Baltimore Ravens Friday Fades: Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith

The Baltimore Ravens are currently slated to the make the playoffs, but they are still locked into a scrum at 9-5. The expectation for John Harbaugh’s squad is clearly to win their upcoming battles against the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns, and there’s plenty of motivation beyond just the drive for the playoffs. Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison would probably love nothing more than to stick it to their former employers, while the Browns and Ravens obviously have bad blood brewing between them. While the Browns are no longer a playoff threat, they will be a formidable spoiler squad for the Ravens.

1. Justin Forsett‘s breakout a credit to him and the guards

There’s no doubt that Ravens running back Justin Forsett has been one of the stories of the season, and his own good nature makes this breakout campaign all the more heart-warming. With over 1,100 rushing yards on just 208 carries, Forsett has carried the load for the Ravens and has been an indispensable part of this offense. After how poorly Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce played last year behind rather atrocious blocking, Forsett’s 5.4 yards per carry and consistently impressive displays have been a welcome sight. Throw in eight rushing touchdowns and 38 receptions, and you have a player who has done more than just fit into Kubiak’s running scheme perfectly.

Forsett obviously deserves plenty of credit for his own success, but I’d like to highlight the efforts of the guard duo that is most likely the best in the NFL right now. It’s common knowledge that Marshal Yanda is an elite player who regularly dominates defensive players in the running game, but Kelechi Osemele has proved to be a real missing piece for this offensive line. Nagging injuries and a back issue eventually caused him to miss just about the entirety of the 2013 season, but he has been playing at a surprisingly elite level this year. We always knew Osemele had talent and more than enough strength to grade roads in the running game, but I don’t think anybody saw this kind of a year coming. Forsett is fast enough to take defenses to church on the outside, but Yanda and Osemele have been taking defenses to the construction site with their powerful blocking.

After the Ravens offensive line was an utter joke last season, they have turned into an elite unit here in 2014, and that’s without Eugene Monroe playing at his best on the left side. If you don’t think the Ravens line has been a top-five unit, then maybe the stats over at Football Outsiders will change your mind.

2. How about the OLB duo?

I’m sure there are plenty of people who don’t recognize the Ravens guard duo as an elite tandem, but hopefully nobody glosses over the Ravens big-name outside linebacker duo. Terrell Suggs is in the midst of another phenomenal season, and his consistency is beyond remarkable; he’s a Hall of Famer in my book. His partner in crime Elvis Dumervil isn’t as much of a tone-setter in the running game, but you’d be hard-pressed to find five better edge rushers. Dumervil has been hot all season long with 17 sacks, but it seems like he still isn’t getting enough recognition despite the ridiculous sack totals. The crazy thing is that he was this good last season when he had “only” 9.5 sacks. There have been just five games this season in which Dumervil has went without a sack, while he’s had five games with at least two sacks to his credit.

Suggs and Dumervil will both be keys to victory for the Ravens on Sunday against the Texans, since they each have important jobs. Dumervil generally faces easier assignments as the left outside linebacker, and he’ll face a whipping boy in Derek Newton, who is a subpar pass protector in every sense. He’s no longer an embarrassment at right tackle, though, since he is a strong run blocker. Speaking of the running game, Suggs is an elite run defender who will certainly have his hands full on Sunday. Not only will he have to work against Duane Brown when going after- likely- Case Keenum, but he’ll also be busy trying to wrap up the elite Arian Foster, who has made defenses look silly all season long.

3. Torrey Smith making plays

We all knew the Baltimore Ravens needed to give star receiver Torrey Smith a legit No. 2 wideout, since Smith is the kind of receiver who needs a strong No. 2 guy to help him out. Steve Smith has been that guy for the Ravens, but Torrey has definitely resumed his role as the clear-cut No. 1 guy. Smith is one of the NFL’s premier playmakers at the position, and, according to Advanced Football Analytics, 49.83% of his targets have come from at least 15 yards downfield, but it is a bit surprising to see that he is only averaging 15.6 yards per reception. Uh, only? Right, he normally puts up around 17 yards per pop, which is rather ridiculous, so 15.6 is a noticeable career low for the former Maryland star.

Smith hasn’t gone off since torching the San Diego Chargers defense with two receiving touchdowns, but he could have a big day against the Texans. There isn’t anyone capable of hanging with him downfield, and I could see him delivering a couple of big plays against a defense that has struggled with receivers of Smith’s skill-set. Both Smiths are more than capable of stretching the field, so that’s one big advantage this team has over the Texans.

4. Pass coverage only question

The Ravens are probably one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, because they have a solid passing game with Joe Flacco and his WR duo, a nice running game led by Justin Forsett and the guards, a stout run defense that allows just 3.7 yards per carry, and an elite edge rushing duo. One thing eludes the Ravens, though, and that is a steady secondary. Jimmy Smith turned in a true shutdown corner, and that made his season-ending injury all the more damaging to the Ravens defense. The fact of the matter is that nobody else in the Ravens secondary is playing half as well, and Lardarius Webb has been one of the most disappointing players in the league season.

That said, there are worse pass defenses around the league, and the Baltimore Ravens defensive backs can get away with some poor coverage here and there, simply because they have a great pass rush in front of them. They also have Will Hill, but you could only imagine how many issues they would haven in coverage without a excellent coverage safety.

5. Joe Flacco a top ten QB this year?

It’s amazing how much praise and blame quarterbacks get for stuff that is beyond their control, and Joe Flacco has been on both sides of this equation. We all remember the ridiculous “elite” claims after the Ravens won the Super Bowl beyond some truly remarkable postseason play from the confident QB, and nobody will ignore that contract anytime soon. Flacco had a dreadful 2013 season, but several things went against him. He didn’t have a running game, he had just one real weapon to throw it to in Torrey Smith, and the Ravens offensive line could do nothing to help him or the running backs.

Contrast that to what he has around him this season, and the differences are clear. He has Forsett, Smitty, and an elite Osemele on his hands this season, and that’s just mentioning the three biggest names. Flacco has been solid this season, and there’s a chance he has been one of the best ten quarterbacks in the league this year. He’s averaging 7.4 yards per attempt with a completion percentage above 64%, and he has just nine interceptions compared to 23 touchdowns. With the 10th-best WPA and the 6th-best EPA, the analytics look on Flacco favorably, and both Kubiak and Dennison have done a great job of making sure that Flacco is in an offense that uses its skill position players wisely; Flacco hasn’t forced much this year.

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