Detroit Lions: A high-upside offense
Detroit Lions fans are used to hearing some writer praise their offense before the season, only to watch high ambitions crumble into interceptions, drops, and drive-killing sacks.
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Not too long ago, I wrote a piece about what makes an NFL offense successful, predicting that the Jacksonville Jaguars are the offense next-in-line for a breakout year. Most people already have an eye out for Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas, Chris Ivory, and the rest of the gang, but if you want a possible sleeper, look no further than the Detroit Lions.
Matthew Stafford caught some criticism for discussing why the Lions offense could be more difficult for defenses to handle without Calvin Johnson. At first, I also looked at his comments and saw them as overly optimistic drivel coming from a quarterback trying to deal with the loss of a Hall of Famer, but after writing about NFL offenses, I realized that Stafford has a point.
Two things hurt the Lions more than anything else last season. Most obviously, their offensive line was horrendous, and it was quite striking to see a player like Larry Warford take a massive step back after being one of the NFL’s top young guards in 2013 and 2014. Secondly, the Lions had no depth at the wide receiver position.
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When Johnson was healthy, he, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron, and Theo Riddick were enough for Stafford. However, it’s a bit of a problem when 43 Lance Moore targets and 18 TJ Jones targets represent the rest of the depth. Additionally, depth becomes even more important when Megatron’s team-high 149 targets are no longer on the table.
By signing Anquan Boldin to an offense that already inked Marvin Jones (the best free agent wide receiver), the Lions have done something that shouldn’t be underrated: they’ve built a passing offense with layers.
Caldwell said the plan is to play Boldin both inside and outside initially.
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) July 28, 2016
Playing Boldin both inside and outside is obvious, and that’s a big part of the appeal with a player who brings nothing in the speed department. Boldin may be old, but he more than makes up for it with strength, hands, and savvy. He will work hard in the running game, he will make important plays in traffic on third down and in the red zone, and he won’t make frustrating mistakes. Remember, he had 85 and 83 receptions, respectively, in his first two seasons with the San Francisco 49ers.
Golden Tate’s difference in stat line from 2014 to 2015 is quite interesting to note, because he went from an explosive 99 catches for 1,331 yards (13.4 yards per catch) to a Rashad Greene-esque 90 catches for 813 yards and nine yards per reception in 2015.
Better blocking could help him break more big plays, but Boldin alone should help Tate. By being able to move around their receivers, they can do a better job of working Tate into space or getting him open down the field. He may be just 5’10”, but there’s a reason why he’s been compared to Steve Smith Sr. throughout his career: he’s as tough as they come when the ball is in the air.
As for Jones, he might be one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL, even if my colleague Justin Huffman called him the most overrated player on the Lions. Jones is an incredibly fluid wideout with solid hands, plenty of wiggle after the catch, and serious red zone ability. After all, he once caught ten touchdowns in a season.
Jones has been overshadowed by top-five receiver A.J. Green for far too long, and I guarantee that he will leap out of his shadow as one of the top two receivers on the Lions offense. Just look at the exact way both Bob Quinn and Caldwell praise him as a route-runner. These two understand that you need versatility, different types of receivers, and depth in order to build a high-octane passing attack, and Jones and Tate are the right players to lead the way.
Beyond that, the Lions have the right complementary pieces in place. Focus on tight end Eric Ebron’s drops too hard, and you’ll miss the fact that his catch rate jumped all the way up to 67.1% last year. Few tight ends succeed as rookies in the NFL, but it’s players who take a real leap in their second season that do well in the future. Ebron’s athleticism has never been put into question, and with a catch rate like that, it’s hard to argue against the notion that he’s getting “there” mentally, too.
Then they have Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah coming out of the backfield to catch passes, and I doubt they need their playmaking credentials established.
All of this sounds fantastic, but the Lions won’t be able to win by just throwing the football. After a slow start to the season, Stafford quietly seemed to reach new heights as a mature passer at the age of 27, completing 67.2% of his passes with 32 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 7.2 yards per attempt, a 97.0 QB Rating, and 4,262 passing yards.
Unfortunately, the Lions finished just 18th in points per game and 20th in yards per game. They received Stafford’s crispest season yet, but their poor line play did them in. The Lions averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, but it looks like they have done what they can to make sure it doesn’t happen.
Abdullah’s main issues in his first season were with fumbling the football, because he was actually a bright spot as a rusher with 4.2 yards per carry. Between Joique Bell and Riddick, however, nobody else on the Lions could muster more than 3.5 yards per carry.
That won’t happen again. Young players like Warford, Laken Tomlinson, and Riley Reiff at right tackle should perform better up front, and Taylor Decker can make an immediate impact as a run blocker, even if he has some rookie lumps in pass protection.
Stevan Ridley is the X-Factor for the running game, though, because the Lions needed someone powerful to pair with Abdullah. Physicality is so important in today’s NFL, which is part of the reason why I like the additions of Boldin, Decker, and Ridley. They were missing that element, and if you want to bet on players, hedging your bets on this trait as a tie-breaker can be helpful.
Due to his proneness to injury, Ridley can’t be trusted to make an impact across 16 games for the Lions, but they can ask him to be an equalizing factor up the middle, overcoming poor blocking in the process. A former 1,200-yard rusher, Ridley is talented, and he is 27.
If Ridley can’t prove he ‘s healthy enough to earn a spot, then the Lions can use Zach Zenner as that big back. For what Zenner lacks in past production in comparison to Ridley, he makes up for it with his ridiculous athletic ability (peep the vertical).
A common theme I see with the best offenses in the NFL (Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots) is a hard-nosed running game combined with a passing attack that can beat a defense in a variety of ways by taking advantage of talented receivers with stylistic differences. The common thread in all of this is an over-arching philosophy that is maintained, yet flexible enough to prevent a team from being game-planned against.
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Given Stafford’s improvements, the added depth at the wide receiver position (TJ Jones’s development will be interesting to watch), and the re-enforcements at running back, the ingredients are there for the Lions. That should excite fans, especially those who like the defense more than I do.