Marshawn Lynch vs. New England Patriots Run D most pivotal battle
The Seattle Seahawks have been blessed with one of the NFL’s best and most consistent weapons on offense, and it’s clear that Marshawn Lynch has been the team’s best player on offense this past season. Lynch is so consistent that he has run for less than 50 yards on just two occasions in both the regular season and postseason, and he’s averaged under four yards per carry just five times.
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots run defense continues to be strong despite another Jerod Mayo and a slow start to the season for the unit, and they ended up allowing just 4.0 yards per carry during the regular season. Vince Wilfork is back to his best as a beast up the middle, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower have blossomed into two of the best young linebackers in the game, and the secondary is stocked with strong run defenders, mainly the instinctive and sure-handed Devin McCourty.
Sure-handedness will be huge for the Patriots against the Seahawks, as Lynch is the best running back in the NFL at making defenders miss, and he forced a whopping 14 missed tackles in his 150-yard, carry-the-team-on-my-back performance against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game. This means that he forced more missed tackles in one game than Isaiah Crowell, Alfred Blue, Denard Robinson, and Doug Martin did all season.
That’s what the Patriots are up against: they have to shut down someone who averaged 4.7 yards per carry as the focal point of the offense. Lynch, who has led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, hasn’t run for less than 1,200 yards in a season since joining Seattle and is the clear danger man for the Patriots.
See, the Pats should be confident with the abilities of Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner, Logan Ryan, the apparently new-and-improved, Patrick Chung, McCourty, and the rest of the Patriots secondary to hang with receivers who had issues gaining separation against the Packers defense.
The Patriots had no issues keeping T.Y. Hilton and Andrew Luck‘s weapons in check, and while the Seahawks receivers can break off big plays thanks to Russell Wilson‘s ever-dangerous blend of play extension, smarts, arm strength, and downfield accuracy, the Patriots have defensive backs (Revis and McCourty, most namely) who can keep the pace.
While the Patriots have talented players like Collins, Hightower, and Wilfork who can star in run defense as well as a host of other solid run defenders like Rob Ninkovich and D-Mac, stopping Lynch is simply a whole different level of difficulty. The Seahawks run blocking has never truly been above-average during Lynch’s time in Seattle, but it’s the fact that he can force easily a league-high of over 100 missed tackles in a season, per Pro Football Focus, that makes him so dangerous. You can pretty much put any sort of blocking in front of him, and he’ll still have a solid day.
But do the Patriots have to shut down Lynch completely? They could feasibly get away with only allowing a “solid day” to arguably Super Bowl 49’s top MVP candidate, but there’s no doubt in my mind that stopping Lynch is the Patriots most important task. There’s a strong chance their ability- or inability- to defend the Seahawks running game will decide the Super Bowl, since we could see these two elite secondaries cancel out the opposing passing attacks. It’s also hard to see the Seahawks elite run defense giving up much ground to the Patriots rushing attack, so it all comes down to Lynch.
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The Patriots best hope at stopping Lynch is by trying to use the literal strength of their front seven to win one-on-one matchups against the Seahawks offensive line, which has several expendable pieces. One of those weaknesses is clearly not star center Max Unger, who is back to being at his best after an injury-plagued down year in 2013.
Unger is arguably the best run blocking center in the NFL, and he is an unsung hero on a Seattle Seahawks offense that receives most of its praise from the work Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch do. Of course, Unger is one reason for Lynch’s success, and he’s the lynchpin of the line. He’ll have to face off against tough defensive tackles, and the matchup between Unger and Wilfork will be almost as enticing as the Nate Solder vs. Michael Bennett battle when Tom Brady takes the field.
Lynch averaged 81.6 rushing yards per game during the regular season, and it’s incredible to think that he averaged 4.7 YPC and forced 88 missed tackles as a rusher on 280 carries. It’s incredible to think that 2.96 of his 4.7 yards per carry came after first contact, which further illustrates just how hard it is to stop him; you probably won’t get him on the first try, and it almost doesn’t matter if you can win the battle up front…he’ll still find a way to mess you up.
If the New England Patriots allow Lynch to control this game, then they allow the Seahawks to control the time of possession and move the ball with their most reliable weapon. He was arguably one of the top ten most valuable players in the league this past season, because he was the most valuable player on a team that is either the best or second-best in the NFL in 2014-15. If the Patriots can’t hold him in check, then they’ll probably be remembered as the second-best team of the 2014 season.
Wilson ensures that the Seahawks offense is more than just about Lynch, and he also ensures that their rushing attack is more than just “Beast Mode”. But if the Patriots can’t handle Lynch, then it’s hard to see them winning, barring a shock performance from Brady against the “Legion of Boom” (or even a shock performance from Blount). If the Pats can keep Lynch in check, then they have a fantastic chance at netting the W.