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Arian Foster projection vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

By Kevin Parvizi

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Houston Texans center Chris Myers recently praised the Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line, and it’s a unit that has two unsung heroes in Sen’Derrick Marks and Ryan Davis, who are two of the most underrated players in the NFL today. Rookie linebacker Telvin Smith has proved the draftniks right thus far, but the problem with this trio is that none of them are top-notch run defenders (Smith also has ten missed tackles). In fact, outside of the always hard-nosed Red Bryant, the Jaguars lack a true force against the run, which has been one reason for their average of 4.3 yards per carry allowed. Their run defense isn’t terrible, but it is below-average, and they have missed 116 tackles on the season, per the Pro Football Focus. The safeties are their biggest culprits, and that’s going to be a problem against Arian Foster this week.

The Jaguars haven’t faced Foster yet this season, but they’ll have to contend with this season’s second-best running back twice in their final four games. Foster has forced 35 missed tackles this season, per PFF, which is tied for fifth with Philadelphia Eagles elusive RB LeSean McCoy among all running backs. Against two comparable run defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans (4.4 and 4.2 yards per carry allowed respectively), Foster has had plenty of success. After roasting the Steelers for 102 yards on 20 carries, Foster absolutely dominated the Titans on the ground to the tune of 151 yards on the same number of carries. He returned from a multi-week injury last week against the Titans and showed minimal signs of rust, depositing 79 yards on 19 carries against Ray Horton’s unit.

Foster is averaging five yards per carry this season, and he’s already up over 900 rushing yards with an average of around 100 yards per contest. Throw in 11 total touchdowns and 31 receptions, and you can see why Foster is receiving plenty of plaudits for his elite play this season. The Jaguars could incur his wrath on Sunday, as Foster should be fully healthy after easing into things last week, so there’s little doubt that he has the ability to go off. Rashad Jennings played well as the New York Giants workhorse last week against the Jaguars before going down with an injury, and the Jags might end up having to hope for a similar stroke of luck this week, as Foster is obviously an even more talented workhorse back. That’s not to diminish anything Jennings has done this season- as he is vital to his team’s success- it’s just that Foster is a different beast.

A quick glance at the numbers confirms his unquestioned status as a beast, but he hasn’t put up more than his average number of yard per game since Week 8, when he dismantled the Titans for 151. That was the last of a four straight 100-yard performances (he has six such games this season), but I’m betting on him adding another to his total. He would have had multiple rushing touchdowns last week, but Ryan Fitzpatrick ended up cashing in on five TD passes that didn’t go in Foster’s direction.

When projecting Foster’s stats, it’s also important to take a look at what he is doing as a receiver. In each of his past four games, Foster has notched a touchdown pass, and he’s had multiple receptions in every game this season. The Jaguars are pretty good, though, at stopping running backs in coverage, and I think some of that credit has to go to Smith, who is as fleet-footed in coverage as advertised.

I think Arian Foster will at least threaten for a 100-yard game, and he’s going to get around 20 carries whether or not this game is close. I don’t anticipate this game being a blowout, but I would be surprised if the Texans aren’t able to add another W. Foster should put up something around a 20-100-1 line on the Jaguars, which falls in line with his season averages. As a pass-catcher, I expect him to add a couple of catches, but I don’t think he’ll do any damage with those receptions.

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