AFC Championship: Matchups and Prediction

Nov 16, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts offensive tackle

(74) celebrates after catching a pass in the end zone for a touchdown against the New England Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium. New England defeated Indianapolis 42-20. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Colts Pass Offense vs. Patriots Pass Defense: 

The Colts have the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL this year, but that is mostly due to the volume of pass attempts by Andrew Luck. They rank sixth in Pro Football Reference’s adjusted yard per completion statistic, so even though they have a high pass volume, they are also very efficient. On Sunday, the Colts offensive line had a terrific game against Denver’s elite pass rush, so keeping that up, will be key for the offense. Their job will be a lot easier, against a Pats pass rush that has struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks lately.

In their Week 11 matchup, the Patriots only got one sack on Andrew Luck. Luck has had some issues with making bad decisions under pressure, so if the Pats are able to pressure him they will likely force a few turnovers as well.

It will be interesting to see what approach the Patriots take towards covering Indi receivers In the first game they put Kyle Arrington on T.Y. Hilton, and with some safety help they held him to only three catches. Utilizing this approach again would allow Darrelle Revis to play on both Reggie Wayne and Donte Moncrief and would open up the possibility of Brandon Browner covering a tight end Colby Fleener had a break out game against the Pats in week 11, but Dwayne Allen also left that game injured.

If the Colts start getting both tight ends involved, than I think the Pats must attempt to take one of them out of the game with Browner. Indianapolis is known for their big plays, but those big plays haven’t been there as much lately, so the check down to Dan Herron has been a major part of their game. Herron had eight receptions last week, and it will be on Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower to shut that aspect of the game down.

Advantage: Tie.

 Nobody ever really know what the Patriots are going to do matchup wise, as Arrington playing on Hilton in Week 11 probably surprised Indianapolis as much as anyone. Therefore the Pats might change it up again playing Revis on Hilton this time. Either way I think Luck will have some success, especially hitting his tight ends, but the Pats will also force Luck to make some mistakes, and I think he will have at least two interceptions.

Colts 1- 1 Patriots 

Next: Which Patriots run defense will show up?