Indianapolis Colts must contain Jeremy Hill

The Indianapolis Colts will hope that A.J. Green isn’t healthy enough to make a huge impact on this week’s playoff game, because they took full advantage of his absence when they faced the Cincinnati Bengals during the regular season, defeating the Bengals in an impressive shutout victory. Although Green is the team’s most talented player on offense, the Bengals have another star in Jeremy Hill, who is the hottest player on the team heading into the playoffs. He’s riding a three-game streak of 100-yard rushing performances, and it seems like nothing can slow him down.

Hill finished the regular season with 1,124 rushing yards on just 222 carries, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt in a sensational rookie season that was easily the best of any running back in the 2014 NFL Draft class. He came into the league with some character red flags, but nobody questioned his punishing rushing style of production at LSU. Hill has shown even more explosiveness than expected, and he’s shown more agility than we thought. It’s allowed him to be one of the most successful rookies in the class, and he’s clearly the Bengals feature back, even with the talented, shifty Giovani Bernard also on the roster.

Unfortunately for the Colts, stopping the run hasn’t been their strong suit this season, as they’ve allowed 4.3 yards per carry. That isn’t a terrible average, but it is in the bottom-half of the league, and they lack a dominant force against the run. That said, they do have a host of players who do a decent job of tackling, including notable defensive backs Vontae Davis and LaRon Landry, who has based his career on making punishing hits in a role near the line of scrimmage.

On Sunday, the Colts will have to bring their “A” game against the Bengals rushing attack, because it’s the calling card of this offense. They’ll head into the playoffs with injuries to Green and TE Jermaine Gresham, and their biggest question mark is the mercurial Andy Dalton, who is in the midst of a nasty cold streak. Despite playing in a conservative offense that emphasizes the running game and easy throws, Dalton has thrown 20 picks, and he hasn’t generated enough plays to overcome those mistakes. He keys in on his No. 1 guy far too often, and with Green less-than-100% and set to face off against an elite corner, Dalton’s inability to spread the ball around could cost the Bengals.

The good news, for the Bengals, is that their balance on offense comes from the running game, which counteracts the fact that Dalton locks in on his main target too often. Hill’s nine touchdowns and 5.1 yards per carry are scary enough, but his recent play is even more impressive. After back-to-back 140-yard performances against the Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos, who boast an excellent run defense, he had 100 yards on 23 carries as the team’s only real threat against the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Dalton hasn’t been clicking yesterday, so Hill is consistently grinding out yardage against defenses that know he is the main threat.

More from NFL Spin Zone

Hopefully the Indianapolis Colts recognize that Hill is the player who can do the most damage to them, especially since they’ve actually been a bit better at defending the pass than playing the run, largely thanks to the outstanding work of a certain cornerback (I’d wager that he’s been the best at his position this season, but Chris Harris Jr. probably has something to say about that). Stacking the box is always risky, since Mohamed Sanu has shown playmaking ability this season, and the Colts focus on the running game could depend on how healthy Green is. But even if Green isn’t looking like his usual self, he’s still dangerous, and then it would all depend on who has the upper hand in that tantalizing Green-Davis matchup.

Either way, Hill is somebody the Colts need to hold in check, especially since he’s never averaged less than 4.3 yards per carry when given at least 15 rushing attempts in a game. That season-low average is still impressive, and it came last week. Interestingly enough, 4.3 is the average number of yards per carry that the Colts surrender, but it would be a victory if they can keep him below 100 rushing yards and below five yards per carry. Despite having just five games with 20 carries, Hill has still averaged about 70 yards per game, and he never runs for less than 100 yards if he gets at least 20 carries.

The consistency that Hill displays as a rookie is awe-inspiring, and it makes him a key factor against the Colts. The Bengals won’t be able to win if the passing game struggles mightily, but the Bengals have beaten teams this season, such as the Broncos, with Hill rolling and the passing attack slumping; there are no guarantees, and the Colts have to make sure they don’t let Hill go off.

Update: Green is listed doubtful, and Jeremy Hill is now arguably the most important player in this matchup.

Next: Where do the Colts rank among the best franchises in NFL history?

Home/Indianapolis Colts