Sunday Hot Takes: Indianapolis Colts Will Miss Playoffs…Again
By Ryan Disdier
The AFC South is suddenly bustling with talent. What does that mean? Well, for the Indianapolis Colts, it means the playoffs may be nothing more than a good thought.
Last year, the Indianapolis Colts loaded up their roster with a litany of veteran players. The hope was an AFC South title.
The result? An 8-8 record, second place in the division and no playoff berth. The hope is for the Colts to be better this year, but people seem to be forgetting the AFC South now features some very talented players.
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In 2016, I don’t think the Colts are in a position to challenge for a division title. For starters, the Colts are not a vastly improved team. Out of every team in the AFC South, the Colts have improved the least, and it’s really not even close.
First, let’s take a look at the minimal improvements the team made.
Yes, the team bolstered their offensive line by drafting Alabama center Ryan Kelly and tackles Le’Raven Clark and Joe Haeg . Yes, the team cut the dead weight by releasing Andre Johnson, Coby Fleener and Bjoern Werner. And yes, Andrew Luck will – presumably – be fully healthy and ready to go.
But for what the Colts have done to improve, look at what they haven’t.
In a division with two mobile quarterbacks and a myriad of talented receivers, Indy’s best pass-rusher is 35-year-old Robert Mathis, and its cornerback depth behind Vontae Davis is thin at best. The safety group is deficient, as well.
I look at this team, and I see a plethora of holes. Is there going to be any reliable pass rush? What’s their running back depth? Who’s in their secondary other than Davis and Mike Adams? The Colts finished 27th in total defense a year ago, and little was done to improve that side of the ball.
It doesn’t make a lot of sense why the team wouldn’t look to seriously upgrade the defensive depth.
Offensively, things are more stable, but holes are still apparent.
The team has virtually zero depth behind 33-year-old running back Frank Gore. If he doesn’t play well, the team will likely be completely devoid of a running game.
Indy is relying on second-year man Phillip Dorsett to drastically improve in year 2, but that’s far from a given. T.Y. Hilton is still a threat to score anytime he’s on the field, but the Colts are the only team in the division with only one, true threat at the receiver position (Jacksonville has the Allen Brothers, Tennessee has Kendall Wright, Dorial Green-Beckham and Rishard Matthews and the Texans have DeAndre Hopkins, Braxton Miller and Will Fuller).
Andrew Luck will be back, but was his absence really the cause for the team’s subpar 2015? Matt Hasselbeck played much better than Luck did. I’m not ready to suggest Luck is a bad quarterback, but it’s interesting to note that the Colts went 2-5 with Luck, and 6-3 without him.
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Every other team in the division, except for the Colts, drastically improved. Tennessee found an offensive identity, Houston found a quarterback and Jacksonville found a defense. Additionally, every other team gets a significant player back from injury.
The Titans get Marcus Mariota, the Texans get Jadeveon Clowney and the Jaguars get Dante Fowler Jr.
Simply put, this AFC South is no longer a weak division. One could certainly make an argument for it being the AFC’s toughest, which doesn’t bode well for the Colts.
Looking at the Colts’ 2016 schedule, there are few games that seem like easy wins for Indy. When you consider the increased strength of the division, games against the Jaguars and Titans are no longer cakewalks.
The Colts have to travel to play Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota and Oakland. Realistically speaking, there’s a chance the Colts’ season is decided during the four-game stretch from week 4 to week 7. The Colts play all three of their division rivals during that time, and failing to pick up those division victories could prove to be deadly.
Furthermore, this year will truly be a test to see how good the Colts are. Since Luck arrived in 2012, the Colts have gone 20-4 against division opponents. In fact, the Colts swept division opponents in 2014 and 2013. So six of Indy’s 11 wins in both years came as a result of soporific competition.
Luck and the Colts routinely beat up on lesser opponents, which was a reason for his gaudy stat total.
Obviously, that’s no longer the case, as you could make a serious argument for the Colts being the most incomplete team in the division.
Look, I’m not trying to suggest the Colts will flounder completely, finish 2-14 and “earn” the No. 1 draft pick. But I fail to see a team talented enough to win more than nine games. To me, this team is about as weak as the team Peyton Manning led to the playoffs in 2010. The only difference is Manning was still playing at an exceptionally high level, and the defense.
Simply put, there’s no logical reason to think the Colts will be able to overcome a tough division and a tougher schedule.
I look at the Colts and see an 8-8 team, 9-7 at the very, absolute-best-case scenario. The lack of depth is scary, especially at running back and the secondary. Nothing about this team, aside from the quarterback position, is spectacular. Everything is middle of the road.
I’ll give the Colts a win against Detroit (Week 1), San Diego (Week 3), Chicago (Week 5), the Jets (Week 13) and for argument’s sake, I’ll give them a division record of 3-3. That puts them at 7-9, on the outskirts of the postseason.
Could the Colts win the division? Sure, but I also could score a date with Anna Kendrick, and LeBron James and Kevin Durant could sign with the Philadelphia 76ers.
For the Colts to win the AFC South, Luck will have to have an MVP-caliber season, which is something he hasn’t proven he can do in a strong division. If that doesn’t happen, then the Colts will have to hope every other team flounders, opening up the possibility of an 8-8 division champ.