NFL Week 4: Best Picks Against the Spread

Last week was a mess, so for NFL week 4 its all about defense and consistency. These are your best

The NFL makes no sense. We know that. It’s our job to hang on as long as we can. As we enter NFL Week 4 picking games against the spread, we begin bye weeks to limit our options. No matter, there is great value to find.

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As always, we’ll be looking at the two games that we feel are the best values, spreads, or matchups in regards to the game lines and making our picks.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, discuss the best picks against the spread in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2016 Record Against the Spread:

Dan Salem: 3-3
Todd Salem: 2-4

We went against our own rules last week and got burned. No more giving points on the road, unless the home team has a really bad defense. Time to pick some winners.

Todd Salem’s Week 4 Picks ATS

Carolina Panthers -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Earlier this week, we listed the preseason darlings who were currently struggling that we believed in the most moving forward. I named Carolina as the most likely 1-2 team to make the postseason. The reason being is a game like this. The Panthers look like a mess, yet facing a defense like the Atlanta Falcons’ can heal all wounds.

Football Outsiders ranks Atlanta as the 30th defense in the NFL. Even in their wins, the Falcons’ defense has been poor. The not-so-little secret about Carolina is it may have just finished playing the two best defenses in the NFL in Denver and Minnesota. The Panthers looked bad against them, but that isn’t unexpected. They should look good this week.

Minnesota Vikings -4 vs. New York Giants

The Giants probably aren’t very good. They are overly sloppy, commit horrendous penalties, and generally struggle to find consistent offense. They also have a defense that doesn’t sack the quarterback and doesn’t force turnovers. New York was pretty fortunate to begin 2-0.

Their loss to Washington last week had nothing to do with Odell Beckham‘s temperament and everything to do with pretty much everyone else. If the team stopped fumbling; if it didn’t ruin drives with its own mistakes; if Will Tye could run a proper route without being rerouted by a much smaller defender; etc.

I don’t see any way New York wins this game in Minnesota. My only worry is if the Giants lose, but cover. However, you’re always taught not to grab an underdog on a mid-to-small line if you don’t think it can win outright. I’ll lay the points.

Dan Salem’s Week 4 Picks ATS

New England Patriots -4.5 vs Buffalo Bills

Picking the Patriots at home is always a good idea and this line is all about overvaluing a Bills team that finally played a good football game last week. Buffalo was at home against a Cardinals team that traveled a very long way to play them. They won’t be so fortunate in Foxboro.

New England likely has the best defense in the league and continues to impress in new ways every week. Jimmy Garoppolo will likely be back for this game and the Pats are giving up less than a touchdown. I expect them to win by at least that much. The Bills have many holes and New England always exploits weakness.

Denver Broncos -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s unclear to me what the Buccaneers have done to make them an appealing bet, but the Broncos have absolutely dominated thus far. Denver is really starting to click on offense, with a defense that will give Jameis Winston fits. I don’t see any way that Tampa Bay keeps this game any closer than a touchdown.

Anytime the best defense in the NFL, or second best if you like New England better, is giving merely a field goal, you pick them. Defense has been winning week after week, so put your money on Denver’s. With only a few mismatches to choose from this week, the Broncos against Tampa is probably the most appealing.

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