New England Patriots: Dynamics Behind A Jimmy Garoppolo Trade

Jimmy Garoppolo being traded by the New England Patriots is quite possible this offseason, but how would a deal work for everyone involved.

With Jimmy Garoppolo headed to the final year of his contract and a host of potential suitors potentially ready to bid, it seems like now is the time for the New England Patriots to trade the young quarterback. Despite this, there are plenty who believe the Patriots should hold onto Tom Brady‘s biggest insurance policy.

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Fresh off of the most exhilarating comeback in the history of professional sports, the Patriots are back to business in the offseason. Their most important moves will pertain to impending free agents like Dont’a Hightower, LeGarrette Blount, and Logan Ryan, as well as tendering top cornerback Malcolm Butler appropriately. These players are among their best, yet trade scenarios swirling around Garoppolo figure to soak up the most offseason headlines.

And, well, why shouldn’t they? Quarterbacks are at a premium, and there is at least one new head coach with his eyes set on Garoppolo as an offseason prize. Furthermore, Garoppolo played at a high level in both of his regular season starts, notching eight yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Garoppolo is a former second-round pick with a quick release, adequate physical tools, excellent movement in the pocket, and above-average accuracy. He’s the type of quarterback you could see a team like the San Francisco 49ers or Cleveland Browns falling in love with and acquiring.

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The biggest hitch with any trade for Garoppolo is the Patriots asking price, because New England will likely want a first-round pick in return. That’s a perfectly reasonable request from their perspective, even if it seems outlandish to some fans. Seeing as how Garoppolo’s sample size of NFL starts is so small, it is difficult to justify that type of a price tag, especially since he’ll want a big contract in about a year.

That alone should tell you that the Patriots are fully aware of the legitimacy of the counterarguments. You know, the arguments that vocally say the Patriots should hold onto Garoppolo and avoid trading him, because he’s their best bet at maintaining a Super Bowl pace if anything were to happen to Brady.

The Patriots spent a second-round pick on Garoppolo for a reason, and they’ve also poured resources into developing him. He exceeded expectations on the field in 2016, which means his stock should be higher than “original round” value in their eyes.

Clearly, the Patriots know what Garoppolo can bring to the table for them. He’s not a top-10 quarterback (forget about any “replacing Brady” talk), but he looks like someone who can move the ball and win games. Furthermore, Garoppolo has some similar traits to Brady, which allows him to fit the system without much changes.

While “fitting the system” is beneficial, the Patriots have shown that they don’t need to be constrained to a specific style of play to win games. This wasn’t sustainable, as evidenced by an immediate shutout loss to the Buffalo Bills, but the Patriots won 27-0 against the Houston Texans with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback.

Josh McDaniels is still the Patriots offensive coordinator, which means they have every reason to have the utmost confidence in their ability to assemble a viable gameplan around any quarterback. If Brissett, a rookie flaws, could lead the team to an impressive victory over a playoff-caliber team, then they don’t have to be as miserly with Garoppolo as some believe.

Sep 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Cardinals 23-21. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

On the topic of Brissett, the Patriots did draft him in the third round (91st overall). While this was a good 29 spots below Garoppolo’s draft position, the Pats seemingly valued him higher than several other teams around the league. They are high on Brissett, and he was encouragingly mediocre in his two 2016 starts.

Brissett and Garoppolo are current examples of a strategy the Patriots started to explore when they drafted Ryan Mallett with a third-round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. Mallett hasn’t amounted to anything in the NFL, but the Patriots would also constantly tease him in trade rumor mills before finally aggressively shopping him in the offseason until he was dealt.

Superficially, Mallett appears to be a warning sign to Patriots fans who have their hopes up about Garoppolo. However, it’s not a one-for-one situation. Unlike Garoppolo, Mallett never had a successful run of games in the regular season or preseason. A wildly erratic passer with a cannon arm that he could not control, Mallett was frequently referred to as a “statue” in the pocket, and he didn’t exactly have Drew Bledsoe‘s savvy to make up for it. The Patriots played up illusions of receiving a second-round pick, but they merely settled with a conditional sixth or seventh-rounder from Bill O’Brien‘s quarterback-needy Texans.

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When the Patriots drafted Mallett, it seemed like they were picking up an insurance policy and, if necessary, a possible heir to Brady’s throne. Instead, he became cheap trade bait, and the Patriots can consider themselves lucky they were able to get anything out of a quarterback who showed absolutely no growth during his time with the team.

Garoppolo, on the other hand, has shown promise. Indeed, he is important to the Patriots as Brady’s backup, he could replace Brady for good in the worst-case, and he has promise on his own. This is why the Patriots are under no real pressure to deal him. However, because he is heading into the final year of his deal, his value is at its highest at this point, and the Patriots have shown in the past that they value quarterback trade-chips in this QB-focused league.

Sam Bradford has been a key example for those touting the possibility of the Patriots prying a first-round pick from a team in a trade. Older with an extensive injury history, more expensive contract, and possessing mediocre stats, Bradford somehow brought the Philadelphia Eagles a 2017 first-round pick and 2018 conditional fourth-round pick from the Minnesota Vikings. Garoppolo has far less experience and a lower draft pedigree than Bradford, but you could argue that he’s shown significantly more promise as a future investment than Bradford did last year.

Teams get desperate when they need quarterbacks, and they are at their most desperate if somebody goes down. Logic that errs on the side of caution states that the Patriots should trade Garoppolo before the draft, because a team might choose to find their answer in a rookie instead. But if they don’t trade Garoppolo before then, they could reap even bigger rewards if an injury happens or if a team finally decides to cave.

Based on the fact that Kyle Shanahan has shown the most interest in Kirk Cousins (highly unlikely to move teams) and Garoppolo (likely to move teams), there’s a chance other coaches would prefer to trade for a quarterback than hitch themselves to a rookie. Garoppolo is no sure thing and, again, he’ll be more expensive faster due to being on an expiring contract. That said, he has shown no red flags so far and has more positive NFL experience than any rookie or most backup signal-callers. That alone could be enough for someone like the Browns or 49ers to get antsy and give into the Patriots demands.

If nobody gives the Pats what they are looking for, then there is no need to move him. However, it’s clear that Garoppolo’s trade value is at its highest this offseason, and the Patriots need to keep aggressively hyping him up in media reports. Send leaks to large outlets, stating that “an unnamed executive” believes Garoppolo could win a Super Bowl, be as good as Matt Ryan, or something of that nature. Considering some of the reports that circulate, I’m sure someone will pick that up to generate interest, and it could help fuel a bidding war for the Patriots.

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Whatever the case, the Pats are in no rush to deal Garoppolo, which means it would be a surprise for it to take anything less than a first-round pick to acquire him. If the Patriots do settle for less, then we’ll know in the future to think more about Bill Belichick’s pet projects at quarterback as future trade chips first, Brady’s successors second.

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