Atlanta Falcons: William Moore at crossroads here in 2015

Atlanta Falcons veteran starting strong safety William Moore is the type of player that’s easy to root for, especially if you are the fan of a team that hasn’t had too many playmakers on the defensive side of the ball in recent years. With his leadership, willingness to take responsibility for mistakes, and the fact that he’s just one three defensive backs (Earl Thomas and Charles Woodson are the others) with at least 35 passes defended, 15 picks, four fumbles recovered, and ten fumbles forced since the 2010 season, he’s become a fixture in Atlanta.

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The problem is that his playmaking ability mars the fact that he’s a mistake-prone player, and the 2015 season has provided us with another example of how the plays he generates shroud these issues. Moore, who admitted in the piece on 247Sports linked above that he isn’t a pure strong safety, has struggled to consistently come up and make plays in run defense this year, in addition to making mistakes in coverage.

Quarterbacks have picked on Moore’s coverage frequently this season, because, per Pro Football Focus, no other safety has faced more targets as a proportion of their total snaps in coverage. Moore’s deficiencies in pass defense in the Kam Chancellor role have been exposed frequently, most namely in the loss to the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football and the Week 1 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

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Is Moore a bad safety? No. But he misses tackles, blows coverage assignments, and is no longer the same player he used to be. Not only are the Falcons deeper at safety than before, but they have also added young, cheap talent. One of those young, cheap players is Kemal Ishmael, who is just 24 and received the start at SS last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Moore out with a groin injury. Ishmael held up well overall, as Jameis Winston and the Bucs weren’t able to get much going against a player who will make just $675,000 in the final year of his contract in 2016.

Meanwhile, Moore is slated to count $6.65 million against the cap next season as a 31-year-old, and his cap hit jumps up to an untenable $8.625 million in the final year of his contract in 2017. Only 12 safeties count more money against the cap this season than Moore’s $5.368 million cap hit, so you can only imagine where he’d rank in 2016 and 2017 when that number rises. Even with $3.3 million and $1.65 million in dead cap, respectively, in the final two seasons of his deal due to remaining signing bonus money, Moore is very much a cut candidate upon the conclusion of the 2015 season.

Basically, the Falcons are going to have to make a tough decision on Moore sooner rather than later, and my gut feeling is that it might not be so tough for Dan Quinn and Thomas Dimitroff. While Moore is still a starting-caliber safety in this league, it’s hard to call him an above-average starter. Yes, he has two interceptions on the season with four passes defended and is good for a game-changing hit, but his stat sheet is filled with empty tackles and doesn’t reflect underlying issues.

Of course, the NFL is all about the bottom line, and expensive, 30-year-old safeties on a rebuilding defense with younger, less expensive options generally don’t stick around. The Falcons could use a veteran leader like Moore around, but it’s starting to become hard to argue that he’s a better option at strong safety than, say, Ishmael. Perhaps calling him a liability is too strong, but, well, a player who is set to count $6.65 million against the cap needs to be a clear asset in order to justify the cost.

Considering the fact that Moore played in just seven games in 2014 and missed last week’s game with an injury, health is a background issue worth keeping in the back of our minds here. Every week, Moore is trying to prove to the organization that he’s worth keeping beyond the 2015 season, and further improvement from Ishmael and other safeties on the roster like Robensen Therezie would make his chances of returning seem even less likely.

Sep 3, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons strong safety William Moore (25) in action against the Baltimore Ravens in the first quarter at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

At this point, I think Moore is on the outs, because it doesn’t matter what he’s done in the past or how many highlight-reel interceptions or big hits he makes. What matters is cost, overall effectiveness, fit, and the other options around him. None of these four factors are working in his favor, so the playmaking is merely a superficial benefit in this case.

The Falcons defense has been surprisingly strong in Quinn’s first year, as they are in the top half of the league in yards allowed and points per game allowed after unquestionably being one of the NFL’s worst units in 2014.

This rapid improvement has little to do with Moore, meaning that it’s hard to see the 30-year-old having a future with the team beyond the 2015 season. The Falcons already have players who qualify as leaders and building blocks, so age is more of a detriment than experience a positive for Moore’s chances of sticking around.