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Derek Carr could be in trouble if Andre Holmes, WRs don’t step up

By Kevin Parvizi

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At 8-6, the Buffalo Bills have a legitimate shot at making it into the playoffs after upsetting the Green Bay Packers by harassing Aaron Rodgers and benefiting from uncharacteristic drops by the likes of Jordy Nelson. Their win over the Packers was no fluke, as they dominated Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos equally dangerous passing attack, though they couldn’t quite overcome the Broncos ground-and-pound and defense. The Oakland Raiders don’t really have a true ground-and-pound or a tough, well-balanced defense, and both of their wins this season have come on the strength of brilliant individual efforts from promising rookie quarterback Derek Carr.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like we can count on Carr to have another big day, because the Bills pass defense is arguably the best in the NFL. Not only do they have a breakout star corner in the secondary in Corey Graham to go with the young and talented Stephon Gilmore, but they also have an elite defensive line comprised of Mario Williams, Kyle Williams, Marcell Dareus, and Jerry Hughes. According to Pro-Football Reference, the Bills allow just 5.4 yards per attempt and have intercepted 19 passes compared to 14 touchdowns allowed. They make plays, they destroy quarterbacks, and they don’t give an inch through the air.

Carr will have to square off against the best 4-3 DE duo in the NFL, as Williams and Hughes have 13 and 9.5 sacks with Dareus and the other Williams providing a combined 15 sacks in between the ends. Mychal Rivera has been Carr’s main safety valve when he’s under pressure, and he rode Rivera to that big win over the San Francisco 49ers. Against the Bills, Carr will need more help, and that’s where the wide receivers come in.

It’s no secret that Carr has to live with one of the NFL’s worst wide receiver corpses, and it’s why most Raiders fans would love to see the team draft Alabama’s Amari Cooper, who was a bona fide Heisman candidate this season. Cooper is a true No. 1 receiver and a legit top-five pick who can win at just about any level of the field, and that would make him a valuable piece for the Raiders organization. Right now, they don’t have anyone like that, and it makes drafting a receiver with such a high pick justifiable, especially since Carr deserves/needs to have a true weapon of Cooper’s caliber.

The closest thing that Carr has right now to a Cooper-type player is Andre Holmes, who has talent but isn’t the most consistent player around. With James Jones operating as the clear possession receiver in the Raiders offense, Holmes is the guy Carr and the offense count on to make the splash plays. He’s averaging 14.5 yards per reception and has four touchdowns as the team’s best vertical threat, but the issue is that Holmes has a 48.8% catch rate. That’s beyond dreadful, and in the 11 games he’s had with at least five targets, he’s caught more than half of those targets just three times. He’s also had just five games with at least 50 receiving yards, so it’s clear that Holmes isn’t someone Carr can rely on, even if he’s his best shot downfield.

For the Raiders to defeat the Bills and end the AFC East squad’s hopes of reaching the playoffs, they will need to throw the football effectively against an elite defense. Good blocking is obviously something that the Raiders need, especially since it will also help Latavius Murray and the running game against an equally fearsome run defense. But for me, the key for the Raiders and Derek Carr will be the performance of the wide receivers, because I don’t think they’ve held up their end this season.

Jones is a solid, chain-moving wideout, but it’s Holmes who could hold the key to this game.Even though both of their victories game when Holmes didn’t play well, they will need him to impose himself on the game against the Bills defense. Carr won’t have much time to throw, but when he does, he needs to know that his No. 2 receiver will be open.The Bills are at their weakest against No. 2 receivers, which makes Holmes’s job on Sunday afternoon an even more important one. Not only will he be tasked with making plays, but he’ll have to do better than his 48.8% catch rate against this lockdown pass defense.

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