Teddy Bridgewater set to finish season on scorching pace
It took him longer than I thought it would, but Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater looks like a legitimate franchise quarterback going forward for the Vikings organization. I was a huge fan of Derek Carr‘s going into the draft, but Bridgewater was always my top guy due to his elite decision-making, accuracy, and above-average physical tools. Even as a college QB, Bridgewater displayed an NFL-caliber ability to read through progressions and make smart throws. His 11 interceptions this season have been more than I expected, but he’s also faced much more pressure than we expected him to due to the disappointing play of the offensive line in front of him.
Right now, Bridgewater is one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL, and he’s consistently progressed throughout the course of the regular season. Last week, he played the best game of his young career against a pretty darn good Miami Dolphins defense, completing a 19 of 26 passes in a crisp performance to make it an outstanding four straight games with a completion percentage of at least 70%. Even though he threw two picks against the Detroit Lions in the previous week, he was still excellent, especially since he had to face one of the league’s best pass defenses without sufficient help around him. The two picks certainly weren’t good, but he completed 31 of 41 passes for 315 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), which more than makes up for the INTs.
Bridgewater should be able to make it five straight games with a completion percentage of at least 70%, as he will face a pass defense comparable to the New York Jets pass D he carved up in Week 14 to the tune of 300+ passing yards and 11.4 yards per attempt. The Chicago Bears, per Pro-Football Reference, have allowed the second-highest net yards per attempt this season with 7.2, and it would be a disappointment for Bridgewater to finish with anything other than a strong day at the office.
When the Vikings last played the Bears, Bridgewater laid an egg with just 5.6 yards per attempt and 158 passing yards. He’s improved since then, though, so there’s plenty of reason to believe that he won’t have a similarly mediocre display. Thanks to his recent surge in stats, Bridgewater is averaging a solid 7.2 yards per attempt with an above-average 64.2% completion percentage and roughly 225 passing yards per game.
Those aren’t amazing numbers, but they are quite good for a rookie quarterback and top those of the other top rookies. Neither Derek Carr nor Blake Bortles have had much help around them, but Bridgewater has done more than those two and doesn’t exactly have an elite cache of weapons around him. I mean, at least Bortles has been able to throw it to receivers like Allen Robinson, Cecil Shorts, and Marqise Lee this season.
One big road block for Teddy Bridgewater on Sunday afternoon will be the play of the Vikings offensive line, which has been atrocious this season, especially since both Vlad Ducasse and Matt Kalil have been among the NFL’s worst linemen this season. The Bears pass rush hasn’t been as good as the money they invested in the offseason would have you think, but defensive tackles Stephen Paea and Jay Ratliff have formed a deadly duo in 2014. Interior pressure impacts quarterbacks the most, so Bridgewater might have to use his athleticism to get out of some sticky situations if the Vikings underwhelming interior can’t handle the heat that those two will almost inevitably provide.
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Looking back at the Vikings previous encounter with the Bears, Bridgewater was pressured, per Pro Football Focus, on exactly 50% of his drop-backs (16-32) and had a QB Rating of 30.9 when under pressure. Since top running back Jerick McKinnon had just eight carries in the game, I get the feeling that Bridgewater didn’t have much of a chance to make an impact on this game in his 28 pass attempts. It was an underwhelming mid-season performance from the rookie quarterback, but his offensive tackles should carry more of the blame for allowing so much pressure (Jared Allen, the Bears best DE this year, had three QB hits).
Even though the Vikings allowed six QB hits and four sacks of Bridgewater in Week 16, he still played an incredible game with an average of ten yards per attempt in the narrow loss. He’s become much more comfortable with facing pressure in the NFL, and he also won’t have to face the elite Cameron Wake this week against Chicago. Even though the Bears got the better of him earlier this year, it’s hard to see history repeating itself.
The Vikings offense has improved lately, and Bridgewater seems to have a higher comfort level with his receivers, especially since Cordarrelle Patterson has been replaced by more competent, reliable route-runners in Jarius Wright and Charles Johnson, who support veteran wideout Greg Jennings. Bridgewater has improved significantly, and it’s hard to see his hot streak coming to an end; he should be able to finish the season with five straight solid starts and plenty of positive momentum as he heads into the 2015 offseason.
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