’ll still have to deal with Ryan Kerrigan and the Washington Redskins pass rush in Week 9, but the expectation is still for him to have a monster game.
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Armed with one of the NFL’s best pass-catching backs in Dion Lewis, the league’s best pure slot receiver in Julian Edelman, the NFL’s best tight end in Rob Gronkowski, and arguably the NFL’s most underrated receiver in Danny Amendola, Brady owns every defense he comes up against. As we saw last week, he will find your biggest weakness and exploit the heck out of it, but for as often as he’ll spam the same play in the context of a single game, he can adjust strategies game-to-game better than anyone else in the history of the sport.
That’s what the Redskins will be up against this Sunday after a bye week of rest, and it might not even matter that they had an extra time to prepare. With a 68.9% completion percentage and an insane average of 344.3 passing yards per game, Brady is dealing. The last time he had a completion percentage that high was in 2007, and he’s hit 300 passing yards in a season on three occasions. But 344.3? He’s never sustained that average over 16 games.
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He’s playing so well, however, that nobody doubts the fact that he can keep it up, and the Redskins certainly aren’t in a position to question the amount of yardage he is pouring on defenses each game. The Redskins defense hasn’t been terrible this season (16th in points per game allowed, per Pro-Football Reference), but the issue here is that they don’t match up favorably at all against the Pats.
For starters, the Redskins are 25th in the league at defending tight ends when using Football Outsider’s DVOA% . Bashaud Breeland is a top corner and Chris Culliver could make his return to the starting lineup this week, but the Redskins defense leaves a lot to be desired over the middle of the field. They have one of the NFL’s worst safety duos, and it’s hard to trust 3-4 inside linebackers like Perry Riley in coverage either.
This all obviously presents the Redskins with huge problems against Brady and the Pats, because New England’s weapons are at their best over the middle of the field. Of course, no player is more dangerous than Rob “Master Chief” Gronkowski, and, unfortunately for Joe Barry, no player has a better Week 9 matchup than Gronk. He’s first on the team with seven receiving touchdowns and 16.2 yards per reception, and his average of 92.3 receiving yards per game is bested by only six wide receivers with at least five games played.
So Gronk is essentially a lock to go off, and it’s hard to see the Redskins having much success against players who aren’t being covered by Breeland. I’d like to see the Patriots sacrificing “X” receiver Brandon LaFell to Breeland’s coverage, allowing everyone else to take advantage of light matchups.
Looking at some more numbers, the Redskins are fourth in the league in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed on plays over the middle of the field, as defined by PFR, with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio.
That’s pretty terrible, but it only gets worse when you factor in Brady’s unsurprising success on such throws. With nine touchdowns and no picks on throws in this region of the field, Brady’s QB Rating is bested by only fellow MVP candidate Andy Dalton‘s mark, and the Patriots star is averaging 10.2 yards per attempt with a 74.3% completion percentage when throwing over the middle.
Oct 25, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) makes a call at the line of scrimmage during the fourth quarter against the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. The New England Patriots won 30-23. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Basically, he’s perfect, and he’s going to boss this region of the field on Sunday, barring an unexpected development on the part of the Redskins defense.
Washington’s incredibly disappointing 4.9 yards per carry allowed, which is third-worst in the NFL, will only further play into the Patriots hands, and Brady essentially looks like a lock to have another fabulous game.
I mean, he’s never had less than 275 passing yards in a single contest yet, and he’ll be going up against a defense that his 24th in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Proclaiming domination from Brady isn’t a bold call at all, but the specific matchups related to this week’s Patriots-Redskins game only make a big fantasy performance from him all the more predictable. Though I must say, Gronk’s fantasy owners should be the happiest to see the Redskins on the Patriots schedule this season.