The Buffalo Bills are coming off of an impressive 26-10 win over the playoff-hopeful Cleveland Browns, and that victory has helped keep the Bills own playoff hopes alive. It’s an extremely difficult fight for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, but the Bills have given themselves a shot at 7-5. That said, their chances are slim, since they will have to face the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, and Denver Broncos; those are the NFL’s three best teams. That said, a game against the winless Oakland Raiders should be an easy one, though the Kansas City Chiefs loss to the Raiders showed us that there’s no such thing as a free win.
1. Looking at playoff chances
It’s not impossible for the Bills to make it into the playoffs, but it is going to be an uphill battle. The San Diego Chargers are the lone leaders in the Wild Card pack at eight wins, as there are several teams tied at seven. Thus, the Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Browns, and Bills are all jostling for those final two spots with the Chargers. The Bengals are 8-3-1 and could feasibly lose the division, but then another AFC North team would replace them.
The Bills have the toughest remaining schedule of any of those teams, and that’s definitely working against them. Realistically, the are probably going to go 8-8, and there’s very little chance of them getting ten wins, which is probably what it will take to punch in a ticket. They could get away with nine, but that means they will have to beat one of the Patriots, Packers, or Broncos. It’s not impossible, and the rivalry battle with the Pats is probably their best shot.
2. Stopping Emmanuel Sanders
Their first game against an elite opponent will be on Sunday, and one of the potential mis-matches that the Denver Broncos will present is No. 2 receiver Emmanuel Sanders. He’s been beyond sensational in his first season with the team, and he’s taken well to life with Adam Gase and Peyton Manning, who have both found ways to take advantage of his unique skill-set. As most of us have known all along, Sanders can line up inside or outside, and he can win downfield or on shorter routes with his ability to generate YAC. Sanders does it all, and he runs one of the NFL’s most advanced route trees now that he’s with the Broncos. This versatility makes him a difficult matchup for anyone, but the Bills could have a great deal of trouble against him.
According to Football Outsiders, the Bills lone weakness in pass defense is against No. 2 receivers, as they generally do a great job of stopping No. 1 guy. He may be dealing with an injury, but Demaryius Thomas is more than just a No. 1 receiver, so the Bills are facing a different kind of beast. Thomas also takes pressure off of Sanders, who might have the only plus matchup. His ability to win anywhere will make it difficult for the Bills to account for him, and I think he should scare the Bills even more than Thomas. For the Bills, the question is how much energy they want to focus on either receiver, because they have to pick how often they will concentrate on one of those two stars.
3. Sammy Watkins dealing with consistency issues?
Kyle Orton did not have the best of days last week against an excellent Browns pass defense, but the biggest story in the passing game is definitely Sammy Watkins. He is currently riding a four-game streak of mediocre performances, as he’s notched three or four catches in each of those games with no more than 35 yards in any one game. It’s fair to wonder if injuries are the main culprit here, because he’s dealing with a hip injury after probably rushing back too soon from a groin issue.
Kelvin Benjamin is the perfect example of a receiver who was expected to have consistency issues, and those have come in the form of drops and a low catch rate. That said, he’s also been very impressive this season due to his playmaking ability. Meanwhile, Watkins didn’t look like a receiver who would have consistency issues in the NFL or issues with adjusting to the pro game, because he showed an in-depth knowledge of the nuances of the position in college. While Odell Beckham Jr. was actually more polished, Watkins’s hands and route-running were also clearly at an NFL-quality.
Therefore, I’m inclined to think that Watkins’s consistency issues stem from injury and quarterback play. It’s important to realize that he’s catching just 52% of everything thrown at him, and while some of that is his fault, he also isn’t being targeted on easy throws. I thought Watkins would end up being the OROY, but that isn’t going to happen unless if he can regain his mid-season form…and then some. That said, he still looks like a great wide receiver, and we should expect elite things in the future. I’m not concerned, and I don’t think anyone should be truly worried.
4. Fred Jackson has a tough matchup ahead
The Buffalo Bills decided to give Fred Jackson a season-high 21 carries in last week’s win over the Browns, and I wonder if they will make him their workhorse on Sunday against the Broncos. If so, he’s headed for a tough matchup against a defense that is allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which is the second-lowest total in the league. Jackson averaged just 3.3 yards per carry last week, and he’s only at 3.9 yards per pop on the season. In all honesty, the blame lies on the offensive line, because they haven’t blocked well for anybody this season. It could be a long day for the Bills offense if they can’t get the running game going, because Orton isn’t capable of leading the offense against a secondary that boasts the elite Chris Harris Jr., who is more than capable of shutting down Watkins and is playing as well as any CB this season, Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and Rahim Moore.
5. Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes bringing the heat
Which team has the best 4-3 defensive end duo in the NFL? That’s not an easy question, but it’s a two-team race in my book. And while I would pick the Seattle Seahawks duo of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, there’s no doubt that the Buffalo Bills DE bookend of Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes comes in as a too-close-for-comfort second.
Per the Pro Football Focus, Hughes is tied for third among 4-3 DEs in total pressures with the great Cameron Wake, while Williams is in sixth. Bennett is first and Avril ninth, so you could argue that, as far as pure pass-rushing goes, the Bills have the best duo. And you know what? I would agree with that? I only picked Bennett and Avril because of Avril’s insane athleticism and Bennett’s elite run D, but it’s becoming clear that no DE duo is better at going after the passer than the Bills pair.Williams signed a fat contract to end up in Buffalo, and the Bills will have to give Hughes a hefty deal, though not a record one, in order to keep him around. I mean, has there been a better former-bust-turned-breakout-star story than Hughes over the past two seasons? Off the top of my head, I can’t think of one.
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