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New England Patriots: Danny Amendola is grossly underrated

By Kevin Parvizi

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The New England Patriots follow the “next man up” mantra as well as any other team in the NFL, and this is especially true when it comes to replacing injured pass-catchers.

In this case, however, Danny Amendola isn’t just the “next man up” to injured star Julian Edelman, who was previously the “next man up” to 2013 free agent departure Wes Welker. No, Amendola is a man who is about to finally get his long-awaited share of the spotlight ever since being signed by the team to a rather lucrative contract in that same offseason.

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Instead of replacing Welker in 2013, Amendola caught just 54 passes and was dubbed as a cut candidate, spending time on sidelines and missing four games in total with injuries. Already known as an injury-prone player before he signed his contract with the Patriots, Amendola’s status as a player made of “broken glass” was further, uh, cemented in his first season, and he pretty much became an afterthought as Edelman emerged as Brady’s No. 1 receiver and a bona fide star.

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That trend continued in 2014, but Edelman’s success and much larger role overshadowed the fact that Amendola was a pretty damn good possession receiver when they actually threw the ball to him. He quietly posted high catch rates, moving the chains and making critical plays. In fact, Amendola was 8th among all wide receivers in 2013 in Advanced Football Analytics’s WPA despite the fact that he only earned 84 targets all season.

Essentially, Amendola consistently came up big in the clutch, and his reduced role can be traced to his injury history. If you’ll notice, Amendola’s role increases whenever the Patriots need him the most. For example, it took him 13 weeks to notch his 12th reception of the 2014 season, but he had a combined 12 receptions in his final two games of the 2014 campaign.

He also had five receptions and at least one touchdown in the two playoff games in which the Patriots opponent put up a fight, because do you really need a receiver you only use in the clutch when you are blowing out the Indianapolis “let’s find a convenient excuse to explain this loss and create a needless controversy” Colts?

There’s a reason why Brady said that Amendola “always comes up big when we need him”, via CSNNE’s Phil Perry, and it goes back to the fact that he had such a high WPA in 2013. Amendola’s knack for missing time with injuries prevents him from being an even bigger part of the offense, but with his time in New England potentially coming to a close in the near future for cap reasons, his role increased this year even prior to Dion Lewis‘s and Edelman’s injury.

As of right now, Amendola is third on the team with 40 receptions, fourth with 48 targets, and third in receiving yards (fourth in yards per game). Maybe most importantly, his catch rate of 83.3%, which is quite ridiculous, leads the team. A throw to Amendola is a high-percentage one, and that’s probably why Brady looks for him in key situations, as he did in last week’s last-gasp win over the Giants.

Third downs are where Amendola dominates, and no wide receiver with at least 15 targets has a higher catch rate on third downs than him. I mean, if a catch rate of 83.3% doesn’t make you respect him enough, then maybe his 87.5% catch rate on third downs, courtesy of Pro-Football Reference, will.

It’s hard to argue that Amendola is a better player than Edelman, and it would be quite foolish to do so. Although Amendola has a sky-high catch rate, Edelman faces much more difficult matchups and decisively outplayed his fellow slot weapon in both the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Edelman is one of the best in the business, and Amendola is merely a “good” receiver who is vastly undervalued by the general populace.

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However, if there’s one facet of the game in which Amendola is superior to Edelman, then it’s holding into passes. Edelman is not a drop-prone player by any means, so this comparison is merely a way of highlighting the fact that Amendola has displayed elite hands this season. Both he and Seattle Seahawks ultra-reliable (and perhaps similarly underrated, though more vocal) wide receiver Doug Baldwin haven’t dropped a pass this season, per Pro Football Focus, but Amendola’s accomplishment is slightly more notable, given the fact that he’s caught a couple of more passes.

Additionally, as Welker and Edelman can attest, catching hard-thrown, timing passes out of the slot with Brady as your QB can be conducive to drops.

Maybe this streak holds up, maybe it doesn’t, but Amendola’s efficiency and brilliance in third down situations are a reminder of why the Patriots signed him for so much in the first place, and why they have wisely kept up with his cap hits despite popular belief dictating that they should have cut ties with him to save some cash.

Nov 8, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Danny Amendola (80) during the first quarter against the Washington Redskins at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN Boston’s Mike Reiss wrote that the Patriots, even with Lewis and Edelman out, will likely limit Amendola’s playing time. But should we really be surprised by this?

Even though the Bills struggles over the middle of the field and on short, quick passes dictate that Amendola, who had an absolutely brilliant catch against the Bills in Week 2 and once ran what Rex Ryan called the “greatest route” in NFL history against his New York Jets, will play a monstrous role on Monday night.

Even though the Patriots are expected to limit Amendola’s role in an effort to make sure that the oft-injured wideout doesn’t become their third pass-catcher with exceptional short-area quickness to miss time, particularly since injuries later in the season are a bigger deal, I still fully expect him to have a big game on MNF.

Maybe then, more people around the league will recognize that he’s more than just Edelman’s backup or the small guy who had that one killer catch earlier this season.

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No wide receiver with at least 20 targets has a higher catch rate than Amendola’s 83.3% mark. So chew on that as we get ready for Monday night’s game, because Amendola just might be the most underrated chain-mover in the game right now. He’s no Edelman, but you just might be sleeping a little too hard on him. Amendola’s 92.9% catch rate in the fourth quarter is also tops among WRs (only Delanie Walker has a higher percentage overall, as he’s at a cool 19-for-19 on targets in the final stanza), furthering the notion that he’s at his best in key situations.

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