St. Louis Rams Friday Fades: Kenny Britt, Aaron Donald
The St. Louis Rams have a chance to thwart the Seattle Seahawks bid at a playoff bye and homefield advantage, with the latter being of special importance to the Seahawks. When these two teams faced off in Week 7, the Rams won 28-26 behind some huge special teams plays, but they will have to face a Seahawks team that is on much better form right now. The Rams are capable of impressive upsets and have a legit shot at getting the win this week, but their opponents are coming off of a massive blowout of the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday Night Football in Week 16.
1. Kenny Britt actually cares
Nobody has ever questioned Britt’s upside or his ability to be a No. 1 receiver in this league, but his maturity has always been put into question. Britt was a revelation as a second-year pro, showing off plenty of upside with the Tennessee Titans by catching nine touchdown passes and averaging 18.5 yards per reception as one of the game’s best playmaking wideouts. It looked like he would be destined for stardom, but injuries, character issues, drops, neglected blocking assignments, trips to the doghouse, and terrible route-running prevented him from fulfilling his potential with the Titans.
Britt reunited with Jeff Fisher on the St. Louis Rams, and the results have been incredible for both parties. He’s been the team’s No. 1 wideout after breakout star Brian Quick went down for the season, and he’s re-established himself as a dangerous playmaker. Britt is averaging 16.1 yards per reception and is up over 700 receiving yards for the first time since hitting a career-high 775 in 12 games in his second season out of Rutgers.
The Rams have used Britt as their main field-stretcher, as 43% of his targets, per Advanced Football Analytics, have come from at least 15 yards away from the line of scrimmage. With nine yards per target, Britt has been nearly as efficient as Quick was, and he’s shown the type of physicality that helped make him such a dangerous player earlier in his career. Not only does he have speed to burn, but he’s also 6’3″ and one of the strongest wideouts in the game. Like Vincent Jackson, he has the unique skill-set to bully defensive backs on deep throws to the outside.
More importantly, Britt actually looks like he cares, as he’s even executing blocking assignments in the running game instead of looking disinterested. On jump balls, Britt fights with DBs, and he doesn’t give up on routes anymore. The Rams are only 6-9, but this team is a QB away from doing some damage, and Britt knows this. He’ll hit the free agent market after impressing for the Rams, and if Fisher doesn’t keep him around, I bet someone will reward him. The concerns aren’t going to go away (injury or character), but they have certainly been mitigated by his strong play this season.
2. A battle with Marshawn Lynch
Smashmouth NFC West battles have a tendency to be decided by the brilliance of some star players, and the Seahawks usually grind these games out by riding the talents of Marshawn Lynch. The Rams run defense has some top quality players like Aaron Donald and the underrated William Hayes at the DE spot opposite of Robert Quinn, but they are allowing 4.2 yards per carry.
Lynch struggled to just 2.9 yards per carry in the Seahawks Week 7 loss to St. Louis, but he’s on top form right now. After dismantling the San Francisco 49ers tough defense with 91 yards and a TD in Week 15, Lynch racked up 113 yards and two TDs on just ten carries against the Cardinals…and he missed the first quarter after being pretty darn sick. The Rams did an excellent job of stifling Lynch earlier this year, but they will be in for a tougher fight the second time around.
3. Disciplined tackling
In order to stop Lynch, the Rams will need to make sure that they don’t give up any free yardage to the Seahawks on the ground, because “Beast Mode” will take full advantage of it. Few backs are better than him at making defenders miss, because he can juke out defenders or run through him. His subtle moves and cuts are among the best in the NFL, and there isn’t a tougher back in the league.
The Rams have plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball, but their biggest issue is with tackling. Alec Ogeltree could be victimized by Lynch, as he’s missed 18 tackles so far this season, per Pro Football Focus. They have three other players (all defensive backs) with at least ten missed tackles on the season, and Lynch sure knows how to make fools out of DBs who take a bad angle or attempt an ill-advised arm tackle on the elite RB.
4. Winning the battle up front
Although Lynch’s shakes and power give him an advantage over the Rams if he gets past the first level of the defense, the Rams defensive line should be able to win the battle in the trenches against the Seahawks. Aaron Donald was expected to be a liability in run defense as a rookie due to his lack of size, but that clearly hasn’t been the case. Perhaps no defensive lineman has made more plays against the run than Donald, who has 40 tackles on the season to go with his eight sacks, which haven’t been a surprise. Per PFF, he’s tied for fourth in the NFL in run stop percentage, which is the percentage of “successful” tackles (tackles that were the result of a positive play for the defense) per snap played. The Rams allow just 3.4 yards per carry up the middle, which is the sixth-best mark in the league right now.
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Donald is a bona fide Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, but he isn’t the only one worth keeping a close eye on. Hayes has recorded a whopping ten tackles for loss this season, with nearly all of those TFLs coming in run defense. T.J. McDonald and Ogeltree may miss tackles, but they make up for it by being extremely active in run defense. The imposing McDonald has been one of the most improved safeties in the league this season, while Ogeltree is one of the quickest linebackers in the NFL.
That said, the St. Louis Rams defensive line is the key against the Seahawks, as they should be able to win in the passing game and running game. Right tackle Justin Britt‘s play has leveled off lately, so that’s a matchup Hayes should be able to take advantage. Quinn and Donald are obviously the two most dangerous players on the Rams defense, but you can’t count out No. 3 DE Eugene Sims or DTs Kendall Langford and Michael Brockers either.
5. The disappointing OLs
Some were surprised when the Rams decided not to make center Scott Wells a cap casualty, but I was more surprised by their decision to sign Davin Joseph, whose reputation still earned him praise despite the fact that he is clearly one of the worst guards in the NFL. Both players have proven to be tremendous liabilities up front for the Rams, and they could be exposed by the elite Seahawks defense, which boasts some of the most talented and reliable linebackers in the NFL.
Tre Mason has shown promise as a rookie, but he could be headed for an unfair matchup if he doesn’t receive adequate interior blocking. His average of 4.4 yards per carry is worth praising, as Wells and Joseph are no longer the forces they used to be against the run (it’s almost hard to believe that Wells was once a top-notch center while with the Green Bay Packers).
According to PFF, Joseph has also allowed five sacks this season, and Wells has also consistently surrendered pressure to opposing defensive linemen this season. The Seahawks strength on defense lies in their elite DE duo, and they have an equally appealing matchup on their hands. The Rams offensive line was supposed to be one of the best in the NFL, but the have been one of the most disappointing units in the league this year. Hopefully they can finish the season on a positive note, but they have their work cut out for them. That said, their worst part of the offensive line (the interior) will have an easier matchup than the tackles, as Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett are clearly the Seahawks best DLs, especially ever since Brandon Mebane went down for the season.
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