2014 NFL Playoffs: Homefield Disadvantage?

Twice it’s been close but still no cigar.

Under the current playoff format that began in 1990, there has never been a four-game sweep by the road teams in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

In fact, going back to the merger on the field in 1970, there have only been two instances (1971 and 2008) in which home teams were under .500 in this round (1-3).

The Denver Broncos (8-0), Green Bay Packers (8-0), New England Patriots (7-1) and Seattle Seahawks (7-1) were a combined 30-2 at home this season. But are all four teams primed to get beat in their first playoff game of 2014?

Let’s explore the possibilities and give some sound reasoning for four possible upsets. In other words, a little food for thought (and who doesn’t love to eat this stuff up?)

Photo Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Is this Bizarro World? The Ravens are making their eighth trip to New England, where they are 0-4 in the regular season but 2-1 in the playoffs. Including the postseason, the Patriots own an 8-3 overall record in this series but two of Baltimore’s three victories have come at Foxborough and in the playoffs.

Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has been amazing in his last nine postseason appearances, throwing 20 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in forging a 7-2 record. Meanwhile, despite a winning record in this series (6-3), Pats signal-caller Tom Brady has often been perplexed and battered by the Baltimore defense. Including three playoff encounters, the veteran quarterback has thrown nine touchdown passes while committing a dozen turnovers (10 interceptions, 2 lost fumbles) and has been sacked 18 times in those nine games.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

If you are not a fan of teams scoring a lot of points, you’ll have a blast watching this game on Saturday night.

Including a Week 8 meeting this season, the Seahawks rallied for a 13-9 win at Carolina. In each of the previous two seasons, these teams also met on the Panthers’ home turf, with Seattle prevailing in both of those games as well—by scores of 16-12 (2012) and 12-7 (2013).

That’s a total of 69 points in three games between two football teams.

While the Seahawks have won six straight games, the Panthers are on a five-game roll. If you’re going to knock off the defending Super Bowl champions, you have to sat persistent with the running game. The Seahawks have allowed 749 yards rushing in 12 wins (62.4 YPG) but have given up a combined 555 yards on the ground in losses to the Chargers (101), Cowboys (162), Rams (102) and Chiefs (190).

Meanwhile, the Panthers have totaled at least 120 yards rushing in each of their last six outings and Jonathan Stewart has been one of the hottest runners in the league.

And did we mention no defending Super Bowl champion has won a playoff game since the Patriots in 2005 (off their win in Super Bowl XXXIX).

Just sayin’…

Dec 28, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) lies on the ground after an injury in the second quarter during the game against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

For some people (including myself), this seems like the most likely of possibilities.

The Packers haven’t lost a game all season at Lambeau Field and the Cowboys haven’t lost on the road this season and in fact, have won nine straight road games dating back to 2013.

There’s been a lot of discussion this week about Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his injured calf (the latest from ESPN’s Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter). But Jason Garrett has every intention of giving the star signal-caller plenty of time to rest if he has his way.

While Rodgers is certainly in the running for league MVP honors, let’s not forget the year that Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray has enjoyed behind arguably the league’s best offensive line in 2014. The Pro Bowl performer led the NFL with 1,845 yards rushing and his 12 100-yard performances on the ground tied for the second-most in a season in league history.

Let’s also keep in mind that this is a Green Bay defense ranked 23rd in the NFL against the run and while this unit played better as of late, the Pack allowed 100-plus yards on the ground in a dozen outings.

Add in the fact that Mike McCarthy’s team has dropped two of its last three home playoff games (2011 and 2013) and the upset is certainly a possibility.

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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

The 2014 season for Andrew Luck and the Colts began in Week 1 on a Sunday night at Denver, a 31-24 setback which saw the Broncos open up a 24-0 second-quarter lead and then holding off Luck and Chuck Pagano’s squad.

This is a different looking Denver offense than the one that took the field for that prime time tilt. The Broncos have stressed the running game as of late. John Fox’s club has totaled almost as many yards rushing in their last six games (886) as they did in their first 10 outings (899) in 2014.

But what about Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, who some have speculated may not be at his physical best these days? The team is 6-3 in its last nine games after starting 6-1. In five of those nine games, Manning has thrown at least two interceptions. After throwing at least one touchdown pass in 51 consecutive games, the veteran signal-caller has failed to connect for a score though the air in two of his last four outings.

Meanwhile, Luck and his NFL-leading 40 scoring tosses take aim at a highly-ranked defensive unit that allowed 29 touchdown passes this season.

Could the Broncos be upended at home in the playoffs for the second time in three years? Stay tuned.

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