Alshon Jeffery overtaking Brandon Marshall?

The Chicago Bears were supposed to be a playoff team this season, but their frustrating collapse has turned them into a team so dysfunctional that nobody is safe. Jay Cutler, Marc Trestman, and Phil Emery could all be looking for new jobs in the 2015 offseason, and ESPN’s Adam Schefter recently reported that the Bears could be so desperate to unload Cutler’s contract that they would send a draft pick to the team that acquires him. We’ve always known that it would be difficult to find a trade partner for Cutler, so this report shows that the Bears might be extremely serious about dealing the veteran quarterback.

Cutler has been poor this season, and that much is obvious. The defense has been even worse this season, but anybody who saw their roster before the season knew that this would be the case. One of the under-the-radar disappointments this season has been No. 1 receiver Brandon Marshall, who was one of the top receivers in the league last year but finished his 2014 campaign with a season-ending injury in Week 14. Although Marshall wasn’t truly bad, he was merely mediocre, and that simply isn’t good enough given his elite expectations. Of course, injuries played the biggest role in this, but his decline in numbers weren’t all on Cutler.

Marshall was playing at a Hall-of-Fame level in his first two seasons in Chicago with at least 100 receptions, 1,295 yards, and ten touchdowns in each year, so his numbers this season represent career lows. Even when adjusting for three less games played, Marshall’s numbers still don’t look as good. He averaged 94.3 and 80.9 receiving yards per game in 2012 and 2013 with 12.8 and 13.0 yards per reception, but he managed just 55.5 yards per game and 11.8 yards per reception this season. The lower YPR is a function of the entire offense, as Cutler attempted less deep passes, which is a testament to Trestman’s overly conservative play-calling this season. As I said last week, the decrease in deep shots didn’t play to the offense’s strengths, and that’s completely on the coaching staff.

The advanced statistics also show that Marshall hasn’t been at his best, and he hasn’t been as reliable as usual. It’s important to note, however, that because he is Cutler’s favorite target, the quarterback is more likely to throw poor, desperation passes in his direction (and there were more of those this year). Still, that doesn’t adequately explain a drop in catch rate from 61.5% and 61.0% in 2012 and 2013 to a 57.5% catch rate, which is a couple of percentage points below his career average. Considering that Cutler completed just over 66% of his passes, that low catch rate from Marshall looks a bit ghastly, especially since he put up an average YPR mark of 11.8.

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These numbers don’t mean much with context due to all the caveats, but I think the best way to illustrate Marshall’s disappointing season is to compare his stats to Alshon Jeffery’s. While the offense as a whole struggles, Jeffery is quietly flourishing with 77 receptions for 1,027 yards, nine touchdowns, and a clear team lead of 8.2 yards per target and 13.3 yards per reception. Jeffery has been the team’s main playmaking threat, and his numbers look all the more impressive when you look at Cutler’s QB Rating when throwing it to him.

According to the Pro Football Focus, Jeffery’s WR Rating has been the ninth-best in the league, as Cutler has a 112.0 when throwing it to the young star. What was his QB Rating when targeting Brandon Marshall? 92.1. That seems good, but you have to remember that it’s only mediocre, since it’s 33rd among 50 qualifiers and is significantly below Jeffery’s mark.

It’s important to remember that the point of this piece isn’t that Marshall was bad this year, but rather he was a disappointment given his expectations and what Jeffery was able to do in the offense. I think most of his struggles are out of his control (injuries, poor QB play, dreadful play-calling), but the numbers show that he is responsible for some of it. Per PFF, he caught just 25% of all the deep throws (20 yards or more) in his direction, and he also dropped six passes. Throw in his low catch rate and 6.8 yards per target, and you get a guy who had worse numbers than his quarterback.

Marshall should have another big season in 2015, but it’s fair to wonder if Alshon Jeffery is the true top dog in Chicago. When comparing Marshall’s and Jeffery’s numbers this season, you start to wonder if the gap has more to do with Jeffery’s brilliance than anything. I mean, the guy dominated despite playing with the same quarterback and coaching as Marshall, so you can only wonder what he will be capable of if/when things start to go right for the Bears offense as a whole. Again, Jeffery was arguably one of the top 15 performers at the position this season (he was certainly in the top 20) despite unfavorable circumstances, and that will make the target split between him and Marshall an interesting storyline to watch in 2015, especially if the Bears do decide to deal Cutler.

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