Peyton Manning deserves criticism, but don’t jump to conclusions
Denver Broncos legendary quarterback Peyton Manning did nothing to dispel the narratives that call him a choker who can’t win when it matters most, and it’s hard to defend him after he averaged a horrific 4.6 yards per attempt and led his team to just 13 points. This came against an Indianapolis Colts pass defense that was in the bottom-half of the league with 6.3 net yards per attempt allowed, per Pro-Football Reference, and allowed 27 TDs with just 12 picks to off-set those touchdowns. Considering the Colts also allowed 23.1 points per game in the regular season, 13 points scored is simply pitiful.
Basically, any negative adjective describes the performance Manning had yesterday, and I can’t get the number 4.6 out of my head; it speaks volumes about how inefficient the Broncos passing attack was against a favorable matchup. Per Pro Football Focus, Manning was 1-8 on passes that traveled beyond 20 yards down the field, and most of us can’t fathom why the Broncos decided that dialing up eight deep attempts from a weak-armed quarterback would be a good idea. That one reception was a 32-yard finesse pass to TE Julius Thomas at the beginning of the game, and it, sadly, was Manning’s high-water mark.
The Broncos should never have lost this game, and the loss is all on the passing game. Whereas the pass defense held up its end of the deal by allowing just 6.2 yards per attempt and picking off two deep shots from Andrew Luck, the pass offense helped lead the team to a 4-16 day on third downs. Meanwhile, the Broncos completely shut down Dan Herron and the Colts ground game, whereas thoroughly impressive young gun C.J. Anderson put up 80 yards in an efficient outing.
To me, it’s telling that the Broncos averaged just 0.2 yards more per pass than they did per run, and that’s simply pathetic against a pass defense that should have been overwhelmed by the Broncos weapons. Instead, the Colts took advantage of ineffective deep throws and some Andy Dalton-esque decision-making from Manning, who deserves plenty of criticism for this loss.
Every other positional unit did well, but Manning and his high football IQ came up empty despite the mis-matches his weapons would seemingly be able to create (give Demaryius Thomas some criticism, too, for dropping two passes in a disappointing outing for the elite wideout).
By every statistical measure, Manning was dreadful on Sunday. He completed just 56.5% of his passes, he posted a -.31 WPA and -8.9 EPA (both horrendous numbers), and just 28.6% of his plays were deemed “successful” to his offense, per Advanced Football Analytics. Luck didn’t have his best game, but he did complete 62.8% of his passes and had significantly better analytics than Manning in a performance that saw the young QB boss the short and intermediate regions of the field.
Pumping the brakes on the narrative
There’s no denying that Manning was the biggest reason for his team’s loss and one-and-done performance in the playoffs, but the narrative is starting to get away from itself. It’s always important to keep bad games in context, even if they are in a string of dreadful performances. It’s easy to forget, but Manning averaged at least seven yards per attempt in 14 out of 16 regular season performance and completed over 66% of his passes for just under eight yards per pass attempt. Manning tossed more interceptions than you’d like, but he put up big numbers and was easily one of the NFL’s most efficient passers.
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In fact, Manning was third in QB Rating and fourth in ESPN TQBR during the regular season, so reports of his demise may be too soon. Of course, the decline talk isn’t without merit, since he threw four picks against the Cincinnati Bengals and completed less than 60% of his passes against the Oakland Raiders to close out the season. That’s three straight underwhelming games to close out a 2014-15 campaign that has John Fox squarely on the hot seat, so the knee-jerk has extended to all areas of the Broncos organization.
Based on the talent they have on both sides of the ball, the Broncos severely underperformed in the postseason and faded a bit down the stretch due to the displays from the their passing game. Even so, Manning actually averaged more than seven yards per attempt in those games against the Bengals and Raiders, so he still managed to consistently move the ball forward. If he’s willing to play another year- and I hope he is- then the Broncos have every reason to welcome Peyton Manning back with ope arms; he was easily one of the NFL’s best five quarterbacks in the regular season.
Play to Peyton’s strengths
Manning’s physical tools have obviously declined, but I have a hard time believing that he suddenly declined at the age of 38 after one four-interception game (remember, he did have a killer third quarter in that loss). Going forward, the Broncos need to change their gameplan to a balanced offense that stresses both the running and passing games. As a passing offense, they need to emphasize stretching the field horizontally. Manning’s strength is making reads, diagnosing coverages, and finding open receivers with accurate, efficient throws.
In order to do that, the Broncos need to start exercising their depth and Manning’s brain by playing to their strengths and spreading the field with different receivers in versatile alignments, as opposed to concentrating on big plays or the vertical stretching of the field. Using Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders downfield is important, but a more spread-oriented attack makes more sense for Manning and the Broncos in 2015.
The Broncos threw passes to six different targets on Sunday, whereas the Colts hit up eight different pass-catchers. Only the Broncos and Cowboys attempted passes to just six different targets, and the Cowboys have an excuse after running the ball 28 times on offense. Manning threw it to Sanders and Thomas a combined 27 times, and that concentration of targets deviates from what the Broncos should do in order to use their QB’s strengths.
Update: It sounds like Manning should receive far less criticism than I thought.