New England Patriots: Is Jimmy Garoppolo Going Anywhere?

Nobody knows the New England Patriots’ plans for Jimmy Garoppolo, but could strengthened interest from the Cleveland Browns be enough to get a deal done?

New England Patriots second-strong quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is destined to get his shot as a possible franchise quarterback in this league. But whether that’s as the successor to Tom Brady remains to be seen. Brady’s notoriously rigorous preparation and training has made it seem like he will play for another handful of years. Patriots owner Robert Kraft reiterated that he is among those who believes the legendary signal-caller can accomplish this, saying on Monday that Brady expressed that he could play six-to-seven more years, per NFL Network’s James Palmer.

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ESPN’s Adam Schefter has been vociferously stating that Garoppolo will not be traded, but even his colleagues at ESPN believe otherwise (per NESN). Schefter is so accurate that you could conceivably count the number of times he’s been wrong, but it’s hard to understand how he can be so firm in his refusal to leave the possibility of Garoppolo being traded open.

Garoppolo’s contract ends after the 2017 season, and it might take a franchise tag for the Patriots to secure him beyond 2017. There’s little doubt that Garoppolo will want to establish himself as a starter as quickly as possible, because he would rake in some serious long-term cash if he proves that he can lead a team to victory as a starter.

Staying with the Patriots for one (or even more) year would be counter-productive. Unlike a coach or executive such as Josh McDaniels or Nick Caserio, Garoppolo doesn’t have time to wait to step into an opportunity; he needs to make as much money as possible right now.

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Because it’s so hard to envision Garoppolo staying with the Patriots beyond 2017, it’s hard to see why the Pats would be unwilling to trade him this offseason. Ostensibly, there’s no better time to swing a deal, as Garoppolo excelled in his two starts with 8.0 yards per pass attempt and four touchdowns to zero interceptions. As controversial as it may be to say this, NFL teams care quite a bit about a quarterback’s “look” (please refer to the Davis Webb hype, as well as the hype surrounding past quarterback prospects like Tom Savage). And, well, Garoppolo already nailed that part of the evaluation.

About a week ago, a source told ESPN’s Tony Grossi that the Browns will try to make another attempt to trade for Garoppolo at the owner’s meetings. The Browns current quarterbacks are Cody Kessler and Brock Osweiler. So their Week 1 starter is assumedly Kessler, who projects as a huge step down from Garoppolo under center.

The Browns probably won’t draft a quarterback with the first-overall pick, and it doesn’t appear they are interested in nabbing a lower-tier quarterback. They already went that route last year by picking up Kessler and Kevin Hogan, and it’s obvious that neither player will get them far.

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Garoppolo looks like the only strong option for the Browns and, even though the Browns aren’t interested in trading the first overall pick (duh), I’m sure the Patriots would be cool with acquiring the 12th overall pick. New England has its eyes on the New Orleans Saints No. 11 overall pick, but there’s no guarantee the Saints will part ways with that pick just to acquire standout cornerback Malcolm Butler.

In all honesty, the rumor mill surrounding Garoppolo has been much quieter than expected, and the Browns have been the only team consistently linked to the Patriots. That has to inherently hurt the amount of draft capital the Patriots can receive in exchange. But given their confidence in Brady and possible confidence in Jacoby Brissett, how much do they truly value a player who will likely end up being a one-year contingency plan? I just don’t see how Garoppolo stays in New England beyond 2018 at the absolute latest, and that would require the usage of the franchise tag to effectively force Garoppolo out of free agency.

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The Patriots usually like to get something out of their players before they leave, which is why they traded away star defenders Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins last year. It’s hard to see why the Patriots would be so desperate to keep Garoppolo for that extra year, but they—and Schefter—might know something we don’t. Brady doesn’t have the history of neck injuries that Peyton Manning did and is far more mobile, but remember how quickly Manning fell off the map in the middle of the 2014 season? I wonder if Bill Belichick fears the same fate and isn’t taking anything for granted at the quarterback position as a result.

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