AFC Championship: Matchups and Prediction

Jan 11, 2014; Foxborough, MA, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back

(34) runs with the ball against the New England Patriots in the first half during the 2013 AFC divisional playoff football game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Colts Run Offense vs. Patriots Run Defense: 

While Daniel Herron totaled 23 touches on Sunday, a bulk of those touches were towards the end of the game, so it may have seemed like the Colts were running a lot, but they weren’t. The Colts have shown that they are willing to pass it as much as they have to, and will completely abandon the run if ineffective. In their Week 11 meeting, the Colts running backs ran the ball 13 times for a total of four yards. Herron did not see a single touch that game, and has played better than both Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. I think the Colts will attempt to establish a running game, because it will open up play action, and the Patriots displayed weaknesses against play action this prior week against Baltimore.

Last week the Patriots had major issues stopping Justin Forsett, especially in the first half. They made some adjustments to their run defense in the second half, by blitzing Jaime Collins and Dont’a Hightower, giving them more penetration at the line of scrimmage. Herron is a very different type of back in comparison to Forsett. He is a small shifty back, who runs mostly outside of the tackles, while Herron is a lot bigger and I think the Pats will have more success against him.

Advantage: Patriots 

The Patriots ranked ninth in the NFL in run defense as opponents only average 4.0 yards per carry and Indianapolis has struggled to run the ball all year. A lot of people are excited about Herron, but he has not been as good as the hype. The game against Denver was the first time Herron received more than 12 carries in a game. He’s only averaged about 3.0 yards per carry in his last four games and the Patriots will shut him down, forcing Andrew Luck to pass.

Colts 1 – 2 Patriots