2014 NFL Mock Draft: The Ultimate 8 Part 3 (21-28)

Jan 25, 2014; Mobile, AL, USA; South squad quarterback Derek Carr of Fresno State (4) throws against the North squad during the first half of a game at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Overall Player Evaluation
The story of the Carr brothers is one of the utmost uniqueness in college football. Both brothers were QBs, both played and started for Fresno State and both were ranked one of top QBs in the nation coming into the draft. Difference is though that unlike his brother David, Derek Carr has played absolutely extraordinary football as a Bulldog and has the potential to be a very successful QB in the NFL. After being red shirted after injuries his freshman year, Carr started to surmount his rise to fame at Fresno State his sophomore season, throwing for 3,544 yards (272.6 yards per game) and 26 touchdowns on 279 completions out of 446 attempts (62.6% completion). The next season Derek Carr performed even better, 4,104 yards and 37 touchdowns on 344 completions on 511 attempts (67.3% completion) along with only seven interceptions (touchdown to interception ratio of only 5.285). His best game his junior year was against San Diego State where Carr threw for a monstrous 536 yards and 5 touchdowns, completing 76.2% of his passes. Although Carr’s career till his senior year was better than his former first overall pick brother David, he decided to continue on with Fresno and play his senior year.

Eventually his decision to stay with college would end up to be one of the best decisions of his young career. As a senior at FSU, Carr had arguably one of the best senior seasons to date, throwing for the most passing yards in the nation (5,082 yards, 420 yards less than the second highest passer Sean Mannion), most touchdown passes (50 touchdown passes, 10 more than the second highest passer Jameis Winston), as well as an awesome 68.9% completion rate (would’ve been 70.08%, excluding Carr’s  217-yard performance against USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. Overall this past season Carr played great football, giving his Fresno State Bulldogs a 11-2 record and a season to remember. Reason why I am complimenting Carr’s season so much is because of his ability to put points up on the board for his team. Only once during the regular season did the Bulldogs offense score 24 points or less. In 2013 alone Fresno state was able to put up an average of 43.4 points per game under Carr’s air raid offense.

Perhaps the only reason that Carr is not rated higher in this draft is because in the Bulldog’s one regular season loss against San Jose State, even though Carr was able to throw for 519 yards and 6 touchdowns, his defense allowed David Fales and the San Jose State Spartans to go and score 62 points. Had Carr’s defense played better than they did in 2013, then perhaps SJSU could have gone undefeated and made one of the bigger bowl games than the Las Vegas Bowl against USC. As well even though Carr was playing subpar talent in the Mountain West Conference, he was still able to make minimal mistakes. For example, Carr only threw 8 interceptions all year and completed well over 60 percent of his passes. What makes Carr such a great QB choice in this years draft is that arm. Not only does Carr throw the ball with unbelievable zip, but he also has the accuracy and range to place the ball where it needs to be. As well at 6’2″, 215 pounds, Carr has the athletic makeup of a true NFL QB and with a 4.78 40-yard dash time, has the ability to make pass rushers miss and pick up small yardage when needed. Although his ability to play against better teams and validity of his stats is in question, I believe with the skill set that Carr brings to the table this draft, he should be a first round, if not top-10 draft choice come April.

Now many may wonder why I have the Bengals picking Carr out of all the other draft choices. Well the answer is quite simple. Since Andy Dalton came into the NFL he has played increasingly well as the seasons have transpired. However, every single year when the Bengals have reached the playoffs, Dalton has faltered game after game after game, throwing interceptions and completing less than 62% of his passes. What Carr’s job this next season (if the Bengals draft him) will be to backup Andy Dalton and if Dalton doesn’t perform up to expectations in the regular season or the playoffs, then put in Carr under center (or rather shotgun). Basically what Carr is going to be drafted for is for his motivation factor. Hopefully having another QB on the bench will help motivate Dalton to step up his game and play better in clutch situations and hopefully make the Bengals an actual playoff contender.

Film Analysis vs. New Mexico (brought to you by draftbreakdown.com)
Setting: November 23rd, 2013. @ Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, California.

In the best performance of Carr’s 2013 season, Carr was able to light up the New Mexico Lobos for an unheard of 522 yards and 7 passing touchdowns in a 69-28 stomping of UNM. Throughout Carr’s first drive against the Lobos’ defense, he looked calm and cool, slinging the football with relative ease, honestly. As well even when pressured, Carr was able to use his speed and rush for a first down after almost getting sacked. The Bulldog’s first drive ended in a Carr 57-yard touchdown bomb from Carr to Adams as Carr placed the ball perfectly in reach for the receiver to pull it in and run into the end zone. Where Carr really looked good was in his throwing motion. Every time he threw the football, he looked as though it took about as much effort as plugging in a toaster. First drive of the second quarter was exactly the same. Carr, with adequate time and protection, was able to go through his progressions, find his receivers and hit his targets in stride (all while exhibiting proper QB mechanics).

Carr early on in this game worked great with the long ball, throwing a tight super spiral right where the ball needed to be for the receiver to make a play for big yardage. What seemed to be working well for the Bulldogs all throughout the first half though, was the use of the swing pass or screen pass from Carr to either the lone set back or his receivers. As well, late in the second half Carr performed a move little other QBs can perform: the back shoulder fade. On a first-and-goal play, Carr was able to put up a back shoulder fade in the far corner of the end zone which, fortunately for the Bulldogs, was successfully pulled down by Josh Harper for a touchdown. In short during the first quarter, Derek Carr looked almost like a fantasy quarterback; throwing 50-yard bombs to receivers, eluding pressure and completing key fourth down plays to keep the drive alive. Countless times during the game, Carr with his cannon for an arm was able to step up and fire an accurate and deep throw for a touchdown to Devante Adams. Any quarterback with the ability to sling the ball that deep with accuracy has got to be something special. Don’t be fooled though, while Carr has an unbelievable arm, he also has the running ability of even Johnny Football. On a first-and-10 play in the third quarter, Carr used a great read option that faked out the entire defense, allowing the speedy Carr to go out and gain the first down with relative ease.

On that same drive, Carr was faced with a fourth down situation and a linebacker blitz coming from the outside. With his impeccable arm strength, Carr was able to deliver a strike to Adams for a crucial fourth down conversion. As the fourth quarter would continue to roll on, Carr’s total yards and total number of 50-yard bomb touchdowns would continue light up the scoreboard. By the end of the game, I started to wonder whether or not it was Derek Carr playing the game or the football gods playing their own messed up version of NCAA Football 2014. In the grand scheme of things, if Carr ends up getting selected by the Bengals, look for him to fit right into their team well. He has the arm strength to go deep down the sidelines to A.J. Green and over the middle to Marvin Jones if he so chooses. The reason why Carr should ever be picked in the draft is for a primarily passing offense (ahem Houston), but in the scheme of the Bengals he is only used as a motivator and hopefully one day the starter of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Why He Fits in with the Bengals
Carr knows he will most likely not start right away in the NFL unless he goes to Jacksonville, Houston, Oakland or New York (just kidding), however he could potentially give his team’s respective starters a run for their money. For example in Cincinnati, many people have been cynical and critical about starting QB Andy Dalton and his three playoff losses thus far in his career. I believe this season is an indicator season for the Red Rifle, meaning that if he doesn’t do well this season, the Bengals could be in the market for a new QB. I would just save the Bengals the time and money and perhaps another season by drafting a QB highly in the first round. Their offensive line is settled and solid and their defense is tops in the NFL in yards allowed. If the QB position can be solidified, I think that the Bengals will be golden with Dalton as their QB (and the experienced and talented Carr as his backup).