Cleveland Browns: Pick Paxton Lynch Or Wait For the QB
By Peter Smith
With the Cleveland Browns trading down to the eighth pick of the 2016 NFL Draft in a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles, the assumption is that Carson Wentz and Jared Goff will be the top two picks of the draft.
Presumably the Los Angeles Rams will take Goff and the Eagles will take Wentz, but it doesn’t matter as far as the Browns are concerned. The next man up for the quarterbacks is Paxton Lynch from Memphis and if the Browns don’t take Lynch, they shouldn’t take a quarterback in 2016 and instead wait for 2017.
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In addition to moving down to No. 8, the Browns also received a third- and fourth-rounder this year, a first in 2017 and a second-round pick in 2018. The Browns sent their fourth-round pick next year, but as Overthecap.com points, the Browns are projected to be awarded three fourth-round picks and a fifth-round pick in compensatory selections, which will be trade-able assets as of 2017. Compensatory picks are at the end of the round, but nevertheless are useful assets and more than offset the loss of their actual fourth-round pick.
Certainly, the Browns could take Lynch eighth overall and have a quarterback with tremendous physical gifts and arguably as much potential as any player in this draft class. Lynch appears to fit what head coach Hue Jackson wants in a quarterback and has the arm strength, size and mobility that would make plenty of scouts and coaches drool.
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If the Browns opt to pass on Lynch, which appears to be the way they are leaning, they shouldn’t bother taking a quarterback in 2016, because there’s simply no point. Rather than taking a average or project quarterback, they can add a position player for Robert Griffin III and should he falter, the quarterback they select in 2017.
The fact that the Browns have amassed so many assets in the future could mean they are setting up for a situation like the now Los Angeles Rams just went through in order to get their quarterback. They made the conclusion that they wanted their guy in 2015 and prepared to make the moves necessary to acquire him starting then. The Browns may be preparing to do the same next year.
In 2017, the prize appears to be Clemson’s DeShaun Watson. Watson played eight games as a freshman before suffering an ACL tear. He worked to get back on the field for all of the 2016 season and was able to lead Dabo Swinney’s Tigers to the National Championship, only to fall short to Alabama. Nevertheless, Watson was the best player on the field by a wide margin. Though Watson will be a true junior, he is currently taking an impressive seven classes this spring semester, so the indication is he’s preparing to graduate next year and declare for the 2017 NFL Draft.
If Watson lives up to the promise he showed this past year, he could be an Andrew Luck type quarterback. If that proves to be the case, it’s a massive opportunity for a team like the Browns but would be incredibly expensive if they aren’t picking first overall.
Ideally, the Eagles go 1-15, the Browns get Watson and can use their own first rounder to add more help around him. But having those assets including two first-rounders potentially in the top 10, they have a lot of ammo to make a move. More than they did when they were unable to secure Griffin in 2012, who would ultimately be selected by the Washington Redskins.
That appears to be where the Browns are. Lynch, Griffin succeeding at a high level or Watson (or another top quarterback in 2017). As a result, it doesn’t make much sense to add a quarterback this year at any other point if Griffin falters, because whichever quarterback they add becomes virtually irrelevant when they add a top quarterback next year.
The reason why is simple math. Especially with the most recently negotiated collective bargaining agreement, practice time is extremely valuable because teams can’t get it back. That makes it incredibly difficult to develop 3 quarterbacks at the same time. It’s borderline impossible. There just aren’t enough reps to go around.
Let’s use Cardale Jones as an example, since he is a quarterback Hue Jackson likes and is incredibly popular in this region for obvious reasons in addition to his remarkable physical talents. This year, Cardale would get a lot of attention and probably get a good number of reps because Josh McCown shouldn’t require many, so it would basically be Griffin and Jones.
Now, if Griffin falters and the Browns are awful, they are likely going to select a first-round quarterback next year. Now, that quarterback is going to get a ton of reps, especially if Coach Jackson thinks that quarterback is good enough to start from Day One. Then Griffin is still there and taking 2nd team reps. Jones is getting whatever scraps are left.
Urban Meyer already came out and stated how important it is for whatever team selects Jones to be patient with him. He also pointed out how much the relationship with the coaching staff matters and pointed at that as a reason why he did not play as well this past year. Jones suddenly goes from being the future, getting attention and reps to being the third guy. It’s unclear if he will be able to handle that.
With limited reps, Jones would be receiving a ton of coaching through the other two guys, trying to pick up as much as possible watching them outside of individual drills. And since he isn’t getting as many practice reps, he doesn’t have as much film to watch in meetings and he does his own studying. He’s watching the reps of the other quarterbacks and having to do a lot of learning on his own. Nothing about this seems like a good situation for Jones. Few are equipped for it, which is why so few are able to excel in this environment.
This situation is actually playing out with the Rams right now. The Rams selected Sean Mannion in the third round of the 2015 NFL Draft. They also have Case Keenum and Nick Foles. Now, they will be adding presumably Jared Goff. Mannion’s reps and attention are going to drop significantly and while he still could develop into a good quarterback, the move feels like a wasted pick.
Rather than select Mannion, they could have added a position player that could now be working to aid Goff. Similarly, the pick the Browns would be spending on Jones could be utilized far more effectively adding a player that can help Griffin or the quarterback they select next year. Even if that pick is used on Roberto Aguayo, the kicker from Florida State.
Maybe the Browns end up getting a worthwhile quarterback down the line, but it seems unlikely and may not provide that much benefit anyway. If/when the Browns find their legitimate starter, then worry about developing a quarterback behind them. Focus on getting a starter before worrying about developing a long term backup.
This brings us to the Washington Redskins, as someone will undoubtedly be quick to point out that the Redskins selected Griffin second overall and selected Kirk Cousins in the fourth round in the same draft. Griffin is gone and now Cousins is the guy there.
There are a few key differences here. The biggest one is the fact that there wasn’t a veteran quarterback in the mix there. It was Griffin and Cousins. That was it. Additionally, Cousins was a quarterback that played 46 games at Michigan State, wasn’t a project and it was seen as a good value there and could’ve gone maybe two rounds earlier.
The other difference is that Griffin went down with a bad knee injury, thanks in no small part to recklessness by Griffin as well as the Redskins’ coaching staff. In other words, Cousins was able to learn on the fly and while he struggled, he was far more equipped to do that than Jones would be, who played all of 11 games at Ohio State. Using ‘raw’ to describe Jones at this point in his development would be more than generous.
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Giving Hue Jackson and Pep Hamilton ‘a toy’ isn’t a good use of draft resources. They have plenty of issues they need to address without using one on a mid round quarterback just to do it. If the Browns can find a talented undrafted free agent quarterback to bring in that can impress them and they opt to keep, great.
Beyond that, focus on gathering players that can help quarterbacks with an obvious path to success. Drafting someone only to see them end up in a situation like Mannion doesn’t make the Browns better. Worry about finding the guy instead of simply adding a guy. If the Browns don’t believe in Lynch, fine, but then wait until 2017 before drafting another quarterback.