Jacksonville Jaguars Telvin Smith a clear piece of the puzzle
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense was one of the worst in the league last season with 25.6 points per game allowed, and their secondary took a clear step backwards, as the Jags allowed 6.7 net yards per attempt with a 4:1 TD:INT ratio. Josh Evans and John Cyprien failed to take enough steps forward at safety, though Cyprien’s solid end to the season gives this organization plenty of hope, and it seemed like Dwayne Gratz took a big step back after showing huge promise as a rookie in 2013. Despite the lack of success on defense, the Jaguars had two gems on the defensive line in Sen’Derrick Marks and Ryan Davis, and one of their most promising players is rookie outside linebacker Telvin Smith.
Many draftniks had Smith rated highly coming out of Florida State, and he was one of the most unique prospects in the 2014 NFL Draft class. Smith ran a 4.52 forty at the Combine, and his speed just jumps off the page. There aren’t many linebackers who are better-equipped to cover running backs than Smith, who has enough speed and athleticism to play safety. Some wanted him to change positions due to his 6’3″, 218-pound frame, but this guy was meant to be a unique 4-3 OLB.
A steal in the fifth-round of the draft, Smith has impressed as a rookie, and he racked up 31 tackles (21 solo) in the final two games of the regular season to finish the campaign with 104 tackles. The numbers don’t stand out, but they definitely look good for a first-year OLB. It’s easier to rack up tackles on a bad defense, but Smith didn’t merely rack up garbage, clean-up tackles that other players on the Jaguars missed.
Pro Football Focus’s Run Stop% uses stops as a percentage of a player’s total snaps playing the run, and stops are defined as tackles that resulted in a positive play for the defense. This takes some of the “garbage” factor away by not counting those tackles on eight-yard runs on third-and-one, and it’s a better way to measure downhill run defense. If you expand the qualifiers to 25% run snaps, then Smith was seventh in the league in Run Stop% as a rookie when looking at the 4-3 outside linebacker position. He didn’t do the best job of tackling in pass coverage, but he missed just two tackles when defending the run, and that’s huge for the Jaguars going forward.
Why is it huge? Coming into the draft, nobody questioned Smith’s pass coverage, and even the few detractors he had knew that he would develop into a strong coverage linebacker. But some wanted him to convert to safety, since they believed that he didn’t have enough size to make plays in the running game. They underrated Smith’s explosiveness, instincts, and ability to be an excellent downhill run-stuffer, and run defense may have been Smith’s calling card as a rookie, and it goes beyond those 104 tackles or the huge tackle counts in the last two weeks of the season. As a whole, the Jaguars did a credible job against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry, and Smith was a big part of that effort.
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It’s easy to see why the Jacksonville Jaguars are high on Smith, because he has shown the ability to make an impact in all phases of the game. In addition to his solid work against the run and promise in coverage, Smith added two sacks in limited opportunities as a blitzer. His speed, aggressiveness, and ability to finish plays make him a dangerous blitzer as a 4-3 WLB, and he’s a guy who could fill up the stat sheet by the time he hits his third year in the league. Those who follow the Jaguars closely think he can develop into a Pro Bowl-caliber player, and he certainly has that upside.
For Smith, it will be all about consistency going forward, whether it’s as a run defender or in pass coverage. Again, he has the blazing speed, the raw tools, and the mental acumen to make things happen, but reliability is a key trait for a linebacker. The Jaguars only invested a fifth-round pick in him, but, based on what he showed as a rookie, they’ll probably count on him to be one of their best players on defense next season, especially since they had only a handful of defenders who were bright spots of any sort last season.
There’s no doubt that Smith is already one of the Jaguars most important players on the defensive side of the ball, and you could argue that he’s their second or third-best player on defense. He brings plenty of value with his do-it-all style, as he can even provide value on special teams. The coverage stats, though, show that Smith has plenty of work to do as he heads into his second season, but most indications are that he will fulfill his potential as a top coverage LB. Smith is one of the brightest players in the Jaguars organization, and he could become a rising star as soon as 2015; all the tools are there for him to have a breakout season in the near future.